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@Captain: unfortunately I am not running the company so don't know what to do with those machines. I don't think they have enough business to make use of them currently. But if there is placing to buy the machines then I would take it as a great sign. It will mean that ODX have secured enough work to need those equipments
Finally, don't blame yourself for your losses. You all did because ODX was put in a very strong position by our elected Government. Why on earth anyone would deny the fact the Govt eneded up spending £19million in machinery in a small manufacturing company? Everything was lined up for ODX. I blame the fat controller for not making full use of the opportunity. It was too big for him to deal with. How can someone allow such an opportunity to slip? He should have been meeting with them on daily basis and made it happen. Not just sit on your ars* and wait for it to miraculously happen by itself!
But this is where we are. ODX still have those machines and should be negotiating with Govt to put it in use for something. Atleast bill them for storage and maintenance costs in proprtion to the value of the machines. 2-3% per year will keep some of them in the job. Or just start using them and don't mention anything. When they ask for the return, just get them cleaned and send them. Why on earth ask for any approval fo their usage. Govt were supposed to remvoe the machines within one month of contract end. Aren't we few months since then?
I think British Diagnostics don't have a clue how the business works. Being honest doesn't get you anywhere. Look at Avacta, why on earth they needed to declare the withdrawl of their LFT to change some reactors in the strip? You had all the approvals, you found out that it can be made better. Just do it and get on with the business. Who is going to check the components of your test strip? why shaft your SH in unnecessarily?
So it is not you who made wrong decision. It didn't work as it was supposed to be because of incompentent and corrupt people behind the scene.
8.Placing: I don't think there will be any placing needed for 2-3 months. Cetainly not at >50% discount. The last placing before 2020 was done at 18p with SP of 19.25p. Again, some self-proclaimed saviour on twitter started the conversation again. He certainly had his as* burned by all Covid stocks. Evenif placing takes place at say 7 or 8p, what difference will it make to most here whose average is 50-100p? Is there any point in saving few pounds when you are down thousands (on paper). At least wait for the next rise.
9. Directors sell off: I can see that two of the Directors sold out at peak. We don't know why but it wasn't mass sell as portrayed by many people. We don't know what personal circumstances those people had. Anyway, it was their money and they cashed in. You ahd the same opportunity. I agree that they should now come in and put some of their own money in the business.
10. Future: ODX certainly has more establised non-covid business than some others. The current SP is ridiculous and doesn't take into account of anything positive. It should be around 15-20p (may be more) without Covid. Any positive news on Covid front, this will shoot up very quickly. Hold for that rise. Personally, I don't think ODX will reach £1 but 40-50p is definitely achievable. I would hold for the time being but in the end it is your money.
Good luck all holders. Bring on tomorrow and see some recovery.
Hi all. Sorry to see SH shafted in yet another AIM fiasco. Been in GDR and lived through painful times of last crash. Stopped posting a while ago but has been reading the BB there and here. Leant a lot. Always had soft corners for all UK diagnostics. Have done some reading on ODX fundamentals and came to some conclusions as below:
1. Before COVID, company had reasonable business and only needed minor raises every 3-5 years but most were used for expanding the business.
2. HIV and allergy business in current state (Clinton foundation deal, China and US potential) should get the company in profit in very near future. It used to run in profit few years ago but then came the Fat Controller (CK) and turned the business upside down! Heard him speak on few occasions and have to say, he made David Budd (GDR CEO) look like a superhero. I am sure people here know how bad Budd has been.
3. HUA CE: I have never seen CE mark refused for anything (I am sure it is possible). They ususally ask for more information and guide the applicants towards an approval. I am sure it is the case with Visitect. Looking at other approvals, ODX shouldn't be too far away. This news will get ODX a much needed spike which may go in same way as GDR if backed up by some business deals.
4. Mologic FDA EUA: Can't comment as FDA have been nototiously unreliable with approvals for non US companies. It may be different for Mologic due to their US contacts. If it comes then it has potential to bring back sustained rise.
5. CTDA: What a **** show that has been. They only have 4 more weeks before their own deadline of exemptions. I think they will do one of the 2 things: First: scrap the process altogether and make a big U turn (seen that happen frequently with the Tories). Secondly, approve all the applications en mass on the deadline and tweek the system to suit them for future. Didn't DAM say that this process didn't affect their deal with ODX? Who knows!
6. DAM deal: To my surprise, the relaxation of travel testing has already happened but most other countries will still continue with atleast LFTs. I don't think DAM will go bust. UK has never had flourishing private lab businesses and DAM will restructure their business beyond Covid. They are already advertising 'Gut health' as a business and I believe ODX will get some deal for their allergy testing.
7. Twitter morons: They will continue to spout uncomfortable sh*t. What kind of a person end up spending their weekend on a share BB they are not invested in, taking pleasure in other's financial losses, wishing them further losses and comparing the SH to people committing suicide? They think that they are great because they predicted the future correctly. It was the same for GDR and CINE. They always disappear when it suits them.
Cont
Hi Star: there is no doubt that POC Cov test is a great product and at par with RT PCR tests. The problem is whether it will be acceptable to replace the PCR tests and adopters will be happy to use it. Currently COVID test market is heavily regulated globally. Eg. Travel industry will not accept any tests that doesnt have 'RT PCR' written on it.
I see POC getting bigger market share than assumed by FinnCap but not straightaway. Maybe this time next year. The CE mark will help us go north but I don't see it going past 50p. The new investors will take the profit and runaway. And I will too. May be come back in after Easter.
