Our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with QuotedData's Edward Marten has just been released. Listen here.
Thank you for commenting Glandore. It's always good to hear differing opinions.
My problem is – as you may have noticed - I'm an eternal optimist. This particular outlook on life has, so far, served okay. Obviously, as with most folk, there have been some holes in the road.
As for the slow progress of Seeing Machines, I can only reflect on my own experience when starting a business. We had a plan – it was simple. However I soon lost count of how many times we had to change/adapt strategy due to the 'unforseens' that popped up along the way. So what began as something simple and straight forward ended up being much less so. At some points in our evolution it was a case of adapt or die. And that was because we had stepped into an industry we – at that time - didn't yet fully understand. We were young (back then), green, and naïve. But we believed – and that was what mattered.
Compared to our tiny business, Seeing Machines is on a different planet. I can only guess at the complexities involved when attempting to integrating into multiple global industries. There will be so many moving parts – the simple job of keeping tabs will be a full time occupation for a whole team. In part, that is how I believe McGlone's now infamous 'imminent' comment (and the Italian Job faff) blew up in his face. Shifting goal-posts (my words, not his) was something I believe he touched on in the 2023 Results Presentation. So logic may perhaps point to the constantly changing requirements from customers being what caught him out. But one thing everyone can be certain of is: this business is hugely complex. That's why I'm still willing to cut current management some slack
So, yes, I understand the frustrations with the timeline here. But, again, developing a new technology and introducing it into multiple markets where every customer wants – then wants some more, must be a complete hair-tearing nightmare. And I do hear you, but that eternal optimist I mentioned earlier is still prepared to watch and wait. Whether I'm right or wrong – only time...
Good luck to you and everyone aboard.
Folks, I know this road has turned out to be much longer than any of us expected (I was sure, courtesy of Seeing Machines, I'd be fabulously wealthy by now), but it's this 'Time Thing' that's got us pinned down. So while we're shuffling sideways – justifiably moaning - why not take a look at the positives?
Where else have you ever seen so many pages of RNS listings with so many management buys? And where else have you ever seen so many pages of management buys provoking zero reaction? This is the sort of AIM craziness that signals – loud and clear - you're onto something good. We've even had a deramper pop up and tell us All-Those-Management-Buys are a BAD thing! (as far as I'm concerned a statement like this is not only hilarious - it's also a good sign).
So our share price is marking time. Why? Well, in my humble...
Where we are right now is the middle of a cyclical market that has dragged itself all the way to a place called Apathy. Where once there was excitement on AIM every day – it's now dull and boring. The appetite for this type of investing has – gone somewhere else. But like all things cyclical, it will come back, eventually. Until then, all you need do is be more bloody-minded than the next guy.
Now I understand, as a species, our emotions sometimes get the better of us, and thinking the worst is an easy pit to fall into. But step back and have a look at where we are. It's all good. How many companies have you ever come across with more potential than Seeing Machines? Market size – tick. Partnering companies – tick. Management buys – tick. Impending profitability – tick. Legislation – tick. Best tech available – tick (thank you Mr Barnden). Cash in bank – tick. Terry – tick! And remember, we're now on the home straight.
When I first bought into SM I considered it nothing more than a punt. So I had a punt. Then, as the story unfolded (not always for the best) I began to take SM more seriously. Could I see potential? Big time! But like all (most) AIM companies, the punters pile in far too early (familiar?), so I would dip in and out - play this one smart. Turns out – I wasn't so smart after all. I piled in far too early. And that's because we punters are never privy to the whole story. And that's The Nature of The Beast. This is AIM, where even management of companies (that are by definition still evolving) don't yet know the whole story. But following this story so closely for so long gives us insight. And with that comes a deeper understanding. Seeing Machines is in a better place now than it's ever been. How do I know this...?
Well, yesterday a guy called McGlone sent me a special message (perhaps you got one, too?) It said we're on track. We're travelling slowly, but we're getting there. Once we get past this place called Apathy, things will improve. How does McGlone know this? Hey! This guy has Insider Information.
Psst, but keep that to yourself.
Two mentions in The Times in as many months – things are looking up... possibly.
