Tim Watts, CFO at Shield Therapeutics #STX presenting at our Life Sciences Investor Briefing Watch Now
A tier one fund name continuing to add at the lows. Very comforting.
I'd expect Equitix news shortly, now that the FEED studies have been completed. Their £33m cash injection into Uskmouth was conditional on completion of the FEED.
It also reads like Equitix are stepping in to assist with the GHR deal. That would catalyse some serious renewed interest in the stock, IMO.
The upside here is mouth-watering - although as A_clabb has stated, certainly not without risks!
I think the market has dismally failed to recognise the step change in ARB’s operations – and resultantly its forward-looking numbers – in recent weeks.
ARB commenced mining solely for its own account in April 2019.
In June, the Company generated 161 BTC. It had 2,025 machines running at beginning of June, and 2,809 by end of June. Let’s assume there was an average of 2,500 machines running throughout the month.
A further 2,500 machines have been ordered, which will be installed this month, August and September – taking the total in operation to 5,300 by 1 October.
If 2,500 machines generate 161 BTC per month, then we can assume 5,300 machines will generate around 340 BTC pm.
A further 5,000 machines have also been ordered. These will be delivered in early November – so let us assume that they’ll be installed and up and running by 1 December latest.
This will take monthly mining to around 700 BTC. [Bear in mind that the machines on order are the more efficient S17s. Monthly mining of BTC could actually be around the 800 mark come December, if we were to use the difficulty mining rates of June, but I am allowing for a slippage in mining owing to increased difficulty of mining come December.]
At $11,000, that amounts to $7.7m, or £6.2m.
2,000 machines running (in May) incurred operating cash costs of £280k pm. However, since then electricity costs (by far the largest component of cost of sales) have decreased by 39%. Accordingly, I estimate the monthly operating cash cost once all 10,300 machines have been installed to be £700k pm.
PLC cash costs annualised amount to £2.0m.
So come December this year, ARB’s monthly run rate will be pre-tax operating cash flows of £5.4m.
That equates to around £65m pa.
£65m pa – if NOTHING changes both in terms of the price of BTC and of further expansion of operations.
Capex over the past 12 months has been as much as £15m on new machines: the machines could have a useful life of as much as three years, which means sustaining capex going forward will only be in the region of £5m annualised.
In this light, ARB’s current £26m market cap seems patently absurd.
My belief is that this incredible valuation disconnect has materialised as a result of the very rapid change in circumstances for the Company, with three major bits of news coming in quick succession:
i) Aggressive expansion through acquisition of new rigs (quintupling number of rigs in operation in six months, from 1 June 2019 to 1 December 2019);
ii) Dramatic cut in CoS (39% reduction in electricity costs);
iii) Explosion in price of BTC.
It seems the market is waiting to see if BTC will hold above $10k (let alone its current level of $11k+). If it does sustain its current price range for just one more week, I’d expect a very aggressive share price rise in the near future (my own target is at least 50p before year-end – of course on the condition that BTC holds above $10k!!).
Needless to say, all jus
The price of the conversion is 0.40p. Think about it - 100 million shares issued to them in return for them giving a further £400k to the company.
WDC has effectively just carried out a £400k placing at 0.40p. That is why the SP has just moved up to flat.
Posted in: ONZ
Oh deary, he's back (again), and to be banned (again) imminently.
The man appears to have lost a fortune in Ultima Networks, despite having supported the stock for over a decade.
I would surmise that such was the devastation wrecked upon his life by the delisting of UTN, that poor Fido can't help but be bitter about the success of ONZ, which has no relation to UTN but for having successfully converted UTN into a shell and injected a superior business (in the form of N4) that offers greater upside potential for shareholders.
Afternoon gfb. It seems to me that the downside at the current price seems minimal; the upside, tremendous.
The banana plantation near to the Magole Farm will alone will be generating revenues of $6m this year (assuming the 150 ha have been or will be planted imminently, and harvested and sold before year end); and next year, the increase in size of the plantation to 500 ha should yield circa $20m.
The combined Morogoro properties amount to a further 1,300 ha on top of the 500 ha earmarked for the banana plantation – less than 200 ha of that at the moment is being used for tomatoes / onions / chillies etc. So there’s a huge amount of revenue growth ahead in the near term. Beyond that, there is further potential land grab opportunities in the immediate surroundings – for example the nearby potential mango plantation (617 ha) referred to in 2014 was never completed on (my opinion only, having gone through the RNSs).
Obtala also has 44,000 ha of land across three huge cereal farms, that is not being made use of at present (these farms would however required substantial capex to start up – bulk cereal crops would be cultivated on these properties).
The AHS chain should also generate revenues of $12m in FY 2016, and let's assume $3m generated by the forestry assets (although these will likely be spun out before year end).
So there should be a realistic chance of Obtala generating revenues of between $15m and $20m this year.
I do get the impression that the market senses that Obtala will require a fundraise at some point this year. Perhaps that - coupled with lack of clarity on performance of individual business divisions to date - has deterred investors. However, Executive Chairman Scolaro seems loath to go down this route at all – and I am convinced he would not authorise a placing at the current suppressed valuation.
The Company has at last sorted itself out, has streamlined its operations and now is in a position to rapidly build up significant revenues. The recently uploaded video to Obtala’s website highlights the sheer size of the Tanzania farm. With the two key internationally recognised certifications in place (and thus the prospect of international sales), one would hope that 2016 is the year that management is able to report on the financial performance of the farm on a regular basis.
