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@magsy fair enough, although I think with the quality GDR can achieve a decent market share and remember those calcs only assume 11 countries and 100,000 tests a day. In India and US the tests required are likely to be far higher and there are lots more countries to be onboarded still imo
If we didn't have AIHL and HCV (and DoD) all coming online I think it would be more of a worry regarding a discrete block of revenue, but by the time we know more about how long Covid might last for the other tests will hopefully be in full swing and back up the mcap at that time
*... instead of complicating the calc by changing percentages AND REQUIRED TESTS/DAY and limited it to 6 months of revenue.
@saint yes agreed but it's just guesswork regarding how long this will go on for, so I reduced the % market share instead of complicating the calc by changing percentages and limited it to 6 months of revenue.
We're both getting around £100M revenue over 12 months and agree that's conservative. We're currently sat at £45M mcap... Now we've got a better picture from DB today and it's clear the product will sell (we have indicative orders) and that keen distributors/partners are lined (across 11 countries) imo it's only going one way from here over the next month or so... that's up
@saint you asked for revenue estimations based on the covid test but I'll add in AIHL and be a bit more accurate in my estimations. I don't see how you can really look too far into the future i.e. end of 2021 with this Covid test. I'll do a quick calc for 12 months from now august 2020 based on some pessimism to assume it'll burnout by Jan 2021 - so for that and using my low end previous percentages of 100,000 tests/day across 11 countries:
month 1 (jul) - £1M = 1.0
month 2 - 1% = 2.64
month 3 - 5% = 13.2
month 4 - 10% = 26.4
month 5 - 10% = 26.4
month 6 - 5% = 13.2
month 7 (jan) - 1% = 2.64
Total revenue = £84.48M over 6 months.
AIHL will also be coming online in the autumn, so assume October for full launch gives 9 months of sales and assume they hit 50% of what they expect the revenue potential to be for them for their first year.
0.75 (9 months) x £38.5M (35 global and 3.5 UK) x 0.5 = £14.4M
You then have the DoD which is probably ~£100k for the units but cartridges unknown as yet
And also HCV which DB noted as not gaining traction yet due to Covid, but once it does that will be a huge market
So probably somewhere around £100M over the next 12 months - using very conservative figures and obviously assuming all approvals etc. go through.
@tex I disagree completely. As @manifesto has said, the video was released ahead of market opening and people had plenty of time to judge if it was positive or not and whether it warranted their investment. There weren't many on here shouting BOOM after that video, many were indifferent and others disappointed given what they'd hoped for with the 'premiere'.
Definitely can't call that a P&D I'm afraid.
@saint a quick calc with very rough, and low, assumptions:
- 11 countries with distribution contracts
- Assume each country is aiming for 100,000 tests/day (low end of the UK target)
- Assume GDR captures only 1% of that market in each country
11 x (0.01 x 100,000) = 11,000 tests a day required across all countries (which GDR can manufacture in about an hour)
11,000 x 30days x £8price = £2.64M revenue a month
They could manufacture that entire quota in just over 33 hours.
Given the quality of GDR's test I'd expect them to gain a lot more traction than just 1% of the market in those countries and I'd expect those countries to be doing a lot more than just 100,000 tests a day. If you assumed higher percentages of only 100,000 then the revenue still goes up quickly:
5% = £13.2M / month
10% = £26.4M / month - (still easily within their current manufacturing capabilities - 11 hours production a day (7 day week) or 16 hours production i.e. 2x 8hr shifts a day (5 day week)
@ontarget no on YouTube you can scheduled a private video to go public, so it remains hidden until it goes live, but you have to toggle the 'premiere' button for it to be publicly visible until it launches. That's why I've said before I think whoever uploaded it toggled it by accident because the content wasn't 'premiere' worthy
DB highlighted this in the RNS:
“Obtaining country specific regulatory approvals remains the crucial next step”
I've just been through it again and picked out a few key things all hanging on the approvals before the big orders come in - whether they’re being overlooked or pushed aside because people are focussing on the initial indicative £1M orders I don’t know, but it’s all very positive, for me at least:
- In India “The Company remains very confident that RAPID commercial roll out could be achieved through both existing distribution partners and DIVOC Health”, so once approval is in it’s go go go
- In the US “The Company has been in discussion with several interested partners to access the US market”, so once FDA comes through we have avenues lined up and if they’re interested in taking on the product then they more than likely have got buyers waiting. Notice also DB said 'partners' not distributors, we'll have to wait to see exactly what that means.
