Utilico Insights - Jacqueline Broers assesses why Vietnam could be the darling of Asia for investors. Watch the full video here.
An interesting article from TrustNet (published earlier today) around the positions of the top 10 shorted companies including Hammerson, who have re-entered the top 10, albeit in an improved position when they dropped out (Oct of last year).
"The share price of Hammerson and Travis Perkins dropped 30.7% and 39% over the past year, but hedge funds have been less inclined to short them in recent months."
https://www.trustnet.com/news/13353788/positive-sign-for-uk-companies-as-firms-lower-shorts-positions
IMO, there is a fairly strong upward resistance level at 26p (and a weaker level around 25.5p), and this kind of pre-planned selling is normal for the course. If the SP breaks through those levels (at least for a couple of consecutive days), then I feel we will see a rise to around 31-32p before another resistance level is found.
I am holding but think that 2023, will be a long slow grind, with around 35 by Q4 (a 45% increase on 22 year-end)
Likewise I expect a sustained period of slow to moderate growth throughout 2022, based on the easing of restrictions / people (Governments) needing to learn to live with COVID, and the SP rise with a base of around 40p
Another retail property company (Regional and Capital) albeit with a slightly different focus but still on shopping centres, released their positive trading update today.
https://www.drapersonline.com/news/rent-payment-lettings-and-footfall-rise-at-capital-regional
No reason why HMSO should not be seeing similar trends.
Personally (although still positive about the mid term), I think the trading update will be lacklustre, and not show any significant improvement over the last few updates. Many matters are dragging on, such as the planning permissions in Leicester and Dublin and I would like to see some clarity around the strategy review that was announced at the annual results in March and the hiring of McKinsey to oversee such a review. Will be looking for RRG to step up now, she used the March announcements to clear the deck of the company history, now is the time for her to start showing her leadership and way forward, i.e. what she was hired for. Prediction of another scrip div at 2p possibly up to 2.5p.
Update on NAV, and the current discount to NAV would also be useful.
The drop is more likely a leaking of this story earlier in the day
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-ban-on-commercial-evictions-introduced-during-the-pandemic-to-be-extended-until-2022-govt-source-says-12333600
I understand the need to provide hospitality (and some other) businesses a fighting chance to survive, but these decisions need to be balanced with support for the landlords, they are not a charity to keep the UK high street alive.
From Retail Gazette
https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2021/05/hammerson-hires-management-consultants-to-assist-with-group-strategy/
Hammerson has reportedly hired management consultants McKinsey & Company to advise on its ongoing strategic review.
Gagné is expected to update investors on the progress of her strategic review of the business in early August.
Will be interesting to see the planning decision in June, on the ex-Debenhams Leicester store conversion to rental apartments and Ground Floor Retail units. If successful, I am sure this type of change-of-use activity will form a key part of that review.
There is definitely resistance at the 40p level, but each time the SP drops (and as someone mentioned a couple of days ago) it is at a higher low point, (think of a triangle with a flat line on the top (At the 40p level) and the bottom line moving from left to right joining the low points. The line is moving upwards i.e. the trend is positive and with the price now fluctuating between 39 and 40 the break is coming very soon. If it breaks to the upside (which the trend indicates) then the next real resistance point is over 60p. (minor resistance around 45. Of course all imho, but would expect a rise to 50p in the next few weeks.
Posted as in similar space to HMSO:
Capital & Regional today provided an update on trading and rent collections following the 25 March 2021 quarter date and April monthly collection cycles and the re-opening of non-essential retail from 12 April 2021.
Lawrence Hutchings, CEO of Capital & Regional said:
"We are pleased to see 95% of our retailers back open for trading. Footfall is recovering to some of the strongest levels we have seen since the start of the pandemic, running at approximately 80% against the corresponding weeks of 2019. Whilst we remain in the early stages of the government's roadmap out of lockdown, initial feedback is encouraging with retailers indicating higher average transaction values reflecting pent up demand and support for physical retailing. This underpins our continued confidence in the appeal for consumers of physical retail and the important role ou r centres play in supporting their local communities. Thank you to our teams for all the hard work in ensuring our retailer customers stores and our centres reopened quickly and safely to serve our local communities. The re-opening of non-essential retail is a critical milestone on the pathway back to a stabilised trading environment and provides the first step towards unwinding the significant levels of uncertainty impacting the physical retail industry."
Operations
Positive operational momentum following reopening of non-essential retail
-- 95% of our units, comprising 602 stores, have re-opened and trading across the Group's seven shopping centres.
-- Footfall in the two weeks since the re-opening of non-essential retail on 12 April 2021 has been up 126% on the
prior two weeks, equivalent to approximately 80% of the corresponding weeks of 2019.
-- Occupancy remains strong at 90.9% at 31 March 2021.
-- Of the quarterly rent due on or since the 25 March 2021, we have received 53%. In total we have received 59% of
the rent due for the year to date, encompassing the rent due on or since the 25 December 2020 quarter date.
-- Leasing progress has been encouraging following the re-opening on 12 April 2021. Retailers continue to be
attracted to our community centres and strategy in vibrant neighbourhoods and our affordable, sustainable rents
at GBP12-GBP15 psf.