The interest in the Lesotho cannery is no more (it would seem that there was not enough feedstock in the immediate vicinity to allowed it to run at a profit); and the three giant cereal farms (two in Tanzania; one in Mozambique) appear to have been put into care and maintenance. In my view, the African Home Stores chain might be exited in 2016 as well, given the lack of positive reporting to date on the division.
All of these, in my opinion, should be taken as positive developments for Obtala – management is now able to focus on continuing to build Magole Farm organically, and to secure end buyers for all of its produce.
Of course, there is also the (rather substantial!) added bonus of the spinning out of the forestry division. Hopefully there will be enough demand to achieve a vendor placing at time of the IPO; however, even if there is not then there will still be the prospect of achieving an Endulwini/BMN or Titanium/PRG-esque block placing further down the line.
H1 2016 figures to be published in September this year will be the first real set of numbers for Obtala under its effectively new status of ‘operating company’, as opposed to its former tag of ‘investing company’. My belief is that they could prove a pleasant surprise for the market.
Posted in: RAME
Ludicrously cheap here still. Just can't understand lack of interest!
Interesting to see that there is absolutely no stock going on HL online. Can anyone else get a quote without ringing a broker directly? Definitely bodes well for a sharp rise soon. And yes SFU - seller does indeed seem to have gone at last!
Posted in: RAME
Initiation Note out this morning - 24p target price, and this only assumes the near term projects. Discounting heavily, the inclusion of the longer term projects lifts fair value to 30p, and that still conservatively assumes no 'new' projects being brought on board.
Perhaps the market will start to wake up to the undervaluation here, once Cantor starts pushing the note.
Posted in: RAME
Absolutely ludicrous. I would guess that people are scared about cash reserves. Worst case scenario, RAME can just dispose of an undeveloped asset (such as occurred with Punta Chome) for cash. There is so much going on here, with so many potential revenue streams. The renewables sector in Chile is booming and the law is highly favourable to companies operating in the space.
The share price has been dragged down owing to a legacy shareholder selling out and to frustrations over the incompletion of the Raki project. These were both through no fault of the Company. Once cash flows begin from the various completed IPP projects, I anticipate a major re-rate in the share price over the coming year. Bear in mind also that revenues from Engineering Services are (according to management) also increasing substantially this year (bolstered by Beco).
This looks an absolute steal at these levels. Broker target prices are ridiculous in comparison to this current share price, even when factoring in for a falling oil price and equity dilution since. November should see final approval granted for Commencement of Large Mining Operations.
The exit is surely within 12 months now – a buyout by a major or mid tier player. If it materializes, it would surely be in the multiples of pennies.
Numis – tp of 8p (unrisked at 14p) (operational costs $40/bbl)
Fox Davies – tp of 6p (unrisked of 11p)
Both have calculated cash flow breakeven costs of approximately $55/bbl all in. So it’s a reasonably cheap play, all things considered. Its capex requirements per barrel amounts to only $4-5.
Total, the French O&G supermajor, has invested $320m for a 50% stake in Redleaf, the proprietor of the technology that Tomco is leasing. If the commercial test run that is being carried out proves successful (and it has of course in smaller scale trials, and Total obviously believes it will in this final commercial test run) – then eyes will quickly turn to TOM and its absurd market valuation.
The Company just needs to get its story out there again!
I have recently built a stake for the first time here.
Any other views would be welcome!
Thomson Reuters also quotes a new shareholder on the register - Barclays Bank (Suisse) S.A. holding 10m shares (which would amount to £1.8m of the recent placing). Presumably that position will be disclosed in the near future.
I expect more frequent newsflow until year end in terms of corporate deals, quarrying production ramp up, completion of processing plant and commencement of processing, JV agreements and offtake agreements. IF sales outlets can be identified and secured this has truly excellent potential over the long term. A big IF though.
From the website it looks as though Altium, Majedie, Amati and Standard Life all upped their stakes in the recent placing. That is a great show of confidence. I imagine one or more new institutions will be announced in the coming weeks too.
Provided the Omega deal goes ahead and rights are granted over the second Malesheva site, the company will have interests in TEN sites - double the number at IPO less than two years ago. Foxcould rapidly transform into a major business, IF sales start gaining traction.
I am holding for the long term.
Added 50,000 jet before close of trading on Thursday at 16p. I was pleasantly surprised to get such a low price, considering that the placing was at 18p. Hopefully we will find out next week that the institutions stood their corners in the fundraising round. The announcement of another one coming on board would also be a good boost.
The prospects of this company over the longer term are exceptional, I feel. I expect new flow to pick up in H2, with more substantial orders coming in and perhaps openings of additional quarries.
At this share price level, FOX could be a serious divi yielder in the years to come.
Good news for PIRI with that director appointment.
Redmond and Armstrong have restructured numerous companies as a team (primarily through RTOs) before stepping down from the respective boards:
Although Remond has often mentioned his interest in pursuing a pre-IPO incubation strategy, he has also hinted at the continued possibility of a straight out RTO for PIRI. With Armstrong on board, I think that the latter is much more likely now.
There is the added protection that any fundraising could only be accomplished at present at a minimum of a 42.9% premium to the current ask price (0.07p).
Posted in: DQE
Seemingly a huge squeeze in the share price going on at the moment...
Allenby has put an initial fair value target of 50p.
Posted in: NBU
Also an investor here, Benjamin. May I ask you to send me the reply, please? schoolboyLSE at hotmail .co .uk
Posted in: RCI
He means that these 76.6p trades going through are buys.