The game now is to recoup our original investment and you need to think about your strategy. I already have and plan to get out if we reach 40p.
LTH, you have b*lls to trust DB! I am worried that this is turning into a blind faith. I never liked the man. Remember Indian approval RNS: He essentially claimed that the indian market can't afford our 'PREMIUM PCR Tests'!! I don't know what he will be doing with all his premium beads sitting in his garage. I am sure he and his BOD mates will be shoving them in their ar*es to have some premium fun during their expensive night parties. This guy is a disgrace to be a CEO.
The problem is they know the PCR market is competitive, mainly on price, so why not negotiate with potential labs and reduce everyones profit margins to sell something? Start some income even if it is at the rate of a pound per test. Talk to cytiva and BC to come to some agreement. Instead, he has decided to jump on us to save the business. He has also thrown all his employees' hard work in the bin and given up on PCR sales completely.
Do you still believe that he will sell anything evenif we get POC approval? Unfortunately, I don't.
The brokers have kept us hanging at 25p mark but I am afraid tomorrow will change everything. Once they have taken all the money from people for OO, they will be under no obligation to support the SP. I would love to be wrong but won't be checking anything tomorrow.
Lth: my issue is not about them not getting sales in US. They knew how things were progressing when we got Indian approval. Instead of renegotiating any business, they took MINUTES to throw it in the bin. I doubt that they even discussed anything with DIVOC. DB has already drawn plans for easy route to get his money from us instead. I still can't understand monthly cashburn of £0.4m!! Just an example of Cineworld. Their cashburn for nearly 1000 cinemas was 60m, that is £60,000 per cinema per month!! What the f**k are they spending this much money on???
Lth: I have no money to move hence not taking the OO. There was no attraction at current SP. As far as the issue of supporting the company, I personally have given up on the current management. I can't get that trust back, so can't commit more money to them. I am already neck deep here already but DBs failure has made me think again.
Toma: there will be 10m cash in the bank but your assumtion of 25m MCAP needs justification. At the moment, they only have potential business of around 5m/year from AIHL UK sales in 12 months time. It is not clear whether that will be total earning or profit.
The more I read about POC, my doubts are becoming stronger. They are NOT PCR tests! I am not sure where they stand as confirmatory test scale. Can they be used instead of PCR? If yes, do we need regulatory bodies to approve them as an alternative to PCR? This will be crucial for usage in medical and travel sectors. Otherwise it will be considered as another expensive version of LFT.
I did not take the OO as I could buy in open market at the same price. Peel have worked hard to keep the SP around this level so far and they will continue to hold for until the money is taken out of your account. I doubt that anything will change for good after 1st October until CE mark news.
Jimi: with all The news materialised, we should see around 50p and then slow drift until some sales news on those products.
I have my doubts on SP reaching 87p in near future. It will still be a bit short from breakeven of 89p for me.
The question is whether I can get 400% rise anywhere else..
I am more inclined to move some of my money to ODX etc as they are due some news soon and then jump back in or move it again to HYVE/NEX and leave it there for a year. Better chance of recovery there especially in HYVE once all the conferences start happening. At least They are not in need of additional cash and may end up being bought by some Chinese investments. I believe that there will be lot of FTSE businesses targeted by these foreign investors over next 12 months.
Just a thought...
Rbr: I kept pumping money at 81p, 63p, 51p etc etc, thinking that it can't go any lower and now nearly 75% down. Is it worth adding more? Is it the bottom?
Basic calculation for MCAP at the moment:
£12m in cash
£20m (£5m/Yr if AIHL is rolled out in whole UK x 4)
Total £32m /106m shares: 30p
Other businesses are not generating huge amount. FinnCap assumes 14m income from POC but I find it optimistic at best.
Rbr: what I understand is that the only way to stop dilution will be to vote on 'whole' of the placing including II. If it goes ahead, they will release the OO shares and wee what happens.
What I recall from ODX placing last year, I was in two minds on taking the offer because the SP was close to 40p placing price. But they pushed The price up few pence on last couple of days and I ended up taking the shares, only to find SP drift down to 30p over next few days. More or less same with IAG. The new price with dilution was 150p and they are still struggling to reach there.
I am not saying that GDR won't recover to 50p but it will take time. No brainer to enter at this price. I also see temporary drift in SP after the placing! I would love to be wrong.
Pacman: that is exactly what I have been thinking. £400,000/month cashburn to essentially run an office!!! They don't have factory to run. No products to manufacture. We can understand higher costs when they were developing products but they have done sh*t all since March but the cashback remains the same
Jay: I am finding it very difficult to believe anything the company says. I am still trying to recover from the FACT that they failed to sell anything through BC with CE approval achieved a year ago. How can we trust them to sell POC after CE approval?
The only saviour is AIHL but they are not expecting full coverage for at least a year.
I certainly don't see me recovering my losses (89p average, 75p if I take OO) for at least 2 years IF everything goes as per plan.
I will make a decision next week whether to stay or move.
Jimi: the only way to stop placing is to vote against it on 30th Sept meeting. If we do then the BOD will scare you of imminent collapse of the company as they have said in RNS with funds running out in 4 months.
It will not make any difference if you take the offer or not, there will be others who will request more shares than they are entitled. They will let the SP rise to few pence above 25p to attract the buyers. They will dump the excess shares as soon as they get it, even with 5% profit. This is usually the reason why the SP drops below placing price in following days.