Member Info for Sangijuelas1

Here are my positives to try and be balanced

Great platform that has uncovered about 7 live biotherapeutics ready for trials since 2014

Merck may buy them or even a private buyout from others with deeper pockets

German Merck could even put in an offer or a UK pharma like AZN.

I don't think buyout would be more than say 150p at this stage.

Merck and others could fund via a Pipe. Dilution would be significant but I wouldn't be overly concerned.

Maybe they could extract commercial value from Blautix or get a milestone payment if Merck take up options in the vax adjuvant program.

They got a CFO on a high salary who is going to have to earn it. He has had experience in a previous company sale.

I also think a number of 4Ds existing drugs including Blautix and the asthma and Parkinsons drugs could be used to treat Long Covid

Well they could have used it if they had done a raise before 1st April, which no doubt they intended to.

But the Oxford Finance deal would also have shown the market that they had other potential funding sources when they went to raise.

Since they did the loan agreement they were well and truly shafted by the biggest shareholder selling and the onset of the biotech bear market from August onwards that presumably prevented the fund raise.

Tauntons account has been deleted.

https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/tauntonboy/

Maybe because I asked them to cross reference it with Porkys

RP Cazoo had about $900m back in February and their market cap is $987m.

I think they are being punished for listing too early but they are growing sales very fast although reinvesting heavily to expand out to Europe and also their own reconditioning facilities and direct buys from consumers rather than wholesalers. They have got great reviews on Trust Pilot and new reviews are coming thick and fast with over 500 a week. Nearly 5 stars for a used car dealer. I haven't gone in deep there.

And of course I am not in any way suggesting 4D are up to no good. Absolutely not.

They are just facing tough market conditions. It's not something unique to them. It's just large numbers of biotechs will be having issues.

Kaleido went down 3 months after starting a deal with Janssen.
Evelo have enough for 2-3 months, Finch have just downsized by 20%.

I just think they anticipated the raise to be before April as per the loan deal but couldn't get it away at the right price.

I even get that they might have been a bit unclear about the Oxford loan in order to get a raise on more favourable terms.

Maybe like you say they have something up their sleeve. I hope they do and you guys win out.

I am highly transparent Soundsrisky.

I have doubts about the cash going forward but I think the platform is very strong.

That's why I stepped back. Too much tied down here especially since the price gets manipulated so much so the stock gets trapped at an artificially low level thereby making a fundraise difficult.

If they secure funding I get back in.

Anyone with half a brain cell invested in biotech knows the companies need money to fund trials and the market conditions are making that more difficult than it would normally be.

I bought in during a biotech bull market and sold in a bear market. Not too proud to admit to a mistake.

I had to do the same with Tiziana and thank God I did with that one.
4D is not like Tils but is a victim of circumstances.

Take back what I said about Evelo.

They actually issued a correction to their earlier results release, which said the wrong cash amounts.

They have about $40m cash at end of March but worth keeping an eye on as they burn $10m a month.

If they announce a raise would mean 4D might be able to as well.

Seriously though how do they manage to burn $10m a month?

I think 4D burn about $1.5m, maybe a little more each month

I only buy companies that I am happy to hold if it swings the wrong way given the volatility.

For example Affirm. I bought a lot of them yesterday as they were 50% down over a week or so going in to earnings prepared to sit and hold even if they dropped another 50% on bad earnings.

But they went up quite a bit same with Upstart so cashed in.

I have money to recover that I lost here so glad to be free again.

It's at times like this when you need to be on your toes.

Thanks Phil there have been some nice swings on Nasdaq this week so I might be able to afford some fish and chips for tea.

And if you want to have a flutter Cazoo is trading at a 10th of its listing price and market cap about the same as the cash they hold.

We could talk about Evelo Biosciences. At the end of March they were down to their last $10m and they burn that much in a month.

So looks like they will be the next domino to fall after Kaleido Biosciences exit.

Survival of the fittest this

What would you like to talk about?

There will always be takers for the portfolio companies among private equity.

Take Ideagen. They had dropped down to 215p a month or so back. Could have dropped further if it had not been for TO talk that lifted it to 250p then a cash offer came in from private equity for 350p. There is also another PE company doing DD so there could even be a counter offer.

So market value 215p. Value to seasoned business managers at least 350p.

The mistake we are all making is marking to market. Switch off the SP and just write 1100p on an Excel sheet of your investments.

Similar story with biotech. Publicly listed companies are really struggling to raise cash whereas the private biotechs seem to be having a better time of it.

Given that we are dealing with private markets maybe less concern about SP would be an idea?

The portfolio is not like say Edinburgh Worldwide where you have a fairly solid link between the fund and the prices of publicly traded stocks.

We have a much steeper discount to theirs right now but who is too say that the values of our portfolio stocks are worth less than the ones that are publicly traded in the EW portfolio.

Theirs get judged by the prevailing sentiment of markets and having to deliver satisfactory short term results every quarter.

For all we know privately held companies may be better able to get on with the job in hand of building a strong business more efficiently when they don't have to deal with idiot analysts on quarterly calls and the frenzied trading by short sellers and pump and dump merchants.

Seriously, I read the transcript of the Upstart call the other day and the same question was asked 5 times in 5 different ways.

There's a reason why the likes of Elon Musk want to take things private.

So when it comes to funding rounds seems like still appetite for tech.

Aiven raised in March at a valuation of $800m, in October at $2bn and now at $3bn.

Article below on state of play with VC funding and valuations.
https://news.crunchbase.com/news/global-vc-funding-decline-monthly-recap-april-2022/

We seem to get the drops here but not the pullbacks.

Ocado went as low as 695p down by over 10% around lunchtime with the Nasdaq down. It has since bounced back to the 770s.

The TR1s show that we have had Schroders and Black Rock selling so that may be ongoing.

Hi Porky/Soundsrisky /Taunton Boy

I don't post for you. I realise you are in too deep.

It's for the newbies so they can understand it's not all sunshine and lollipops.

That they may be buying stock in a company with no near term funding roadmap visible to investors.

This is now a highly speculative stock. A red or black play.

I prefer to invest and this has become a gamble.

Hence not buying at this seemingly low price.

I stopped trusting them when they said they secured a loan for $12.5m that only turned out to be $5m available to spend.

4D say they need $45m once the current cash dries up.

Their USD market cap is about $72m.

Good luck with that one.

Hopefully Merck will buy but I think they will have their attention focused elsewhere with the bargains on offer at the moment.

As for them providing funding I think that is unlikely because they are not a charity. And I don't think 4D have done enough to warrant that.

Just my opinion, not advice

Which was probably to cover

Phil if the company runs out of cash and they can't raise any how exactly are they going to prevent the company from going under?

What am I not getting Sharcus?

Enlighten me. Did they get all of the initial $12.5m to invest or did they have to deduct $7.5m and send it to a US custodian bank as per the terms of the restrictive loan covenant.?

And Phil the company are not going to answer me if I ask them how much cash they have right now as it would obviously be inside info.

I don't think they do have it.