Member Info for RS2002

It’s really disheartening to read that some bottled out of Cineworld. There was an opportunity to drive your average down a few weeks ago, when this hit 16-17p. I used that opportunity to drive my average down to 35p.

Many invested in Cineworld because it was a business model that works and despite modest profit margins, was ultimately profitable, pre-covid. It’s the the worst hit in leisure given the scale of their business in the US, but it is ripe for recovery on the basis we can see to March 2021. I don’t have a crystal ball, but with vaccines tracking Q4 2020/Q1 2021, many invested aware of the risks and the efforts to drive down cash burn and see out this virus to a gradual recovery. I see this in Q1 2021 as we see this “spike” but importantly the mortality remains low suggesting this is getting weaker and/or herd immunity is coming and the most at risk groups have taken measures to keep safe. Cinema is about the peak demographic of usher 45s and mostly appealing to teenagers and young adults. They won’t be held back. They just need content and we are faced in this chicken and egg situation where studios are being risk averse. This will pass. Content awaits 2021 and with that is audiences ready to view.

What perplexes me as an investor is that Cineworld isn’t the only play in recovery stocks, but it is the THE recovery play amongst its peers. Investors should have a balanced portfolio, don’t put all your eggs in one basket but at this share price it warrants a punt even with so much upside (as well as the downside many like to call out).

I too am invested in bus companies in fact three: National Express, Stage Coach and Go ahead. Yes, they are performing better than Cineworld right now, but I’d say the latter two are just at risk as Cineworld given they are domestic players without international operations and lucrative school government contracts. But they still warrant an investment, the same as Cineworld if you possess the risk appetite.

Good to read Mooky is stepping up and calling this out.

There absolutely needs to be an investigation on Governor Cuomo‘s interests and importantly, what he has GAINED on the back of keeping theaters shut. Conjecture, yes, but deliberately keeping them closed when more at risk leisure activities like gyms, casinos and bowling alleys have opened, suggests foul play. A conflict of interest in wooing steaming giants like Amazon and Netflix for state investment? I don’t know but this rightfully calls for an investigation. The CinemaSafe guidelines and protocols have all been implemented successfully across the US. Studios are withholding content so Regal, despite having a positive revenue generation business model, pre-covid, are now on their knees. That is not acceptable.

Yes, this is the downstream impact to crushing cinemas. The reduction in footfall spreads far. Across supply chain, too and this all has huge ramifications on jobs and industry, in turn further damaging the economy.

It’s the reason the government have to be incredibly astute and address the restrictions they have imposed and in turn, must offer support. This isn’t a bail out. It’s about supporting industries and business they have allowed to suffer on their watch. That isn’t to say they are responsible for covid, but when you force a business to close, expect them to absorb the burden and debt without income levels to match outgoings, you have a duty to support.

Expect news to come next week that will advertise Cineworld will be granted additional funding and support. It’s a foregone conclusion.

I don’t believe it will be exclusively CARES relief. That will come but I believe the creditors will afford more flexibility and additional financing. Some may argue, they are simply throwing more money away, I disagree. The analysts have said it themselves; Cineworld is a cash generative business, pre-covid. On this basis, it is accepted that they have a proven working business model resilient to the regurgitated “streaming killed the theater” argument.

Mooky shutting down the majority of the estate removes the threat of destabilising operations being used as play by lenders when negotiating terms and conditions, strengthening his hand. You want to risk closing me down? We have hibernated already. Your move.

So long, Johnht.

Thanks for your input.

I hope you are right about

a) Prediction that we will see 2021 box office return to 80-85%of 2019 admissions
b) Bollywood is an ever increasing genre and that India has seen cinema grow audiences (likely in line with population growth, too) ~10% year on year
c) Cineworld dominate the Bollywood movie listings in the UK representing some 50% of market share with their two predominate cinemas: Feltham and Ilford, London

p.s when you sign out of the johnht account and into the next account, be sure to clear your browser cache and specify to delete cookies, too.

Date on which the threshold was crossed or reached: 06/10/2020
Date on which issuer notified (DD/MM/YYYY): 08/10/2020

So.. They sold too soon.

This is a lag in the reporting.


08/10/2020

If this is the price prior to the US stimulus bill, what will it be upon the confirmation?

The Guardian like Johnht posted stated that Cineworld Feltham and Ilford had a market share of 50% of Bollywood movies in the U.K.

Those are impressive numbers and illustrates the importance of the Cineworld chain for Bollywood cinemagoers.

But you do, John. You even posted a poll you buffoon, asking for strangers to “vote” if you should remain or go. You’ve lost the plot.

No losses for me, Johnht. Across my portfolio I remain up.

The more you post and spam this BB, the lower your credibility. You need to finesse the art of deramping. Try switching your account more, give some usernames a rest for a few days and engage less in circle jerks with the same 3-4 posters, regurgitating the same old news.