Does anyone out there remember a time when an unknown AIM company announcing that it was actually working with majors like Ford, BMW plus General Motors, AND had also just launched into a 'ground breaking US$82m interior cabin monitoring programme for a large German auto manufacturer' (called Volkswagen), would have shot that company's share price into low Earth orbit?
Maybe I'm just imagining stuff like that used to happen....
P.S. Jeez, imagine the share price if the world's leading avionics supplier wanted an exclusive deal to fit our kit into aeroplanes. Oh boy, roll on that day!
CFP
I'm fairly sure most individuals here will have some experience of how fickle 'investing' on AIM can be. In highlighting your flirtation with COPL you simply amplify what's stated in my earlier post: '...everyone here should understand there are no guarantees in this place'. I'm also guessing there's a fair chance many on this board may have had an experience similar to your own.
Your brush with COPL also prompts the question of how many novice investors have dived into a 'sure-fire-winner' only to ultimately regret it? It's also a timely reminder that not only can the action on AIM sometimes be random/erratic, but it has proven time and again that sentiment – for good or bad - can also turn on a pin-head.
That said, I agree, there is a chance that Seeing Machines could be the biggest financial mistake we investors have ever made. But, using the same logic (considering the fallibility implicit in your own COPL reference, and that accurately foretelling the future is still considered a rare talent – where I live), in time, not being invested here might also prove to be the biggest mistake you've ever made.
Bulletin boards are great places - where random punters can create noise. But that noise should always be filtered through the lens of research, common sense, and an understanding that not everything written on these boards will be in the interest of genuine investors.
However, thank you for your contribution. Reasoned and well considered argument is always welcome.
Phil,
Your earlier reference to being an amateur Student of Human Behaviour chimes with my efforts as an amateur student of The Human Condition.
There are many perspectives on this subject, one of which is where we, as a species (and, in this instance, investors), can simultaneously hold the contradictory views of hope and fear on the same subject.
When first investing, we know how our journey begins but not yet how it ends; so as we travel we carry both a hope and a doubt. We'll cheer every success but worry (some even despair) at anything less.
Seeing machines? So many positives! Yet still, for some, an understandable doubt has taken root. This doubt, aided and abetted by the company's house mouse approach to PR, labyrinthian commercial restrictions, and the CEO's obvious own goals, has led to some investors (fearing the worst but still hoping for the best) assuming impending doom.
However it might be timely to remind investors of the size of our market, and that all official communications from the company are, and remain, positive. So the temptation to wander off an investing cliff-edge, driven purely by bulletin-board sentiment, might be premature.
Doubt and the stock market are familiar but uneasy bed-fellows, and everyone here should understand there are never any guarantees in this place. But gains (sometimes fortunes) are only made – or lost – by the actions of people who Do; not by the inaction of people who Don't. So, as cheesy as this sounds: don't be afraid of trying; but do be afraid of never having tried. Plan for the best; don't live in fear of the worst. Because the worst is the day you realise what could have been - if only...
Was robbed of CAPITOL letters by the LSE website
Quite a few years ago, at an altitude of 11,000 ft, I jumped out of a small aeroplane. The good news (or bad news, if you're an ex wife) I was wearing a parachute. But the oddest thing was, just before I launched myself from the aircraft, why – at that particular moment – was I wondering how many miles it got to the gallon.
I blame that randomness of thought on stress. Obviously, first time sky-diving is stressful. But something else that can be even more stressful is dealing in the stock market. This is also something that requires commitment, and, just like sky-diving – you're either in or you're out. But if something goes wrong while dangling from a parachute, the worst that can happen is death. Whereas if something goes wrong while share dealing, the worst that can happen can be even more serious. And it's these two factors: stress and money, that bring me neatly to my current wife's least favourite subject, which is, of course - Seeing Machines.
