Let's take stock17 Jan 2023 22:04
Right, I know it's been an emotional day for many holders. I'm in pain too. I have to say though, I'm still in disbelief at the price action. And before anyone asks, yes I did read the trading update. Let's remind ourselves where we are:
Pros:
Revenue grew across the three main divisions.
Ingenuity is showing signs of massive scale.
Cutting costs through reducing headcount.
Cutting costs through scaling down loss making divisions (ondemand).
Inflationary pressures will be easing, especially whey.
Valuation is so low compared to peers (especially vs Ocado).
Cons:
Board cannot be trusted with their guidance.
Ingenuity hasn't had the growth we'd all hoped (yet).
Chairman is nowhere to be seen.
Golden share has not been dropped even though it was promised it would.
Those are the main ones for me. But remember in our last trading updates when Moulding and the board were being scalded for not keeping their mouth shut? They've kept their mouths shut, delivered pretty good numbers all things considered, albeit missing target, and are aware of the macro so they are cutting costs. Governance is important to the market, and I wish Charles would sort this out, it's what he was hired for after all!
With all that being said, the board aren't perfect and I wish they'd act more like a publicly listed company should, but the business is delivering compared to its peers. This to me shows the resilience of the business, and if and when we can ramp up Ingenuity, the tide could change. I'm still not completely sold on Ingenuity.
I would take an MBO or M&A at 200p at this stage though.
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