- In Africa “The Company has signed a number of distributors across Africa and is in the process of registering the product locally”, so once the approvals are in we’re good to go there too
Regarding distributors “Genedrive has now signed additional distribution contracts in respect of 11 countries to work non-exclusively alongside its existing distributor network” I’d guess 1 (Divoc) in India, several (so ~3) in US and the remaining (7) probably in Africa. So already we’re covering a wide base in our key target markets and it is literally the approvals before it takes off
@jay or make it to the very last sentence...
"... our target markets combined with the unique aspects of the CoV-2 Test give us significant confidence in delivering successful commercial outcomes in the near future"
As the approvals start coming in, new orders will be placed and existing 'indicative' orders will be fulfilled. India, Africa and US are our target markets, do people really think we'll only be generating only a total of £1M... across all of those territories...? Today's RNS was just the start.
@technick given India is where we think our approvals are most progressed I’m inclined to agree. I doubt many orders are being made until they can see approvals are likely to be given.
A key sentence for me “The Company has received significant interest from customers and distribution partners for this assay and genedrive has now signed additional distribution contracts in respect of 11 countries to work non-exclusively alongside its existing distributor network.”
We’ve got preorders of £1M, which is a good start and once the new distributors sign up following approvals that will imo increase significantly. It won’t be the BOOM first number some were hoping for I’m sure but DB has made it clear that timelines/workloads of countries has slowed down progress in approvals and as I said many I expect are not considering placing orders until they can see approvals are given.
I’m certainly looking forward to the next update that’s for sure! :-)
@ethio hey buddy, much appreciated :-) I've not gone anywhere, just been in the background having taken a step back recently because this board was getting ridiculous - hopefully it's beginning to take a turn for the better though. I'm tend to just skim read every so often for now and post if I find something interesting elsewhere.
Will be good to hopefully, and finally, see our patience pay off in the coming weeks and get this board back to the good ol' days!
@kd82 just to clarify those codes, we do NOT want to progress to E, that just means 'it's nice to know you and we'll connect you with someone else'. We're at the final stage(!), see the following:
A: This idea does not contribute directly to the challenge and will not be progressed as part of the challenge or has already been considered
B: This idea is interesting but will not contribute to the immediate goal to be achieved at the end of the month and will be followed up at a later date
C: This idea has the potential to contribute to the goal but more information is needed and the moderators will contact you to find out more
D: This idea is ready to go. We will contact you regarding how we can work with you to make it happen at scale
E: This idea is interesting but outside the scope of this challenge; we will help you to make appropriate connections with another group
F: More information has been requested in the comment section of the post
https://testingmethods.crowdicity.com/hubbub/communitypage/108570
For anyone that missed it, stage D that we're at now with DHSC is...
THIS IDEA IS READY TO GO. WE WILL CONTACT YOU REGARDING HOW WE CAN WORK WITH YOU TO MAKE IT HAPPEN AT SCALE
@saint-tropez don't miss this one of mine...
DHSC updated again, now to "D: Ready to share / D3: Catalogue of Resources" and Tom's comment:
"Thanks for this David, the reviewers have looked over this earlier. They found this product promising and are keen for labs to be able to review this and consider its use. I will move the idea into our "catalogue of resources" page and we will share the link to this page via a bulletin to go out this Monday."
Very promising progress. But I still think GDR's focus is on India :-)
@saint-tropez I posted about the crowdicity link regarding the DHSC submission at 11:17am yesterday, you had all day to top up... ;-)
@mavern @technick @grim haha me too. I think GDR have their targets in mind and they are holding everything in reserve for fulfilling these orders. If they can obtain the big orders on the basis of demonstrating their capabilities of supplying in large quantities then getting lost in lots of smaller contracts just distracts and detracts from supplying the bigger players - which might otherwise cause them time/expense/complexites in scaling up when at this time they just want to land the big first contracts.
Like others I'm glad to see we're now on the WHO list, had been refreshing that every day for about 6 weeks! And DB has submitted the required data to DHSC now so we'll see what comes of that https://testingmethods.crowdicity.com/post/3237330
The original post was around @fatcobra's point 1. https://endpts.com/pharma-giants-return-to-antibiotics-huddle-to-launch-1b-venture-fund-report/
@holly the person that initially posted, Nexie(?), was a 1 post wonder who after a few exchanges then cross-ramped some other shares, so I think it's likely someone reported them and they now no longer exist with their posts vanishing along with them.
Not sure why the replies would've been taken down too though...