Member Info for RS2002

This was dismissed a few weeks ago.

"Social media users are sharing a false quote attributed to the Democratic presidential candidate, Joe Biden, saying that if he wins the upcoming U.S. presidential election, he will lock down the United States until everyone is vaccinated against COVID-19. Biden has said that if scientists advised him to shut down the country to curb the coronavirus pandemic he would, but he does not think there will be a need for such a nationwide lockdown. He supports opening businesses and schools provided sufficient safety measures are in place."

Source: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-biden-shutdown-vaccine/fact-check-biden-did-not-say-that-if-elected-he-will-lock-down-the-country-until-everyone-is-vaccinated-against-covid-19-idUSKBN2762TF

Really encouraging amongst the positive vaccine developments, testing is being enhanced to permit more freedom to attend venues including cinemas from Jan (1.5 months away).

Source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8940421/The-daily-5-Covid-19-test-result-15-minutes-key-opening-venues.html

Great find.

Echo the others, this is a huge confidence booster and does support the earlier statements, Mooky have about securing debt covenant waivers.

The hibernation, Mooky self initiated wasn’t only ahead of the game but so far aligns with more studios deferring to Q1 next year.

The latest broker rating from HSBC is 300p which gives you a clue where this is heading. Long term value? That will depend on a number of factors and where we are in March, next year. Many are citing that things will return to “normal” around this time. In which case, the current SP represents a significant discount.

I’m inclined to look at the immediate milestone and the biggest is Pfizer advising FDA approval before the close of this month. The question you need to ask yourself is, do you want to be out before this huge announcement? Good luck.

LSE0086 you're clearly an excited investor; nothing wrong with that but I wouldn't put such big claims like 220p up.
Instread watch for the remaining milestones in the investor diary.

- Pfizer FDA submission week commencing 16/11
- Pfizer FDA approval week commencing 30/11

AstraZeneca were due to have their Phase 3 data in September so they are very behind, they haven't advertised a revised date but the expectation is this could come any day now. It could be tomorrow for all we know.

The market is becoming very bullish. Good luck.

We have already heard from Fauci in the US giving his full support of Pfizer's vaccine but just now, UK Professor Van Tam has stated he would happily have his mother take the vaccine.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-professor-jonathan-van-tam-uses-mum-test-to-reassure-britons-over-vaccine-safety-12129815

Keep in mind the seasonal flu has an efficacy rate of 40-50%, so when Pfizer dropped the bombshell their vaccine was 90% effective it has really shocked the market.

I'm looking forward to Monday 16th November, this is the timeline (3rd week Nov) that Pfizer gave when they stated they would apply for FDA approval.

Once this is done and retrieved, I believe we will see a price surge across recovery plays like we haven't seen before.

Good luck, holders.

Source: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-professor-jonathan-van-tam-uses-mum-test-to-reassure-britons-over-vaccine-safety-12129815

A huge confidence booster and as clear a signal as you can expect that the FDA will be fast tracking this vaccine for approval.

The earlier timeline shared by Pfizer was the 3rd week of November; week commencing 16/11, which is next Monday.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/2020/11/10/i-trust-pfizer-fauci-says-he-would-take-coronavirus-vaccine-upon-fda-approval/

Strong the obvious.

24 Sep 2020 + 12 months = 24 Sep 2021

CARES Act to support Cineworld to the tune of $200m.

This would then bump up finances between April - June 2021, 3 months before the tap run dry.

Now as yourself, given the developments in vaccine and the claims from government ministers that things will be back to normal come spring, that is a healthy buffer when forecasting ahead.

Cineworld is THE recovery play and I won’t predict or come up with bogus, finger in the air estimates what I will say is the business model works. It isn’t a business that was reporting losses year after year like some. No, this reported profit year on year. 2021 has an enormous backlog of movies and given we can expect Oxford/AstraZeneca to share their data in the next week or so, I believe the recovery is still in play.

It is great this BB isn’t available during trading hours.
This prevents false statements from skewing investors. From an RNS, as follows.

Date: 24 Sept 2020

“ The Group's forecasts and projections, taking account of reasonably possible changes in trading performance, show that the Group should be ABLE TO OPERATE WITHIN THE LEVEL OF ITS CURRENT FACILITIES FOR AT LEAST 12 MONTHS from the approval date of these interim consolidated financial statements”

This sufficiently put to bed, the earlier ESTIMATES that liquidity would run dry by Nov/Dec 2020 as Fitch assumed.

So, point 7 remains true and as others have said, Mooky (CEO) made clear, there is no liquidity crisis.

Source: https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/cineworldplc1/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=655&newsid=1418344

Thanks, Moola. No hard feelings, Ash.

Following the No 10 press conference this evening, Professor Van-Tam joined Boris and the message was very encouraging. I particularly liked Van-Tam's goalkeeper analogy. This bodes well for more vaccines and with 10m doses available before Christmas, this year, the market is really going to respond well to this news, tomorrow.

This is a defining moment. Buckle in and enjoy the ride, up.

I'm really pleased to see global markets recovery.

Things to keep in mind in my opinion?

