Member Info for ryanf

Imo, price action is nothing more than a gap fill following results. Expect to continue higher from here.

Wild tiger, why did your AI model tell you to sell S4 Capital right before it went up 30%?

I'd feel robbed if my shares were taken away at £1.41.

Been watching Capita for a long time (years) but never did enough research to pull the trigger. Now at all time lows I did some, and noted a few things:

New CEO.

High net debt.

Breakeven FCF only in 2025.

PE of about 13 using EPS.

Some disposals came through too late for FY23 so will be allowed for in FY24.

This is what I observed in the financials. Watched the webcast with the new CEO, seems switched on and prepared to use outsourced technology to make the company more efficient.

Can those who have a lot of knowledge of the business give the investment case as to why they think the company will turn around, and what are the risks?

GoCPI, it was seeing your username from S4 that made me revisit researching Capita :)

I too feel sorry for everyone who sold, except MildTiger, absolute prat.

I'm amazed the big whale, MildTiger's trade didn't have more of an impact to the SP tbh...

Doubled my holding yesterday at 38p. Results weren't even that bad given the market cap, it was a stop loss hunt. Has to go higher from here.

Doesn't today's price action show how the market rewards cash generation and not revenue growth in this macro environment? Fair play Jose, I like the turnaround story and despite the challenging conditions you're pulling it off. All it takes is cost of living and interest rates to reduce and we'll be back to growth, but this time with Jose at the helm, I believe he'll achieve growth in a sensible way. He won't want to have to turnaround asos again.

Headline of 18% rev decline is horrendous. But looking under the hood, the FCF graph paints a much better picture. Net debt was the main reason why I thought there was serious risk of the business going bankrupt. This shows Jose is focused on cash generation rather than revenue, with the plan to grow revenue again in 2025.

I've seen it on their website, not so many clothes heavily discounted, which I'm glad to see. Would prefer to be lower revenue, high cash generating business given their issues with margin in recent years.

Crafty, how do you expect to list Ingenuity in the US if the current market value of said division is zero/negative?

OSG, a "strategic partnership" could take many forms. One way I'm thinking of is, yes issue of more shares in THG to be issued to the partner, but for THG to be issued shares of equal value in the partner company. Then as the two company's work together, they grow and create value faster than they could do on their own?

The SP would re-rate just on the news given a better outlook. Need to make sure the partner is the right one though.

We shouldn't need to lose as shareholders, so long as Matt gets a good deal.

Posting at 2.30am GTC, size of your short causing you to lose sleep?

Ste2k, my source the multiples are based on global data :)

Ps it's not true to say that US valuations are double the UK even from your own source, in fact, your source suggests that US Consumer Discretionary valuations are the same as the UK and for Information Technology the UK has higher valuations.

Again Ste2k, what is your source? You're just plucking numbers out with no backing source of information.

Amers, you're thinking too rigidly, the market can ascribe a higher or lower valuation based a range of possible outcomes, and I think most of us here believe it is at the lower end. It can quite easily turn for no apparently reason (I.e. based on sentiment alone).

Ste2k, what is your source for coming up with that calculation?

My source: https://www.equidam.com/ebitda-multiples-trbc-industries/

Yes Ste2k, ongoing EBITDA of say, £150m-£200m (£161m achieved in 2021), using an industry EBITDA multiple for e-commerce and marketplace services of about 19x is £2.8bn-£3.8bn valuation = £2.15-£2.92 per share.

Probably £2.50-£3.00 if MM can either:

Pull off Ingenuity, and do as he said, bring in high GMV clients (not yet happened).

Or stop funnelling cash to it, start to grow the other divisions again and grow profits.

No point speculating about what MildTiger is doing, he'll be sure to post it here as soon as he makes a trade.

Don't know whether it's coincidence but saw Halfords had a similar spike about an hour after THG. Obviously we've had Currys as well this week so could there be a flurry of purchasing/takeovers by the big players for UK retail companies in Q1 like someone posted here a few weeks ago?

Wildtiger you're dense. You supposedly play with hundreds of thousands yet you only take profit for a couple of %. You could play with a lot less and take a longer term view and make just as much profit (or probable losses in your case).