Member Info for Sangijuelas1

Not sure what you are talking about Sound Man. I have been explaining to the rampers on Tils that the stock is garbage because they have no intention of ever running a drug trial.

I have done little but post valuable info on 4D which unfortunately goes over the heads of most of the tourists on there

Sorry people hurting. I offer a dose of realism.

I am down across my portfolio but I trust the companies will bounce back.

I just don't trust Avacta and I could never listen to another second of AS droning on

The tourists are going home having been badly fleeced by the locals

When the Mcap is below £100m maybe then we can talk

That this company with no prospects as no trials is valued at twice that of 4D, a company running multiple trials with readouts due and partnerships with Merck and Pfizer

I mean it's mind blowing

you really want a laugh consider that Tiziana, a company with neither of its 2 drugs in any trials, is valued at twice the price of 4D on Nasdaq.

I also think 4D has options for financing if things get desperate.

Blautix is a drug with strong proof of concept. I honestly don't think 4D have the funds to pay for a P3 trial given the core focus is 0518.

It will be attractive to other companies as the strong data means it is much less risky than other drug candidates that have not made it so far.

So while they wouldn't want to sell it to get cash, it is there if needed and they could probably throw Thetanix in as well and get at least a years funding.

What I mean in saying that is that the company does have assets of value as a backstop. This is why I feel more comfortable investing here than elsewhere.

The FT article highlights how ignorant mainstream funds are of developments in biotech.

Specialist funds can still see great value in biotech but that's because they have scientific advisors guiding their investments.

Both Chardan and Ladenberg Thalmann, the analysts that have given the $35-45 ratings have analysts with science PhDs

It will be a lot easier for 4D to demonstrate the mode of action and preparation processes etc with one strain than with the consortia approach.

I think there's probably room for both approaches as consortia might be good for some illness and single strain biologic for others

It already looks like they are going to combine 2 single strains in the Parkinsons trial

Right but you are comparing the amount with warrants included to the amount with warrants as if to imply they have increased their holding which they haven't, although they did take more at the last placement at 110p

Seres is still valued at $730m. They are going for approval and Licensing in next few months so valuation will reflect that.

But if they get approved I think they will be back over $2bn

In FT this morning on biotech woes.

May be able to beat paywall if you Google "Biotechs face cash crunch after stock market bloodbath"

Gives some perspective on broader context and 4D is reasonably well placed compared to others in the market.

Phil I have never not been enthusiastic. However I misunderstood what to expect from the PC trial as they were only going to report initial data (which was not going to be earth shattering relative to what there already is) so I was disappointed that it was not forthcoming.
I was also sceptical about blaming the FDA for the Blautix Strategy delay but I do now accept the FDA are in a mess and that they do need feedback on endpoints rather than just pressing ahead

Thanks Ray, I skim read one the "Cancer vaccines, Adjuvants and Delivery Systems ' and I see that does relate to Modi1

4D will have top line data in a number of patients. I believe they will present initially on 10 patients in each cohort.

They said they were going to present late summer, early autumn.

At the beginning of September Forte crashed and Oliveira started selling.
I believe he would have communicated this to them out of courtesy,even though they denied knowing anything about it.

Then the message became top line data will be provided when they get biomarker data.

So I think they have held back releasing data as is their right as it's interim data, not full readout.

As it would only have been sold in to by Oliveira and that would have messed with the chance of buyout at reasonable multiple for Merck or a capital raise at a less dilutive price.

The latter would likely depend on whether better to raise at a high price or just draw down the $18m from Oxford.

Merck would struggle to justify paying that at the moment given the current market cap.

So probably just need a run up to 130 or so on 0518 results and then they could justify 5x that

Most biotechs have 1-2 candidates for late stage development.

4D have
Oncology 0518 + 2nd generation LBPs already identified as potential CAR-T cell therapy combo treatments.
Probable cancer vaccine adjuvants
IBS P3 ready asset + Thetanix for IBD
Parkinsons drug primed for human trials
Asthma drug
Micro RX platform and patents

It's difficult but I would say anything below £1bn would be a rip off of investors

There is no point buying this hoping for it to trade up.

You just want to stay and wait for the buyout.

We all waiting for 0518 data but Merck can already see the data as one of their scientists is on the study team.

Merck may have already made an offer but had it turned down as derisory. Why would DP and AS sell for the same price they bought in at?

IIs are not able to consider micro caps like 4D. They are seen as too risky. You must have noticed all the furore around the Woodford fund. The Mifid rules have made it even harder for small caps to get attention as brokers can no longer charge funds for research.

And the funds generally don't have small biotech researchers. An exception is Baillie Gifford who bought in with Woodford and are the only institutional investor over 3%.

Scancell use various vaccine adjuvants including TLR9 agonists which 4D are looking to confirm for sure is what 0518 is in addition to being a TLR5 agonist.

Unfortunately Merck have exclusivity on 4D vax adjuvants otherwise could maybe work with Scancell