Nothing concerning at all.

The government gave a GREEN LIGHT to all business entities to defer their rent. You see they cannot be evicted by landlords for getting behind on rent payments until the end of 2020.

This hasn't spooked the market, because it's old news. Many retailers and big brands even Burger King, refused to pay rent.

The landlords can sue for rent arrears but they won't be getting any movement until next year.

I'd say Mooky timed this well to forfeit payments and go into hibernation until Jan, next year.

The wait it out will stem the tide; firm up liqudidity, allow Cineworld to complete negotiations with lender, see out the "second wave" and assess the market for confidence with positive vaccine news emerging. Of course, all of this will contribute to studios completing their assessment on where they can bring movies forward.

Source: https://www.cityam.com/government-extends-ban-on-commercial-evictions-until-2021/

Abrooking, I've also invested in GYM Group to hedge that investment, come Spring :-)

I'm also invested in Hammersons. The way I see it is they have stakes in Value Retail who own Biscter outlet villages and they are withstanding well, in the case of their Italian village, performing better this year than last year, oddly.

Hammersons has a massive disconnect between their market cap and NAV.

They have a large property portfolio; following a rights issue they have managed to drive their LTV down to 42% and thus, on paper at least, appear to have a property portfolio worth ~£7-8bn.

Now at ~60% of equity owned, would suggest a NAV of £4bn. They have debt and operational costs, yes, but given they have 3.8bn shares in issue and a market cap of ~£670m, they are in desperate need of a price correction and should be reading at 105p. So at 17p, I see them not necessarily hitting that hight, now their shares are diluted (halved) but they are due a price correction.

It's just a shame that Alok Sharma has extended eviction bans and effectively given a green light to retailers to defer their rent.

If we can follow in China's footeps, once the economy picks-up and a recovery is underway, I'm hopeful it will improve.

My average with Hammersons is 17.1p.

I've also looked at N Brown Group, their cash position is only 20m but they turned a profit this year and I beleive they are set to continue seeing growth as they have completed a good digital re-brand/re-design.

They appeal to plus size women and rather a cruel thing to say, given the increase in working from home, I can see this demographic increasing for the short term.

Good thread @ Investroid.

Like you, I'm also invested in aviation as I see the task force and the airport screening being a real game changer to improve confidence and importantly will open up transatlantic flights. A lot of carriers (Jet2, EasyJet) have done mainland Europe but BA is prime for this region of travel.

Rolls, a lot were convinced it would tank to 32p and now many have realised that the discounted options represent good long term value so keen to take a position and take-up the 10 shares for 3. This will see dilution but long term is a good investment and the rumours of BAE take-over/merger is appealing to the market.

I'm also in NEX and First Group - Citi state these are good plays as they provide bus services for schools, therefore better than domestic operators like StageCoach for example.

Stagecoach is one I am interested in but I'm looking for a 36p/37p entry.

Keep some money for Cineworld, I appreciate you want to see finances mitigated but you need to be ready to take a position. Cinema isn't going anywhere and yes other operators exists but you cannot be so dismissive of it's presence in the US.

The government have made it clear, the vaccine won’t be given to anyone under 50. Its initial phased deployment is to those at risk groups. If this source checks out, the rest of mainstream media should pickup on this and run with it.

Agree this will influence lenders as it’s about forecasting right now and this plays an important role in that.

Will cineworld shares be part of his renumeration package? :-)

A lot of disgruntled Disney+ subscribers have “felt” duped that they were gaining something exclusive to RENT with Mulan. To find that for the same money, they don’t need a Disney+ subscription and can own and keep Mulan for the same price.

This will leave a bitter taste in the mouth for many who legitimately purchased a RENTAL to stream and perhaps, validate those who acquired the stream a *cough* alternative way.

Source: https://www.fastcompany.com/90560713/sorry-disney-plus-subscribers-now-anyone-can-buy-mulan-for-the-same-price-you-paid-to-rent-it

In his defence he did cite a source for the rumour and didn’t state fact. But, he’s a day trader and doesn’t pretend not to be. He’s agnostic. Indepthwins on the other hand is a day trader, too only he’s deceptive about it, pretending he’s out to help concerned investors and push them to sell a d exploit immature investors in making rash decisions.

Johnht told me to look both ways before crossing the road.

I agree, there are a lot of considerate folk out there with your best interest at heart.

Expensive action movies like “Wonder Woman” would be much less common on streaming, she said, and audiences would miss out on the experience of watching on a big screen in a large group.

“I don’t think any of us want to live in a world where the only option is to take your kids to watch a movie in your own living room,” she said, “and not have a place to go for a date.”

Mooky has got the attention of Hollywood.