You see, as each and every year we've been invested in this company ticked by, she'd regularly remind me that I'd been regularly reminding her of how Seeing Machines was 'any minute now', 'another couple of weeks', 'just about', to turn us into millionaires. There was also, she insisted, my Daily Early Morning Seeing Machines Report of Impending Riches that I'd issue without fail at dawn every day (weekends included). This, she insisted, was one of my more annoying habits that had persisted for what felt like the last seventy-five years (I believe this to be an exaggeration, but to save any argument...). She also mentioned that my additional lunchtime Impending Seeing Machines Wealth Update sounded very much like my Daily Early Morning Seeing Machines Report of Impending Riches, and it might be an idea to combine the two and get it all over with as early in the day as possible. Of course, I responded by forcefully pointing out this was the level of thanks one received for providing cost free bi-daily analysis of future unimaginable wealth.
A few weeks later, I received a Price Monitoring Extension RNS, Thrilled as I was, I still decided to spice it up a bit before reading her the formal statement. So I bounced into the kitchen dressed as the local town crier – clangy bell and all – thus adding a bit more razzmatazz to the, admittedly, otherwise rather dry news.
Continued below...
i suppose it could have gone better, but she did eventually raise her face from her tear stained handkerchief. what did surprise was the look on her face. her usual distant smile had morphed into a sort of contorted, manic sneer. so this combined with the recent discovery that she'd also destroyed the beautiful framed portrait of mr paul mcglone (a thoughtful birthday gift from me) i'd recently hung on her kitchen wall – well, i began to suspect the lady-of-the-house might be starting to lose faith.
fast forward a few months and, after a mysterious absence of several weeks, i rediscovered her in the kitchen one morning as she unwrapped a package of finely honed japanese kitchen knives. i observed in silence as she carefully placed her collection, one by one, onto the surface of the table. she then raised her face towards the ceiling, smiled (almost normally) at the light bulb, then, stabbing a finger at each blade in turn, began reciting - in a rather alarming high-pitched screech – the phrase, “eenie-meenie-miney-moe!”
i pulled up a chair (some several place mats distant) and began interrogating her as to why the need for even more razor sharp implements. but then.. her reddening eyes popped wide as she lunged towards the largest blade and, gripping it in two white knuckled fists, she began hacking frantically at the table.
of course, seeing her in this state caused me some considerable distress. that table was expensive! and although having a well aged patina did add character, the words *******s you twat carved into its finely crafted oak surface now surely only detracted from the overall feel of the piece.
anyway, now that she's been taken away again, i hardly ever mention seeing machines. when i do – i only whisper it to fovio, my new labrador companion. he never gets stressed when i tell him about the company, and he always wags his tail when i read him my daily early morning seeing machines report of impending riches. but he does get especially excited when i whisper into his ear, “this time next year, fovio... this time next year - we'll all be...”
a merry christmas and a happy, wealthy and (even more importantly) a healthy new year to all (yes, even you toe-rags out there)
In late 1999/early 2000, I began 'investing' in what was (still unrealised by this over enthusiastic, rank amateur, didn't have a clue, investor) the tail end of the 2000 Dotcom Bubble (anyone else get scorched back there?). Well, around that same time I spotted a news item about a company called Cambridge Antibody Technology (CAT). The company was in the news because an animal rights group had moved from making threats towards the workforce to actual acts of violence. Next up, CAT's bank, now also being intimidated by the same group, pulled their support from the company and the share price collapsed. Shortly after this, Tony Blair, the Prime Minister of the day, appeared on a news item saying that no extremist group – or words to that effect – was going to shut down an incredibly promising hi-tech British company.
Anyway (remember, I was still brand new and a bit nervy playing this game), that Friday the share price had dropped to the lowest of lows. I sat and reflected on the situation. Then, at twenty-five minutes past four, I bought £2000 worth of CAT shares – back then, a hefty wedge for this still very green player. Next morning (Saturday) an item on the BBC's 10am news announced that the UK government was now CAT's banker (or as good as).
I raised my eyes slowly towards the ceiling and whispered: “Yesssss!” (then startled the family with a spontaneous jig around the kitchen table).
Well, shortly after the market opened on Monday I made £3000 plus my own £2000 back (I actually sold at the top – which, by-the-way, has never happened since). Not only that, once I'd calmed down, I made another £300(ish) on another CAT trade about half an hour later. Of course, by making money this easily, I now believed I was Jack-the-Lad (Note: in the days and weeks that followed - I was humbled to tears).
