Member Info for ryanf

Yorek, Oliver still owns more than 1% of THG shares so I think he'd just prefer the share price to go up, not down!

Oliver Cookson response to city spy:

"#THG has pretty much been a

@Myprotein

trading shell since 2011. Back then, they were selling CDs online at a loss. Today's results, once again, make that clear.

While there's potential for Ingenuity to change their course, the current traction is very disappointing.

Shareholders must be once again disappointed by these results.

Some serious conversations and difficult decisions must be had."

Wonder what difficult decisions could be made?

Newby12, I don't know what you were reading but THG results were not good and hence there is a negative read across, and why THG is down 15%+. I expect it to keep falling as it has near to £1bn market cap and Ingenuity is basically a flop (have always said this). When you tear back the business to just nutrition and beauty, it becomes somewhat quite similar to asos and Boohoo. Yet in asos's case, it has at least 50% higher revenue, likely more sticky customers and a proven track record to make significant profit when the macro improves, yet the market cap of asos is half of THG!

Before anyone jumps on me for THG comments, I really do like nutrition part of THG, but I think it got a little over hyped on the buyout news and the valuation didn't make sense compared to asos.

Boohoo has about half the revenue of asos, admittedly it has a better balance sheet, i.e. more cash and less debt, and currently better margins but if asos can achieve comparable margins through their turnaround program I expect asos to be worth double whatever boohoo is. Plus I believe the asos brand(s) is much stronger than Boohoo, so maybe even higher. Baring in mind the market caps of the two are very similar currently.

It's clear Ashley thinks this too as he has double the position in asos compared to Boohoo.

Al4x, you mention investing in Easyjet for the recovery play. The recovery from covid yes, and depending on when you invested there you'll have missed a lot of the rally already.

Investing here you're investing on a cost of living recovery, which I think will come next year sometime. But the recovery in SP could come before then and buying at the lows mean your returns get supercharged when it recovers.

The bounce at 390 looks good on the chart. I should really start listening to my own advice!

ryanf

Posts: 808

Price: 403.90

No Opinion

RE: Share price8 Sep 2023 09:35

Just from my reading of the charts, we can go as low as 390 and still respect the upward channel of higher highs and higher lows.

Just from my reading of the charts, we can go as low as 390 and still respect the upward channel of higher highs and higher lows.

The last time asos released a "trading update" prior to FY results was in 2020 when they materially upgraded their guidance in advance of the FY results. I think they're going to tell us whether they are significantly above or below their guidance.

I've emailed investor relations to try and get information as to the structure of the trading update.

I'd say relative performance against Boohoo would suggest some big player thinks the trading update will be positive...

Wrong, qube trade with algorithms

If shorts increase and trend has changed to bullish, the greater the squeeze upwards when they close out.

Fast fashion illustrates the principle of the survival of the fittest. UK contenders Boohoo and Asos are decidedly out of breath.

The online-only pair have lost 90 per cent of their value since the era of lockdowns and low interest rates. Fashion heavyweight Frasers Group, controlled by Sports Direct entrepreneur Mike Ashley, is circling with stakes in both. Frasers upped its holding in Boohoo to one-tenth on Friday, sending shares in the laggard sharply higher.

Frasers is now run by Ashley’s son-in-law Michael Murray. It has diversified across sports, premium and discount retailing following a spate of acquisitions. An opportunistic push into young women’s fashion is a natural next step.

Boohoo specialises in clothing for young women along with its other brands Nasty Gal and PrettyLittleThing. These would pair well with Missguided, which Frasers acquired out of administration last year. A tie-up between Asos and Boohoo is also an option. Both are expected to be lossmaking this year. A defensive merger would save costs.

Past form, however, suggests Frasers might achieve the same results by taking a subtler approach than consolidation.

A 10 per cent Hugo Boss stake first acquired in 2020 grew to a position equal to one-third of the fashion house’s shares. That was used to increase collaboration and get more of the German brand’s higher-end kit into Frasers’ stores. Growth has since picked up and Hugo Boss shares have almost tripled since Frasers’ initial investment. It is now taking profits and has sold down some of its stake.

Britain’s cash-strapped consumers and slowing growth mean fashion remains deeply out of favour with wider investors. Frasers’ shares trade at nine times forward earnings, the bottom of their historical trading range. The broader FTSE apparel sector is trading similarly. Opportunistic dealing by one of its shrewdest participants is a good reason to think a second wind is not that far away.

By my approx calculations, they're down £650k in 3 weeks. Could get a lot worse for them, hopefully.

Thanks smugger, didn't realise it wasn't cash settled but that makes a lot of sense with the voting rights!

Yea you're right turtlehead. The more the SP goes up, the more likely the put options are worthless to the holder (I.e. those who bought the puts off Mike). So Mike will only own 10% or whatever he has in actual stock but will have collected a hefty premium in doing so. I reckon about £5m in put premium alone.

I call BS Al4x. Its OK to be wrong.

Thought you were going to wait to buy Al4x?

Al4x

Posted in: ASC

Posts: 119

Price: 373.60

No Opinion

RE: SUB £4. Coming22 Aug 2023 23:52

I'll still be watching. It's an interesting share to watch as I've been watching it for a long time. Also how the boards behave. Both ramping and deramping.

There are only a small number of posters who post with any form of facts, some for some against. It's a shame so many posts are just ramping and deramping with no actual content to support either view.

I'll be watching for an improvement vs it's peers over this summer. I won't be going back in before that happens. And if it doesnt. I won't be going in at all.

Trading halted!

I'm a willing seller, all it'll take is £30 per share.

Just thinking, if interest rates come down, can asos refinance their debt they have with Elliot currently sitting at 11%?