Member Info for Sangijuelas1

Any idea how much clinical trials cost?

I think it is pretty obvious why someone would buy at 40p rather than 60p.

At the current price I think it will drop heavily over the next few months.

At under 40p the risk would be slightly reduced and perhaps fair value for the Affimer platform.

I would rather own the companies whose arbitrary valuations are very low than the ones who have been arbitrarily valued quite high.

Especially if the cheaper company is much closer to approval or buyout because it hasn't spent time and resources on a failed project.

Avacta will also need to raise capital as they will have been spending a lot on the AVA6000 trial

No Wyndrum I am saying the price here was inflated by the LFT and it still hasn't fallen back into line with other small biotechs with experimental technologies.

What was it worth before Covid hit?

People are in here as well as ODX as they bought into both on the Covid promise.

Now they see even more capital wiped out on ODX they will be selling down here to try and preserve some.

I think you are confusing me with Wyndrum. I haven't been positive here since Conifer started selling

And Wyndrum I said it is overvalued relative to other biotechs with similar unproven technologies like Scancell, C4XD or 4D

As they realise how long it will take to make progress they will slowly drop out and I am not prepared to risk capital on the fickleness of stressed UK small time investors

Incidentally do Conifer still own 3% as they are still showing on the website list of significant shareholders?

Yep he had 10% of the company that was over 20m shares to sell

Trials which were supposed to be paid for by income from the LFT

No Wyndrum the valuation is distorted because a bunch of tourists bought in for the LFT and are now slowly realising they are stuck in a biotech that has to go through the long process of running expensive clinical trials

4D has a distressed seller who has been dumping since September as he lost $50m on Forte Biosciences

I am using 4D and other biotechs that are further down the line are valued at much less than Avacta and if you want to buy Avacta you have to pay the failed LFT premium

C4XD is a good comparator here. Small molecule drugs at early stage of development with partnerships with larger companies.

You can buy it for £80m

Not necessarily as the 4D tech would enable ICIs to be used in more patients and for longer periods of time.

I do like Affimers and I do think the preclinical stuff has a lot of potential.

But right now this is overpriced relative to the broader market and the time it will take to get anywhere near approval even with the likely faster approval times for the precision drugs

The wild card would be the potential buyout for the Affimer tech but there's too much uncertainty for me there

PAH I would consider buying in if it dropped below £100m Mcap

I don't actually think I could talk it down to that level though

And Square 10 4D are going for the $56bn ICI market not the $2bn off patent chemo market

So that's why 4D also have a monotherapy trial for 0518.

I think the precision pro drugs would also be used in combo therapies

I could also highlight Scancell who are valued at £140m and I am not in there yet

Very similar to 4D but with a premium because they are testing Covid vaccines

No Pedro I am pointing out that the Mcap of 4D is £60m with a highly developed pipeline.

Avacta is £160m and is still testing for safe dosing levels

But smart enough not to buy here until under £100m Mcap