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The steady profitable progress would then surely lead to a much needed rerating of the share price. I remember in a live session during the past year, the CEO said he would very much like to see the share price rerated so it was closer to some of Ince's peer group. He said to achieve that Ince must just continue to do what they were currently doing i.e. steady progress, not the inevitable turmoil of digesting an acquisition.
Cane Toad, I agree with you. The drawn down bank facility may well explain why the assurance that any acquisition would be paid for out of cash flow has been dropped for attempting to buy it with shares.
Surely Ince need 2 years of steady progress in the core business, showing increasing profitability, in order to demonstrate that it is an efficient, well run business.
I am hoping that Ince's offer for Arden will be withdrawn.
The steady fall in the Ince share price, since the offer was made, now means Arden shareholders would, at today's share price, receive 36% less value in terms of Ince shares. Surely there wouldn't be the necessary 70% approval from Arden shareholders for this offer.
Arden shareholders have already been offered 21.6% of the expanded Ince, and I hope Ince won't increase their offer and thereby offer them even more of our company. Arden's profitability record is patchy and their company is so much smaller than Ince.
Ince's focus could then revert to increasing the profitability of the core legal business and rebuilding investor confidence after this debacle.
Given the steep fall in the share price over past months, wouldn't it be best to cease pursuing a takeover of Arden? It is difficult to imagine how 70% of Arden shareholders would approve an offer based on the current very low share price, so further expenditure on this project may be simply wasted. At the moment confidence in Ince shares seems to be sadly at a low point, and I think it is partly due to the proposed takeover which seems to be a departure from the core business and has destabilised the prospect of a steady step by step improvement in the financial performance of Ince.
The CEO's huge bonus paid for a strong rise in the share price a few months ago looks sadly totally out of place. If I was in his position, I would without hesitation volunteer to repay it.
I own more than 1m shares in Ince and the current situation is very disappointing.
I am an optimist by nature and it hasn't been easy to write this message.
The price drop is uncomfortable. That's an understatement!
However, it seems to me that the performance of the company in the first quarter and the second quarter, puts it in a stronger place than it was a year ago. So the fundamentals are positive, but it is shareholder sentiment that has dropped, for several reasons, and so there are many more sellers than buyers at the moment.
I believe that over the next year, a positive financial performance will change the balance of sentiment, and the share price should rise.
Given where we are now and what has recently happened, I would prefer the take over of Arden to be dropped. I would expect that a significant number of both Ince and Arden shareholders would feel the same way. If this action is taken then, a large cloud of smoke would be cleared and I would expect the Ince share price to pick up more quickly after presentation of the first 6 months results.
Retired Banker. Thank you for sharing your Ince assessment. I agree that it was very strange to be caught out by the suspension. I was surprised that neither Ince or indeed Arden appeared to see that coming. I am not an expert in such matters, but I would have expected that someone in one company or the other would have understood the rule in question.
I hadn't expected a significant takeover proposal for Ince this year, and was simply hoping for a year of settled progress, but our CEO is clearly dynamic and feels this is an opportunity worth taking. Let's see what the other Arden shareholders think about the proposed takeover and also see whether Ince including Arden will meet the required criteria to be reappointed by the LSE as a nominated adviser.
Cane Toad, thank you for today's posts. They are informative.
I agree with your conclusion.
At times like this, caution makes us question what is going on, especially when we know so little detail of what is going on and why it is taking so long to appoint a nomad.
However, we know Ince advised that the first quarter year produced good results and they forecast a similar outcome for the second quarter. They said they expect to start paying a dividend soon out of profits, and there is no doubt that they see the Arden possible take over as positive for Ince. If there were big issued going wrong behind they scenes, they surely wouldn't have embarked on taking over Arden.
The CEO is clearly very dynamic and determined to grow Ince, and so I really doubt that he will drop the ball at this moment and see Ince delisted. It would be such a big mistake that it isn't at all likely that this would happen.
I think more will be revealed in due course and things will settle in a positive way, but I agree that the current situation feels very uncomfortable indeed.
It would be best to call off the takeover if there is any risk of Ince being delisted. Arden shareholders would have no interest in receiving unlisted Ince shares, and the share trade formula wouldn't function without an AIM quoted Ince share price.
I therefore can't believe that Ince would allow delisting to happen.
I too am sure that the the Ince directors are focused on restoring trading in Ince ordinary shares as soon as may be possible, and are currently in discussions with an alternative Nominated Adviser.
I have a significant shareholding in Ince, and look forward to a dynamic progressive future for the company.