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Carlos: I agree. I will hold fire. few pennies shouldn't make that much of difference when we have lost ove a pound!
Jay/ Dave: 51 should be achievable especially if we get POC approval but I don't think we will see a pound ever.
I have been going through the Plaing RNS and came to the conclusion that this was planned a while ago.
Firstly, DB assumed that we will be flying with BC and we don't need to sell anywhere else (like India) and must have turned down a decent offer from Divoc. Soon to realise that nothing was happening from BC.
Secondly, POC, HCV and AIHL failed to materialised and generate any income to support their lavish lifestyle.
He must have turned to II/ mates for funds when we were at 40p and must have agreed to place at 25p. But then sudden spike happened with India news and he panicked along with his IIs. Hence the sudden brake RNS.
Thirdly, he knew that there will be news on CE marks for AIHL and POC in October that will push the SP up, jeopardising his and his mates plans for cheap shares and no income for at least few more months. He cunnigly chose to do the placing well before it was needed and f**k his shareholders in favour of his II mates. And this is where we stand.
I agree with some comments below that it is unlikely for SP to drop too much because PEEL & Finn (the main beneficiaries) will not allow the SP to go below the placing price till 1st October. If they do, then there will be no takers of OO which will affect their plans to make money. They may end up accumulating the surge of sold shares but keep the price steady.
I assume that there will be a brief fall on 1st October followed by regain or small rise with the market confidence of financial security achieved. Then we hope to have some news on CE marks on AIHL (no doubt there) and POC (just hoping) and we go back to some decent SP level.
Still need to make a decision what to do tomorrow.
The painful thing is the GDR test is still there on BC website claiming to be the 'best in class' solution to save the humanity test! Extremely disappointing finish.
Is there any hope to even recoup the original investment? Still not sure what to do on Monday
Thanks Dave. Just need to think about this over the weekend and not make any rash decisions.
Part of me still think that DB and his II mates have some dubious plans especially to shaft the impatient holders but I am not going to think too much. Biggest dilemma is to either come out and re-enter in October or stay!
Jace, my average will be 75p if I take the OO but, for a change, I agree with you that DB can't be trusted. Hence I don't think we will see breakeven point in near future. But I disagree that this will go in single digits like pre-covid because of successful AIHL project. I am not sure whether I should get out now and wait for rest of September or leave it as it is. My guess is that there won't be much movement in SP for rest of the month (25 to 30p).
It looks like some people have been missing me. It also looks like some of you have been celebrating for getting it right. OK, you win. There is nothing more to discuss. I was optimistic and believed that GDR/BC would have sold something! Lost a lot of money here but trying to work out the next move. I tried to digest the last co*k up by my favourite DB yesterday and only managed to sleep for few hours, so please keep it gentle. There is no point in 'i told you so' discussion please.
So we are now sitting at 28p which is basically the same as 41p with possible diluted shares (106m now) with around 26m market cap. Can we justify this MCAP? I think it is solely based on potential AIHL business in UK (£5m) and few £s from other small businesses. We know that there is no competition or alternative there. CE mark shouldnt be a problem as it is just change of instrument design. There is very little chance of this business going away. If we get into EU to capture £30m market then there should be some upside but this will be next year unless the market gives us favourable push on CE marking. Considering this to be long term business, we can expect at least 3-4 times MCAP (ie around £1/share) at best!
POC: Considering how we messed up with PCR, not sure how much rise we will get on CE approval.
PCR: Wait and see game there. IF we get FDA approval, it should help us recover some losses but it looks like the DB is not interested there anymore after messing up with Indian deal.
HCV: Not clear what is happening there. There was no update about any issues they mentioned in the RNS. Needs more clarity.
The new share come in trading on 1st October. This leaves nearly 3 weeks for SP to move around 25p mark. I personally am not keen to take the OO shares but will have to see where we go in next 3 weeks. I am currently 70% down with average of 89p. If I move anywhere else, I will need 300% rise. My plan will be to hold it to atleast 45p and then move. I just hope that we will reach there in October with 2 CE marking news.
What do people think?
Thanks Preefty. Have more or less switched off from here for few days. Plenty of green boxes adding great value to the discussion! One news (out of many in pipeline) will make this SP a history forever. The disbelievers will reply with their version of truth and opinions. Inphobe & Rizq seems to be there to counter their arguments. Thanks guys.
I am sure the eagle eyed people here have already noticed a new link on BC website on GDR product page titled 'scheduled Order'! Any idea of what this could be? People working in this field may be able to shed some light. Sound like something similar to 'tracking order already placed'.
All I have shown is the potential of GDR. It all depends on BC as the production capacity is their own published figure and not mine. Go and tell them that they are wrong.
Don't worry about me, I have enough well wishers who understand my position.
That's all for today
My target of 160p is still there. It is now a bit lower with some average down. This is where I become mortgage free! Big thing for me. Said that few times before but I am sure the gutter dwellers with note pads of people's previous posts conveniently ignore that information.
Dave: Still not a fan of DB and can kill him for what he did last time round. It is not upto DB to sell now. It is upto BC.
Can anyone else have more info to prove my calculations wrong? 'Not sold a bean' etc is not a valid excuse because no one here knows of sales figure.
It will be great Rookie. I have said this few times that this is the GDR potential from PCR. No one knows whether and how much will BC be able to sell or is selling. It only accounts for 250 labs using 10 pack kit a day in UK/ US/ EU. Even 10% of that means a lot of money.
The doubters will declare me and BigAl 'liars' but it is actually them who are ignorant and have no clue of what business potential means and how companies are valued. The lack of sales figure is why we are sitting at this price. Not for long though.