So what's a story about my CAT got to do with Seeing Machines? Well, it's a story about the use of available information; factual information. Facts are solid nuggets of gold, and sometimes its easy to forget just how valuable the facts we possess are. The more we collect the richer, in information terms, we become. Those facts allow us to make decisions. These decisions can vary from: is it safe to cross the road? to: is it safe to risk hard cash? (Some decisions in life may even define who we are – but that's a much bigger subject). So when it comes to Seeing Machines, we have information, facts and nuggets of gold aplenty. But before we go there...
The CAT story also lets tells us something about Mr Market. That Friday, when CAT's share price was on the ropes, every man and his dog had access to exactly the same information. The company didn't have a banker, but the Prime Minister – the PRIME MINISTER, for goodness sake - had already been on the airwaves telling everyone the company would not be allowed to die. So what I heard was the government charging to the rescue. The response was to place a bet on the nag at the back of the field. Whatever Mr Market heard, I don't know, but his response to the same information was exactly zero.
Ever heard the saying: The writing's on the wall? Well nobody ever said how big the writing had to be. Maybe that was the problem. By-the-way, this is not me telling you how smart I was. I was still too innocent back then to realise how corrupt this environment can be. So I just went with what I saw as obvious - a green light.
Anyway, bearing the above in mind, now look at the volumes of information available on Seeing Machines. What do you see? There's golden nuggets scattered all over the place. So if we strip out the negative sentiment (generated by ourselves and the persistent information time lag from which our company suffers), everything – but everything - is positive. Go find a statement that's negative. But do please ignore the verbal contortionists who front-up here spouting that multiple management share buys are - somehow – a BAD sign. Using that logic, we can assume any subsequent management sells will be a good sign.
So, given all that our company has going for it, why is Seeing Machines' share price so miserable? Something somewhere is wrong, and that something can only be one of two things: Me or Mr Market.
This, of course, takes me back once again to my kitchen table and CAT. All the decision making information anyone ever needed was there. Likewise, all the information we need on Seeing Machines is right here. It's freely available; it isn't top secret; it isn't hidden away or even difficult to find; and it isn't only available to a select few.
At some point Seeing Machines will experience the equivalent of CAT's blockbuster Saturday morning news. Sentiment will change. I'm not saying it will be as fast or as dramatic, but it will change. It will signal Mr Market acknowledging the size of our market; our position in that market; the quality of our partners; and that we minions were right - just a bit early - all along. Until then, I'm looking forward – VERY PATIENTLY - to the morning when that block busting news hits my kitchen table. Then, after regaining my composure, I'll rock back in my chair, raise my eyes slowly towards the ceiling, and whisper, “How'd my porridge get up there?”
Contrary to Mr/Mrs/Ms Shortwhacker's warning that a government shutdown in the US could provoke “the most almighty [financial] crash ever seen,” government shutdowns in the US are not uncommon. In fact, to quote two Wells Fargo Securities analysts, Michael Pigliese and Sarah House: “The direct effects of both the 2013 and 2018-19 shutdowns on economic growth were relatively small and short-lived,”
I'm sure we all greatly appreciate Mr/Mrs/Ms Shortwhacker's constant Sword of Damocles style warnings of Seeing Machines impending doom, but (and this is only a wild guess on my part) the strategic production plans of each and every global motor manufacturer probably extend beyond this weekend.
Note: The 2018-19 shutdown was the longest US Federal government shutdown on record, lasting 35 days. But perhaps Mr/Mrs/Ms Shortwhacker is correct and this particular one will cause the largest economic calamity ever witnessed in US history. Then again...
Should the Moon's cheese mining strike continue, it could spell disaster for more than just ordinary blue cheese enthusiasts and cartoon mice. The inter-planetary cheese logistics industry is huge, supporting thousands of jobs. One of the hardest hit would be the specialist cheese monitoring system companies (CMS) back here on planet Earth.
Our inter-planetary correspondent, Tiny Wallop, sent us this latest report from The Dark Side...
