Member Info for Sangijuelas1

Where's Taunton Dave gone?

What other biotechs have you made money in then Soundsrisky?

For all I know you could be in a bedsit in Rotherham.

FYI I am a very leggy well endowed blonde

Scientists at companies all over biotech are working in companies that are at risk. Many smaller biotechs are going to run out of money.

This general point is not scaremongering. It's reality as there is a cash crunch in biotech.

I wouldn't be surprised if 4D pull something out of the bag and I hope they do. They really seem to have a valuable drug discovery platform technology.

If they were a German company they could probably get significant funding from their government as BioNTech got whilst working on their MRNA vaccines. But there's a fat chance of that happening here and they just have to depend on measly tax credits for R&D.

If you invest it has to meet your risk reward appetite. 4D doesn't meet mine given the uncertainty and I was disappointed by the lack of clarity around the Oxford funding.

I am also going by my own reading of Duncan in recent interviews. He seems really beaten down

What I am saying is if you want to make money or avoid losing too much you really need to interrogate your investments especially if they are in an area like biotech where it's easy to kid people with limited scientific knowledge.

Or you can just listen to Porkys hopium. When he turned up on this board he was literally pursued by about 10 Valirx investors who were denouncing him as someone who really shouldn't be lisyened to.

I mean why would people bother to do that?

They had to appoint a CFO as it's a requirement of being on Nasdaq. The previous one sadly passed away.

We don't really know what remit the Regulatory guy has. Whether it's just part time consultancy type role. If they were planning to sell up imminently to Merck who would deal with all reg affairs why take him on?

They were given the pay raises back in July last year at the time of the Oxford loan and when they were anticipating raising $45m by April.

Why do you think the Bavencio trial still hasn't started? It was supposed to have started in Q4 last year.

Yeah Porky he is the CEO. He's not going to talk down the company, is he?

Why has the Bavencio trial still not started dosing? My guess is they have no money to fund it.

I sometimes think you are talking up this stock so much to maybe pump the price a bit so you can dump it on some other unsuspecting soul who believes your guff.

You and others have been desperately trying to spread rumours about an imminent TO.

And I refer you to the late Lady Thatchers words with regard to your dirty mouth.

Rather than listening to Duncan spaff off the same stuff he has been repeating for 2 years why not have a go at answering these 2 questions?

1) Why did the company say Oxford had provided $12.5m, when in fact it was only $5m for business use? (The other $7.5m having to be locked away in a US bank account if no raise by April 1st).

2) Did the $7.5m have to be deducted from the end of year cash balance? I honestly don't know and if it did they won't have cash to get to October.

"I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left" .

Margaret Thatcher

crl123
Unlike you I am not fanatical about shares that I invest in. I am not into faith based investing as I tend to try to make decisions based on the balance of probabilities.

If something changes then I am inclined to change my views.

Long before you appeared here I was invested. I don't know if you were here in May - June last year when many were waiting for the 0518 data that was eventually released in March this year.

2 things changed for me.

The 0518 Part B results were not as good as I had hoped for based on the Part A ones.

The funding scenario changed given the information provided in the annual report. That is $5m instead of $12.5m from Oxford and the missed raise.

I think the company has fallen victim to circumstances beyond its control. I think they listed on Nasdaq way too early driven by Oliveira and Chardan.

There are still plenty of positives for 4D but for me the funding is the elephant in the room.

Jack those brokers issued those valuations in the midst of a bull market for biotech.

Since then most biotechs have seen their values plummet and the only ones that haven't have plenty of cash to see them through or are due to release P3 trial results.

The last time I looked Merck was a pharma company.

Not a charity for bailing out underwater investors.

Facts matter
According to the annual report Oxford Finance agreed to lend $12.5m in July last year.

Yet of this $12.5m only $5m could be accessed. The other $7.5m had to be held in cash unless 4D raised $45m before April 1st.

Newsflash - there was no raise so 4D had to send $7.5m to a US custodian for Oxford.

Why was there no raise?
Did the $7.5m have to be deducted from the end of year cash balance?

Someone mentioned Sirius Minerals yesterday.
Anglo American ended up picking up the remains for pennies.

4D need cash. I hope they get some.

I personally am not prepared to risk 100k to get 300k.

Waiting nervously for the US inflation figures. If they are bad will be some buying opps in the next few days.

Worth noting that the 3 big IPOs in a year was a little out of the ordinary and a response to overly exuberant markets hungry for new tech IPOs.

I think 1 a year or even every 18 months is what you would expect in addition to the odd private buyout of portfolio companies.

I invest here to have exposure to the likes of Graphcore and Thought Machine. It is a well known truth that by the time many tech stocks get to market the bulk of the value created has often already been accrued by VC investors. Of course some will go on to much greater things but it is getting harder to find value on public markets.

It does seem extremely intellectually lazy to just look at MV and go oh that's a tech fund so it must be massively overvalued and should get battered as it will be tough for them to get IPOs away in these conditions. But the comparative time frame is the exuberant one and not the more normal environment pre pandemic. (Yeah tech was priced high then but it's here to stay - its success can be seen by the talk of having to break companies up for becoming monopolistic or preventing deals like the Nvidia- Arm situation).

Would buy more as sitting on some profit from elsewhere but holding off as any further deterioration in US inflation later I think will tip markets over the edge.

Would a bid not need to be at the highest price from the last 12 months?

I really wouldn't want to see this taken private.

Sunny it is stated on the Oct 2019 RNS

Main milestone triggers are Merck taking an option to develop the vaccine adjuvant candidate with their vaccine. This means taking it through clinical trials.

Further milestone are related to securing regulatory approval and commercialization.

There's more info in the SEC filings. Milestone payments are understood to be high single digit or double digit depending on the stage.

That's why they are called milestone payments because stages have to be met. There is not just 1 milestone payment of $350m.

I think it's all coordinated and I think some post with more than 1 LSE account

Because you prefer fantasy rather than reality

Sunnyca
The total available milestone payments on each indication are high.

But to get those amounts Merck would have to get final approval of a vaccine.

None of them are in clinical trials yet so you aren't suddenly going to get an RNS saying 4D have received a payment of several hundred million dollars.

I really shouldn't have to say this

Maybe Putin and co are selling out of Western stocks.

Would explain the daily drops. Rather than 6-10% crashes.

Markets are extremely risk averse at the moment.

Pricing has broken down across the board. I was holding Ideagen. Last week they announced they had 2 competing cash bids on the table. SP barely moved on the news despite trading substantially below what would have been minimum TO price.

Today announced one of the bids accepted and up 45%.

Buffet is buying more Activision Blizzard stock trading at $77 despite Microsoft $95 bid. Partly down because of antitrust fears about the deal getting blocked but even so.

Yeah but the rate rises and price drops would lead others to lose their homes especially if other costs keep rising.

Higher rates will also likely lead to more people failing the mortgage affordability tests.

Who knows what the answer is to an economy built on debt supplementing the low wages of many?

Scrambler, you supported the idea that listing on Nasdaq would rapidly rocket the stock to £5

I said it wouldn't. Enjoy your fantasies. I prefer living in reality.