1. Negotiations will strengthen with lenders, given the vaccine news
2. Global sentiment will see Cineworld enjoy a rally for the balance of this week
3. PJT partners who are currently assisting Cineworld have done some great work for Chile's Latam airlines. DYOR on this You will see they faced Chapter 11 bankruptcy; managed to get a new bond raised and restructure.
4. Cineplex, the very same cinema group that breached multiple terms as part of the Cineworld merger which was withdrawn, have also faced liquidity concerns. They were able to get a new convertible debenture/bond drawn-up. Why is this significant? They didn't have to go through rights issue/dilution. They agreed to write-up a new bond that could "convert" into shares in the future. This means the lender has the ability to convert the bond/loan to shares in the future. This is an advantageous situation for a lender and I can see Cineworld establishing the same and escaping share dilution.
5. Studios remain stead-fast to maintain theatrical release for 2021.
6. Leisure and aviation were the most hit and naturally will attract the most interest.
7. Cineworld advised in their H1 result update they had sufficient liquidity to perform as-is to September 2021, given they have hibernated early I would imagine their cash burn has reduced much more and could extend this to December 2021.
8. Furlough extended in the UK, 80% of wages covered for non-zero hour contract staff.
9. CARES Act has pledged $200M to Cineworld due Q1-Q2 2021

In short:

a) Sufficient liquidity to Q2 2021 as-is
b) PJT have done some great work with Latam airlines - they are also supporting Cineworld
c) US CARES act prepared to support Cineworld to the tune of $200m
d) New convertible bond is an option that can be drawn up a la Cineplex and AVOID rights issue/share dilution
e) 10s of big blockbuster movies for 2021
f) The fear of missing out is strong with Cineworld - expect much gathered interest

Good luck and make the decision right for your (balanced) portfolio.

For those jobs that remain, the government is extending furlough support of 80% to March 2020.

Don't forget, Drfity that the US Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act will look to issue a further payment to Cineworld, too. My understanding is $200m is nominated for Cineworld according to Fitch and this could very possibly come earlier (late Q4 this year).

Still remain invested but as others have posted, there isn't really much to report/discuss at this time.

1. Cineworld were ahead of the game going into hibernation
2. The majority of movies remain set for March/April 2021 which is convenient given furlough in the UK has been extended
3. Election outcome awaits us soon and with that a potential **** in majority across senate, given the house of reps have it to the Democrats. Perhaps this will alleviate the blocker in the stimulus we are all expecting after
4. Mooky has re-iterated that Cineworld have sufficient liquidity to September 2021, now we can assume to December 2021, given the earlier hibernation
5. Debt waiver hasn't been disclosed and the market awaits this
6. Anything else is just conjecture

I am going to assume a new convertible debenture will come out that will give the lender an opportunity to convert the bond to shares in the future when the SP recovers. You don’t have to look too far to see that Cineplex did something similar.

I also find it ironic that our resident de-ramper, IDW is citing I post old data when he would regurgitate old YouTube videos about Cineworld analysis (pre-Covid and pre-Cineplex takeover cancellation). Just noise and best ignored.

Good luck, holders as we await actual news.

The fact he was convinced a FTSE 250 U.K. registered company like Cineworld could be implicated in a US Chapter 11 Bankruptcy, should tell you, he’s small time and clueless.

Still, he’s not as bad as Ashstash84 who always starts a nonsensical thread with “I’m a holder but this is going to crash” or the proverbial “lol” to his own rhetorical question.

Both posters are diploma holders of clown school.

Winni, I take onboard your point however, consider that Tullow's debt maturity isn't until November 2024 so it won't be using those proceeds to pay off all the debt early. Unless, Winni, you have seen otherwise? In which case, post it up please.

Also using the house analogy, even mortgaged, appreciate that Tullow isn't a residential entity that remains static, rather a commerical entity. It is still set about to produce revenue through oil production and this will carry on, and importantly maintain profit when Brent remains above $40/barel.

It's a shame that the US was found to have some stockpiles which triggered the sell-off of Brent yesterday, but it is recovering and historically, as we approach winter, oil demand will grow and I believe in turn we will see Brent increase in price and in Tullow will join that increase.

I'm also banking on our transport secretary, Shapps coming good on a change to aviation/commerical flight passenger testing from December. If we can see a reduction in quarantine from 2 weeks to 1, and then couple this with the 3 milestones for Pfizer (27/10 - Phase 3 Data, 16/11 - EUA, 15/12 - FDA approvals), we are well placed for a good recovery.

Good post, Latpulldown.

The marketcap and NAV is incredibly disconnected.

Market Capitalisation: £309.45 million
Shares In Issue: 1,406.58 million
Share Price: 22p

Market Capitalisation post Ugandan asset sale: £747.75 million (£309.45m + £438.3m)
Shares In Issue: 1,406.58 million
Share Price: 53p

The above doesn't account for revenues just assets vs mcap.

Just saw on Bloomberg. Excellent news. Expect to see the rally continue, tomorrow.

Virtually all business/commercial insurance has legal cover.

If you read between the lines you can see see the landlord is really attempting to pursue this in vain for the benefit of sharedholders, to demonstrate them being pragmatic.

It's been cited before, Alok Sharma the Business secretary has given a greenlight to tenants to go into rent arrears as there is an eviction order until the end of this year and perhaps beyond given the slow pace of recovery we are seeing.

Philomena Harrison is a very accomplished barrister. Chambers U.K. state she is a highly respected specialist property litigator, who regularly appears in the High Court in cases for investors, banks and commercial landlords and tenants.

She stated that the lease documents cited “if the permitted use of the premises by the tenant under the lease were to become illegal due to a public health emergency then the obligation to pay rent otherwise due under the lease would be suspended and cease to be payable for that period.”

Cineworld appear to be in good hands and this will be a really significant win for Cineworld as it will be referenced for other similar litigation cases.