Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Bermuda, Moonparty,
Many thanks for the response and clarification.
Even so, regardless of whether success is 85% or 70%, where does the 90% confidence come from?
My job involves working with probabilities. To achieve a 90% confidence level (assuming a normal distribution), you would need 1.28 standard deviations. But deviation from what. I guess if we had the %responses for each individual patient in the 13 measured to date, we could work out the standard deviation and apply 1.28 times this to the arithmetic mean. We could then classify the results and work out the numbers for complete response and partial response and see if this is over 70%.
But I don't think we are privy to enough data to see how 90% confidence was arrived at.
Violin,
Yes, that would make sense. It says 27 enrolled and 24 dosed. So 3 enrolled but not dosed.
I must admit, I struggled to make some of the numbers add up.
The other puzzle for me is the assertion that there is a 90% chance that the 85% ORR in the small sample of 11/13 will be repeated in the full 43. Whilst there is grounds for optimism there is no guarantee that these results will be repeated. If the 85% IS repeated in the 24/27, then the chances of repeating in the 43 will improve. But how the 90% figure is arrived at I have no idea.
I'm afraid Paul is quite right. If you pump $600m dollars into a company it is only worth that amount on the company valuation so long as you don't spend any of it. This can't be the case with Scancell who have far greater cash needs than they have. $600m is a drop in the ocean.
The only time revenue has a multiplier as far as valuation goes, is where that revenue stream is forecast to be maintained year on year. This Genmab is a one off apart from a single digit royalty. Maybe this will be worth $600 per year eventually.
"Fair enough RR. I just don't see Redmile/Vulpes accepting an offer that low IMO."
Why not? They would have exactly the same decision- certain 50p now or a possible £2 in x years.
Redmile don't have a controlling interest and Vulpes average is around 7.5p so 50p might be tempting.
Morning Chester,
"This is an eternal debate between those who are optimistic and confident that Scancell’s science is going to be a new breakthrough in the treatment of cancers and those that see the very real possibility that the road ahead is populated with ‘what if’s’ and ‘maybe’s’. "
It's interesting that you don't say "optimistic" vs "pessimistic". It's an important point because I believe anyone who has put their hard earned cash into this Must have a degree of optimism that it will ultimately be successful.
The difference is unbridled optimism based on blind faith versus tempered optimism based on facts.
WTP,
"Isnt the genmab deal worth £600m+ alone assuming all goes well? "
True, but that potential revenue will be over the next five years or so. So whilst an mcap of £4B is possible, it's not guaranteed, it won't be next week and the amount of dilution required is unknown.
We all have different personal circumstances and investment goals. If I had the choice of a guaranteed 50p next week versus a chance of £2.40 in 5 years, I'd go for the 50p. That's not because I don't think £2.40 is achievable but simply because my personal circumstances mean the money would be more use earlier rather than later. Plus the fact I've already held for 12 years!
Unfortunately the important investment considerations of risk, time and funding seem to be glossed over on these boards.
Morning TF, Moonparty
Hope you are well?
Interesting discussion. Do you know the original source of Inan's post? It doesn't seem to be from a Trinity Delta report.
Just a bit of a reality check.....
The Mcap of Scancell today is £89M (929M shares @ 9.6p)
If we look at the TD latest forecast from the January update they value SCLP at £304m (33p/share, 25.7p/share once Redmile have redeemed their loan notes)
If you take the TD formula and replace there percentages of success with 100% across all platforms you get an Mcap of £4.8B - so yes, your $6B is not that far off!
But to do that misses the point - you have to factor in risk. No one is going to give you odds of 10:1 on a one horse race are they. And even betting on a horse in a one horse race is not entirely without risk - it could pull up or fall.
I know there are lunatics around who still spout the "no risk" mantra but that is just not true of this or any investment.
The other fallacy comes when you try to convery Mcap to share price. Given the amount of time and resources required to get all the platforms manufactured, tested, approved, and marketed who can say how many new shares will need to be issued? Of course, that will depend on the issue price and how much this can be offset by sales or licence revenue.
So while a £4.8B mcap may look like £4.05 per share with 1.185M in issue, it is probable that this won't be the case. If another billion share needed to be issued, the price per share would "only" be £2.40.
So the TD analysis with their conservative valuations give me some comfort that my holding is really worth 30p/share right now and who knows, could make a couple of quid in the next 8 years. There's also the chance of an early bid. So possibly 50p in a shorted time frame?
ATB. AIMHO
Cleaner,
The article got truncated in your post. Here's a link....
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/needle-hay-stack-jeroen-wissink-ateke/
As you say, worth a read.
You can buy a hat that says "one size fits all" this means it fits different shape and size heads, not that you could wear it as a pair of pants.
So I'd say "universal" applies to the population it treats and not to cancer types.
All IMO so if you want to wear your hat as pants feel free to do so!
TF, Burble,
Like you, I have been invested for many years (since July 2012)
However I disagree with "we're waiting for something transformative to happen" statement.
There have been a number of transformative events, just that none of them have resulted in a permanent transformation in the share price.
Violin,
“ .I can't understand why it wouldn't get snapped up by a major”
You have asked this question many times and people have told you exactly why.
1) current shareholders wouldn’t accept a low price
2) big pharma won’t pay a premium price until there is reduction in risk.
The latter will only happen when there is more trial data and progress.
It really is as simple as that.
Empty, I'm not sure about "clearly" but it was certainly one of the three possibilities I posted on the other channel earlier.
1. In the spotlight as in "prime time TV"
2. As in "priming" the immune system
3. Becoming the primary or first line of treatment.
I think it could be any or all of the above. Perhaps this will become apparent in the presentation?
Dracula,
" I thought Big Pharmas would be all over Sclp with the amount of very good progress they have made In the last two years."
This has been explained numerous time on this board and by the Chairman JMC.
Pharma have loads of money. They would much rather pay £4 for a near certainty than a "cheap" price for a high risk investment. So what's "cheap"? If they could buy for 11p they probably would but (as again been debated many times here) that's simply not going to happen.
You do highlight the point that the definition of "cheap" is relative to expectation. When I first invested in 2012 (at 13p), my expectation was £3.20. Today, with 4 times as many share in issue, my expectation is 80p. Anything below this is "cheap". For those who had an inflated expectation in 2012 and have failed to factor in dilution, anything under £8 will be cheap.
The term "cheap buyout" keeps popping up without actually defining what "cheap" means.
As many have already stated there is absolutely no chance of a buyout at the current share price (11p) which has been described as "derisory" by our second largest shareholder.
The share has been valued at nearly three times that (30p) by Trinity Delta. This takes into account the likelihood of success (risk) and when returns will be materialised (time). Both of these have been on the Conservative side. Any bid would HAVE to be at a premium to current value (not price). A 50% premium wouldn't be unreasonable (45p). Even that may be considered cheap by Redmile, Vulpes and some private investors.
So to those worried that Scancell are vulnerable to a takeover I'd say they are but a a price most shareholders would be happy with, certainly not 11p!
Bob,
"They have Immunobody at 5 to 10% success. I think it should be a bitt higher than that!!! "
Fwiw , so do I. But therein lies the problem - it's anyone's guess. Hopefully the opportunity to buy at 11p will pay dividends when it reaches 100%. The risk takers will be rewarded.