-----
Union workers within the Moon's cheese mining industry are not happy. Their list of grievances include management's growing use of synthetic cheese as opposed to real moon-mined cheese. A representative from the mining union commented: “This whole place stinks. The CEO gets $29 million worth of free cheese every year. So tell me this - how does he get the fridge door shut?”
Another worker, one of a small group of pickets floating near a flaming brazier which was slowly melting a hole into the planet's crust, had this to say: “I can't list all my grievances because there's just too many. Cheese on toast, anyone?”
Yet another striking miner who had recently branched out and set up the planet's first lunar dairy farm commented: “Cows! What cows? Never click on a dodgy link that starts with Hey-Diddle-Diddle.”
-----
Back on Earth, we contacted Cheesing Machines, one of the planet's major cheese monitoring companies for comment. The CEO had this to say: “Moon Cheese is a huge part of our business. But we'll simply make up the deficit by increasing quality imports from Venus and Mars.
Imagine - you're a investor looking for something with promise; something with real potential. You're well aware that unearthing an investment gem is never easy. Then you stumble upon this: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7092944766446784512/
(thank you for the links guys)
But this DMS stuff's all new to you. So first you check out this guy on Linkedin: Colin Barnden. He's quoted by the LA Times, a Pulitzer Prize winning newspaper. So, fair enough - you do more digging.
Some time later...
Well, Barnden certainly seems to be all over the technology of what you now understand are Driver Monitoring Systems. Something which, up until today, you'd never heard of. Oh boy, he's certainly shredding the DMS fitted by Tesla. That's the company owned by legendary businessman Elon Musk, a guy so smart that his recent $44 billion Twitter investment is now worth around $15 billion (wait! What?).
Anyway, back to your research...
So now you might be thinking: if Elon makes the worst DMS, who makes the best?
Note: the Tesla in the above video - yes, that Tesla built with technology so 'advanced' that the owner of the company (who, by-the-way, is very smart) inaccurately named it Full Self Driving (Because it Isn't. Because it Doesn't. Because it Can't). Well that car; that cutting edge technological masterpiece, along with its unique onboard DMS, appears unconcerned that the driver it's now ensuring keeps both eyes firmly on the road is a - wait for it - a giant, glass-eyed teddy bear! But, hey, let's skip the Funny Farm and get back to the question at hand: who makes the best DMS?
Well Barnden appears to be a fan of the company Seeing Machines. And to back this up he's listing the household names already using their technology. There's Ford, Volkswagen, BMW, and General Motors, along with some you don't recognise: Veoneer and Magna (who are these guys? You haven't a clue - more research required) So if Barnden is right and this Seeing Machines outfit is actually supplying these global companies, this might be the investment you've been searching for. Of course, the down side will be the share price. It's bound to be into the stratosphere by now. But... wait, what's this? 5.94 pence! That's nuts! If Ford, GM et al are installing Seeing Machines tech' - 5.94 pence!
You pinch yourself - hard - just to make sure you haven't teleported back to the dot-com bubble of 2000, when you could buy a techie in the morning for pennies and by tea time be on holiday in Barbados for the rest of the year. Then, slowly, it dawns: The Market actually IS nuts.
But what's this? Another golden nugget: soon DMS must be fitted to every vehicle with four or more wheels - By Law! ALL OF THEM? Right, that's it, time to get serious... and remember next time not to nip your inner thigh quite so hard.
Psst! Now you're wondering why Google thinks you're searching for Sewing Machines. Right?
Thank you Old Fool.
Your comment 'original post gets buried' I would agree with. Someone tuning in during the evening might not see something posted much earlier in the day. But at least today's feedback (currently 67) indicates the volume of visitors on a 'sleepy' Thursday. Is that good or bad? I don't know, but I did expect there to be a silent majority.
What the above result also shows is the average 'life' of a single, isolated post. However, should a single post turn into a discussion thread, it's more likely to find a bigger audience due to extended exposure (why our doom-mongers try to elicit multiple responses).
Anyway, the final number will be interesting. Although I'm not expecting many more today. As you say – the post is now buried.
To all who helped with today's visitor count, thank you.
