RE: Vaccine Program12 Apr 2022 18:57
Phil I don't know why you feel the need to use these childish bitcoin derived terms like spreading FUD to describe people who have a different view to yours.
I highlighted Kaleido because they have decided within the last 2-3 days to abandon their clinical programs and shut down the business. They have some relevance as they are a clinical stage biotech in the same microbiome sector as 4D. I think Evelo will be next to fold and Forte are already gone. So when investors look at Microbiome companies like 4D they will look at Forte, Kaleido and Evelo and be wary. The Kaleido collapse has obviously been accelerated by the biotech cash crunch.
You posted something I have posted before and claim to have upset me. I think you imagined that.
I have not made any exaggerated claims about the RCC results and a subsequent u-turn. If you can show me what I said then go ahead. I said they were decent but with limited info to go on the day they were announced.
As I explained yesterday I spent about 10 days trying to get an idea of their efficacy compared to other drugs treating renal solid tumours. This is not easy to do as I am just a layman, not a cancer treatment expert.
Getting stable disease in 4 out of 16 late stage patients seems good. But a clearer indication would have come if they had achieved 1 or 2 actual tumour reductions, which was achieved in Part A.
Part B is described as a signal finding trial and there are signs of efficacy. I had just hoped for more as it would increase the probability of future success.
Do I think 4D is at risk of going broke? I don't know how familiar you are with Kaleido but up until a month or two ago they were talking lots about their plans and they still have cash. Just not enough to continue their programmes. They have burnt about $500m of investors cash.
4D say they need $45m to fund the next 18 months. As I said this could come from a windfall like outlicensing Blautix or a vax milestone payment.
But that could just be wishful thinking. So they probably need to raise from investors. Incidentally, the new corp presentation looks like it is geared to this with lots of talk of 2023/24 milestones and data releases.
SP at the moment is frozen by the algos and shorters and I can't see any high probability milestones near term.
So any raise will be dilutive. I think the initial market reaction will be negative. If we get money in I will buy back much of what I sold with a degree of confidence as the company would be in a much better position.
Just because we have partnerships with Merck and Pfizer doesn't mean they want to fund or support 4D. They are psychopathic corporations who would dearly love to buy 4D from administrators for a £1. One thing I winced at last year was when DP referred to their friends at Merck.
This is cold, hard brutal business despite the objectives to help relieve the suffering of very sick people.
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