Along the lines of HMSO converting Debenhams into flats, the following was announced today.
City of London to turn empty offices into homes
========================================
The City of London has announced they are planning to turn empty offices into homes in a bid to revive the capital's financial district post-pandemic.
COVID-19 has changed ways of working, with many businesses now considering keeping people away from the office and at home long-term.
There are plans to create at least 1,500 new residential units in the city's Square Mile by 2030, according to a new report published today by the City of London Corporation.
According to the BBC, these will be created using mixture of new developments and the refurbishment of old buildings.
There are also plans to offer empty spaces to creatives at low-cost and to up the city's weekend and night-time offerings with big events.
These may include traffic-free weekends in summer or an all-night cultural celebration, the City of London corporation said.
Lord Mayor of the City of London, William Russell, said the plans would help the city "rise to the challenge of adapting to the new normal that emerges after the pandemic".
Continuation from previous message.
Harry Badham
Hammerson is going through the process of repositioning its shopping centres, transforming them from mainly retail with a bit of food and leisure to mixed-use schemes including homes, hotels and offices, as well as the aforementioned retail and leisure. In that sense, new Chief Development and Asset Repositioning Officer Harry Badham will play a key role in Hammerson’s future. Badham’s most recent high-profile project at previous firm AXA was 22 Bishopsgate, an office tower that attempted to incorporate far more amenities than the average skyscraper, including educational and conference facilities as well as a health centre and food hall. He will be looking to bring that mix of uses to a more horizontal rather than vertical type of building.
A good summary article from BISNOW.COM about the new board.
https://www.bisnow.com/london/news/commercial-real-estate/whos-who-in-the-great-hammerson-boardroom-overhaul-108641
— —— ——-
In less than a year, the leadership of the shopping centre REIT Hammerson has been transformed — the company, whose share price has dropped 75% in the past two years, is trying to overhaul its strategy, and in record time it has brought in a series of new directors to key roles.
Following two new appointments last week, here are the players who will determine whether a company once in the FTSE 100 can adapt to the new world of consumerism and urban living.
Rob Noel
Hammerson announced in June that former Landsec Chief Executive Rob Noel would take over from David Tyler as chairman of the company. Tyler’s seven-year stint in the chair saw the company try to take over rival Intu but get knocked back by shareholders (Intu subsequently went bust) and reject a takeover offer from Klépierre at more than 10 times today’s share price. Noel’s first task was to find a new CEO to replace the outgoing David Atkins, who led those two deals with Tyler.
Rita-Rose Gagné
The choice the company made was Rita-Rose Gagné, president of Growth Markets at Canadian pension fund investor Ivanhoé Cambridge. As a female CEO at a listed UK real estate firm, she is a rarity, and as someone who had been working in Latin America and Asia, she was not a well-known name in UK real estate. The company was already trying to transform from a retail specialist to a mixed-use developer, but Gagné is undertaking a further strategic review to determine the company’s future. She has done no interviews since she took over in November, and the market is still guessing about what the review will bring.
Grégoire Peureux
One of Gagné’s first acts when she took over in November was to bring in an ally — Grégoire Peureux, with whom she worked at Ivanhoé Cambridge, was appointed the company’s first ever chief operating officer. The aim is to change the way the company operates as well as what it builds, buys and rents — Gagne’s comment on Peureux’s appointment was that his “new perspective will ensure we become more agile.”
Himanshu Raja
Previous Chief Financial Officer James Lenton said he was leaving in January, and last week the company announced that he would be succeeded by Himanshu Raja. For a company trying to get closer to the needs of consumers, his CV reads well — he was previously CFO at estate agent Countywide, and other roles include stints at G4S and Logica.
Continued.....
Personally I had no issue with Ephemeral's post, as it raised a number of the points I think myself. It is a good start for the new leadership team, and RRG is one of the main reasons I have increased my holding, however we are not out of the woods yet, otherwise the share-price would be a lot stronger.
I like a wide range of diverse thoughts as it is good to challenge ones own assumptions, if we were all all of one mind on the board, then there is no value except for potential false confidence.
Still think HMSO is a hidden gem, and we will see a moderate rise in the short term, but for me the real value is mid-long as the change-of-use for certain properties kicks in.
Not an in-depth recommendation, but another positive from the Motley Fool from yesterday. Definitely starting to gain some momentum on the positivity of the recovery play.
https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2021/04/10/2-penny-stocks-id-buy-right-now/
Would be interesting to know what the Asset Value was on those Retail parks.
I am sure the current board would not be selling the assets at the (approximate) 53% discount which the share price is showing against NAV.
So if these assets were sold at their book value (as of the recent write downs) they would be about 5.5% of the total estate (£350m against £6.2b) - the equivalent of just over 2p on the current share price.
That 2p is now cash and will not be discounted by the (bricks and mortar) 53% which should (in a logical market) uplift the share price by 2p tomorrow.
The easiest way to think about this is, if all the assets were sold for cash at their Asset Value, the share price (excluding all other factors) would be 81p (the current NAV).
Apologies if this is a dumb question, but could the NAV of a property increase by a change of usage. i.e. the Debenhams sites that may struggle to get retail tenants, being converted into apartments that presumably would be much more sought after?