Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
This has been painful to endure over the past 18 years! Today's news was very disappointing to say the least. My advice to all of us who have been in this for such a long time is to; exit the message board, stop following the stock movement and forget it's in our portfolios, recognize the substantial risk associated with such an investment before doing it again, and finally hope that POQ and the board will do everything possible to create value and figure out a way to monetize it so we each get an unexpected surprise in 24-36 months. For me, this is the healthiest way to deal with this experience. All the best to each of you.
Does anyone know the estimated cost to drill and frack the next two 3000 meter wells scheduled for 2nd quarter 2024? For some reason I was thinking I heard a number of $15M US per well? If Falcon has $5M cash and another $2.5M carry, that comes very close to covering Falcon's 22.5% responsibility based on a $30M total.
Based on the Q&A session, It doesn't seem like we have an immediate need for cash until several months down the road. By that time, the equity market may be valuing falcon much more favorable and an equity raise much less costly. My point was there are creative ways perhaps to raise cash that may be less costly. Our leader has been very creative to keep us in the game for years so I have confidence he will make a good decision for us who wait.
What if the debt raise was not traditional bank debt? Yes, debt becomes a priority over equity but it can be useful and perhaps less costly give the current stock value if we were forced to raise cash at these levels. If we need $20M-$30M US to get through the pilot program, the equity market at these levels would cost around 20%. What is someone or a group put up the $20M-$30M in the form of a debt instrument with a 3 yr balloon offering 15% accrued interest plus received a 5% equity kicker? That would offer a great opportunity to the unconventional lender and at the same time save falcon considerably on an exit at $1 per share, assuming my math is correct. Just thinking.
If we are fortunate to get good numbers on Monday, I'm wondering when the market will realize the margin benefit the Falcon interest holds over Tamboran and Daly Waters? If I understand correctly, both Tamboran and Daly Waters are subject to the 5% royalty payment to Origins while Falcon is not. I would think this is very significant going forward for the SP value. I'm also concerned that if the flow rate is good and we get an initial jump in SP, how POQ prevents the price from drifting back lower if announced that Falcon intends to remain in the game for the pilot program? Perhaps if Monday's number is great, just the threat of someone making an offer for the Falcon interest in the short term prevents that from happening?
Newtofo,
I'm with you on the nervousness and the lack of patience. You would think after almost 18 years, I would be less anxious, but not the case. I actually thought after watching Tamboran trade yesterday at the open, that maybe there was a leak on news and perhaps the well had been opened and a flare, but probably not the case based on the close. What makes this well seem different to me is this feels like the end of a long ugly road if we don't get good flow numbers. Hoping for the best! Merry Christmas to All.
I'm I missing something? Isn't this a huge piece of news for us? We have Bryan Sheffield, who is one of our largest stockholders and of Tamboran's, whose father Scotty makes a deal with Exxon worth $60B! Doesn't this speak volumes of their plan and strategy for the Beetaloo and our economic potential? If they can just get the Beetaloo gas to flow!
Camelot,
Why do you torture yourself and stay connected to this forum and remain an investor in falcon? You should realize by now that falcon must take the direction from the operating partner, whether that was Origins or now Tamboran as it relates to press releases relating to the drilling/testing campaign. I'm sure POQ is as frustrated as all of us relating to the explanation of the botched well that was given by Tamboran. If I recall in their initial press release they were the ones that said they would get back to investors once the lab completed the review. POQ said what they said when he made his press release. The fact that Tamboran has not offered any further explanation for the "skin" prevents POQ from making any statement without their authorization. Each of us have a right to express on this board our opinion of POQ"s business and leadership skills. I feel it serves no value when you attack him personally and hope you will keep those thoughts to yourself. If you think POQ is in this for the salary, then you need to understand the value of stock options and what those mean to executives and board members. Your healthy criticism is welcome and healthy for us who remain optimistic and hopeful.
It keeps us realistic and hopefully prevents us from making more emotional buys. Thanks for keeping it business.
Thanks Wet for helping me understand the timing of our cash needs in 2024 better. It's a total shame that we are in this position. Certainly not the fault of POQ because he couldn't control the decisions made by Riddle. We would never have remained in the game this long without the strategic maneuvering by POQ over the years. Hopefully Sheffield will flex his muscle and take greater control of decisions going forward.
Wise words Newtofo. If I understood POQ's comments from the Q&A correctly, we have the funds to cover our share of the costs of these next 2 wells from our $16M. That means there is no longer any buffer for mistake on these and we need to achieve successful flow rates. We will be faced with raising additional cash in 2024 and hopefully that will be from a position of strength (successful flow rates from the 2 wells) rather than weakness.