Collectively, we have no way of knowing how many registered individuals view this board. Of course we all know the regular posters, but do we also have a silent majority/minority who visit but never post? It would be interesting to know how many souls are using this board and, perhaps of more interest, the audience the doom-mongers are reaching.
So, in order to get a better understanding of total users, I'm asking a favour. If you give this post a 'recommend' we can shed some light on the average audience here on an average day (before the share price takes off and we're all suddenly millionaires).
Best,
Sandy.
P.S. Sorry... couldn't resist a good 'sudden millionaire' ramp
KWB,
You say that after pushing our share price lower, your work here is done (the relevant post has now been removed). So congratulations on your success. I'm guessing it's not just anyone who can single handily booby-trap a share price. Anyway, Good Job!
Now, as I also have the ability to alter future events, here's a prediction from me: not long after the tide on Aberdeen beach goes out – it'll come back in again.
Yes, you're right. I am smart - but not nearly as smart as you.
Seeing Machines Limited (AIM: SEE, "Seeing Machines" or the "Company"), the advanced computer vision technology company that designs AI-powered operator monitoring systems to improve transport safety, announces that on 28th July 2023, Mrs Sandykneesurfer, a person closely associated with Mr Sandykneesurfer, Chief Financial Officer of the Kneesurfer household, purchased a total of 60,034 ordinary shares (and added them to Mrs Kneesurfer's already ridiculously lopsided ISA investment in Seeing Machines) at a price of 4.9971 pence per Ordinary Share.
Following this purchase, Mrs Kneesurfer is now beneficially interested in too many Seeing Machines Ordinary Shares, representing far more than is sensible for an ordinary punter. When asked for comment, Mrs Kneesurfer said, “If he says, 'This time next year...' one more time - I'll ring his bloody neck!”
Usually, the reactions of investors to an under performing (or worse) share price will split into two categories: those who jump ship; and those who stick/average down/cross fingers/hide under the stairs. But under certain circumstances a third group can emerge. These are the few who believe The Market's current valuation of their chosen investment is an aberration.
As a general rule, I'm all for jumping ship when things go bad (much easier said than done). This strategy has cost plenty over the years, but has also avoided some even bigger loses. However, when The Market appears to be acting irrationally (and Private Frazer turns up on the board shouting, “We're all doomed!”) perhaps reflecting on hard facts might help avoid expensive mistakes. So sometimes – sometimes - an exception to a rule might be in order.
My most recent (and very rare) exception was with i3e, a UK based oil exploration company (I'll get back to SEE in a bit). I3e were drilling in the North Sea. The drill wasn't too far from their recent (back then) big discovery, Serenity, so the risk of this latest drill being a duster was 'obviously' minimal (that 'obviously' is why I don't do oilys). So they drilled the hole and – oops!
Now, talk about a rock and a hard place! i3e were already sitting on a huge discovery but the share price had crashed. Hard on the heels of this (long story short) in the middle of 2020 the company bought a Canadian oil producing asset for pennies on the dollar. I took a deep breath and averaged down, reducing my 33p average to 12p. The share price recovered – and suddenly my disastrous punt was making money! Some months later, i3e even began paying a dividend.
Now here's the thing... the only reason I stuck with my oily was because the facts and the underlying story were too good to ignore. At that time, a company with so much potential being priced around 4p was utter lunacy. Here they were, sitting on a significant North Sea discovery with Canadian production they'd acquired for pennies, and The Market valuation was, frankly, nonsense.
So what's the above story got to do with Seeing Machines? Well here's where I've broken my own rule again. Just like i3e, Seeing Machines' lowly share price doesn't make sense. The company's technology is in a class of its own. Proof of its prowess is evidenced by the multiple global customers buying, licensing, and integrating it into their own brands. In doing so they are firmly nailing their reputations to Seeing Machines' expertise. So either each and every one of our global partners has got their assessment of this company horribly wrong, or The Market's current valuation is wrong.
Now pause and consider this: with global industry players eagerly endorsing Seeing Machines, is this a time to jump ship, hide under the stairs, or is 5p a bit of a bargain?
... a Buy Order at 5p
HAGD
Welcome back. However, if only half the untruths on here aren't true - we're all off to the races!