It would seem the recent action Tamboran has taken over the past few weeks to establish itself as the leader in the development of the Beetaloo along the announcements they have made to make that clear to the public and the market, is all strategic leading up to the release of what hopefully is positive flow data. Since Tamboran will need to go to the market for additional funding quickly, I'm of the opinion they look much better to investors by showing all the things they have in place and ready to go, rather than just releasing positive flow data on its own and then going to the market for a cash infusion. Some may think the release of all the other information prior to the flow data is a way to help mitigate poor flow results. I believe the market won't reward poor flow results regardless of other ancillary action, but will reward to a greater degree good flows from a group that has a comprehensive game plan in place to get gas to the market. Can't be much longer! I thought for sure the release would come before the AMG, especially when a Q and A session was announced for a call in after the meeting. Guess I was wrong with my thinking.
Jfhealy,
For some of us long time holders of this stock (for me now 17 painful years) it seems to be a tradition to speculate what results may be right before a pending news release. It may seem like a meaningless cause, but for some of us it acts as therapy to help endure the painful journey. So many times our bubble has been busted after thinking this time will be the one. We then get just a sliver of hope that the next time will be the turning point. As for me, I'm of the opinion we will get flow results between 3M-4M. I'm concerned that although this flow rate may be considered acceptable for commercial purposes, will it be enough to allow Tamboran to raise funds quickly to continue the drilling program and not lose momentum? Hope my guess is low on the actual flow and we get great results allowing the money to flow into Tamboran to keep things rolling.
If I understand the dates correctly, the additional shares were purchased at the same time as Origin was selling to Tamboran yet within the 30 day Falcon decision period, before a deal was made between Tamboran and Falcon? What was Sheffield's % interest in Falcon prior to this addition?
Thanks Wet and Hardrock for the response to my earlier question. Since it seems a visible flare is one hint of potential success during the approximate 30 day wait period, is it possible for the well flow to stabilize early in the 30 day flow test period and a flare no longer be needed (perhaps only flared for a week)? If it is no longer needed, would that mean that the flow rates are lower than hoped for and anticipated? Obviously, I have little knowledge of the technical workings of the process and appreciate all of the expertise that is found on this board. Been here since 2006, along with a few others on this board, and I find myself nervous and impatiently waiting since it feels like this 17 year journey has finally reached judgement day. A few names I wish to acknowledge and thank over the years for their expertise, contribution, and humor, some of which may no longer be involved or have changed their identity; Beamreach, The Knight, The annuity king, Newtofo, Wetwater, Poods. Special thanks to POQ; some may not share my opinion but without POQ, FO would not have survived to this day in order to have a chance for the success we all hope to achieve. May each of you be blessed!
I’m of the opinion that if the Kyalla proves to be successful, additional funding needs, if needed, can be handled without further stock dilution. I feel there may be a Hedge Fund or 2 that may be willing to provide funding through priority debt with a nice reward at payback. Just a thought. It’s a nice matter to deal with If Kyalla flow rates are good.
Wet,
That 3rd paragraph is priceless! Gave me a great laugh. You have been a great contributor to the board and I applaud your support of POQ. I actually have enjoyed the input of BO and Poods. I truly believe they love the potential of the asset and have the faith but they love dishing it out to POQ and I’m feeling confident he will have the last laugh; at least I hope. I feel Origins must have even greater confidence now as they decide to go at it again horizontally. I’m sure those 700 meters showed them something that encouraged them to charge forward.
Poods,
You are an interesting fella and I appreciate your posts during this time of waiting. Having met with Philip on a couple of occasions I am a huge supporter and think he has performed remarkably considering the hand he was dealt. Like you, I’m pretty seasoned and we just have different opinions on how to survive until we reach the only think that matters; drilling results. In the end, if they suck, we are going down in flames on this particular ride because all us long holders were never prepared to bail based on .10, .20, or .30. We are in this for the high risk/ high reward payday. Please keep your input coming as we wait. My greatest hope is to meet all of you long term holders from the early Bruner days at a celebration party in 2021 as we cash our chips. Judgement Day is coming soon.
Poods,
I’m curious to know the % chance you give in us having drilling and fracking success that would result in commercial flows allowing the Falcon interest to be sold? Also, I would be interested in the price range that you think we may achieve with a 2021 sale? Although I know you have been critical of Philip’s leadership, it appears to me you have a high degree of comfort in what lies underground and potentially can be extracted. You also appear from prior posts to be a well seasoned investor who at this stage of life does not just throw money to the wind. Thanks in advance for providing your opinion and I’m hopeful you along with the rest of us achieve great success with this investment.