Member Info for RS2002

@investroid

They do give a sh*t and this is evident given

a) Studios did NOT default 2020 movies to streaming
b) WB is being cautious about 2021 given their huge catalogue

“This hybrid exhibition model enables us to best support our films, creative partners and moviegoing in general throughout 2021,” said Toby Emmerich, Chairman, Warner Bros. Pictures Group. “We have a fantastic, wide ranging slate of titles from talented and visionary filmmakers next year, and we’re excited to be able get these movies in front of audiences around the world. And, as always, we’ll support all of our releases with innovative and robust marketing campaigns for their THEATRICAL DEBUTS, while highlighting this unique opportunity to see our films domestically via HBO Max as well.”

As I said, the cinema is a huge advertisement board for the movie, for the brands and the for merchandise/franchise it props up.

WB have already made it clear this is a 12 month plan to see out 2021, we can only speculate on returns but many are saying WW84 will incur a loss on 25 Dec when it streams as well. I suspect WB will look to recend this strategy of WW84 doesn't capture the PVOD numbers or HBO Max numbers it expects.

Disney is working at £5/month and is making a loss. THey couldn't afford to stream Mulan without asking for £30/up front which was laughed at.

I cannot see how MULTI BILLION budget movies can be covered at a cost of $15/month

@Investroid

They absolutely have leverage.

The cinema goes beyond just showcasing the movie it acts as a giant advertising board which many will know supports brand recognition and merchandise. Disney is well know for this as their Frozen toys and bed linen likely adorn most childrens bedrooms.

Let's not re-visit conversations around box office takings as they have been done to death - it mitigates piracy and is a valuable source that studios rely on internationally.

This is the right step and I am expecting some commentary from Mooky, CEO Cineworld with his thoughts on this and likely the update on his conversations with WB, too.

Remember, WB was silent but assured investors and newstreams that things were under control.

Adam Aron, CEO, AMC

"We will do all in our power to ensure that Warner does not do so at our expense. We will aggressively pursue economic terms that preserve our business."

"We have already commenced an immediate and urgent dialogue with the leadership of Warner on this subject."

It seems AMC CEO, Adam Aron is pushing back at WB. They earlier agreed an EXCEPTION for WW84, they are not in support of the entire 2021 catalogue going streaming as well.

This is really encouraging as it suggests as others have stated before, a potential pact being made between multiplex giants which will include Cineworld/Regal to

a) Deny content in their theaters
b) Agree favourable terms which could see passive income beyond the Unlimited/subscription models many operate with.

In short, this could be the final straw for cinemas operators to form a union of some sort to define terms that align to all their best interests.

This may explain why the SP is recovering.

Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55180055

I know for a fact Gordon Ramsey isn't attempting to block the sale of microwave ovens.

Heading to 64p

I take away the following:

1. WB are propsing a 12 month strategy to dual release on premium streaming but ALSO do the theatrical release as well
2. WB will require backing from cinema groups or offer them something lucrative - we have yet to read about this and what the cinema multiplexes will demand
3. WB are well capable of recending this strategy IF the recovery is better than expected given the multiple vaccines in play
4. The target audience is under 40s with 15-24 being the peak demographic their viewing habits could have them at home playing video games or streaming as it is - they don't they go out with their friends, partner and colleagues to enjoy a night out
5. The primary concern for Cineworld was liqudidity which is now averted
6. The current SP of 61p represents a great bargain considering this recovered to 94-102p on the last occasion the finances were filled, granted the theatrical window wasn't modified then
7. Many will take up UNLIMITED membership which means they play a flat fee a month and enjoy the big screen which is a lot more lucrative than spending £20/movie on their tv with mum, dad and their siblings squabling in the background

Once the FDA issue their approvals, next week, recovery plays will surge 20% and Cineworld will be no stranger to that.

On this basis, Cineworld is still well oversold.

Seems investors are picking up cheap shares with many securing 59p as the bottom.

It’s a 1 year plan. I think it’s good. It will hopefully go some way to put to bed the tired argument over streaming vs theatrical for takings.

Remember Cinema going is beyond the content it’s the occasion, company and time away from the home.

We also need to appreciate the moving times for studios to reclaim losses incurred as well during 2020.

If the model doesn’t work, they will move to an exclusive theatrical model.

68p was the previous resistance and this has been broken now.

We have seen Cineworld exhibit similar breakthroughs before.

Previous movement in just FOUR (4) trading days

22 May 2020 = 58p - broken
26 May 2020 = 69p - broken
27 May 2020 = 77p - next resistance
28 May 2020 = 102p intra-day high

Sorry, Jawad. You should have closed that short when we warned you to.

“ 90 per cent of Group revenues are secured through contracts with no revenue risk from changes in passenger demand”

Source: https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/go-ahead1/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=64&newsid=1433457

“ This vaccine is going to be a logistical nightmare what with having to be stored at -70 degrees.”

I’m sure you’re aware that it can be removed from -70c and then stored in regular refrigeration for a period of 5-7 days at 5-8c.

This is beyond a first step, the U.K. government will set about to provide to the most vulnerable and the highest mortality has unfortunately been within care homes. A logistics operation to deploy medical staff akin to a blood collection campaign can be employed and the government will work out the finer points.

What I know is that vaccines will commence from next week and they are en route from Belgium as you read this comment.

Expect further media coverage when the batches arrive, tomorrow and the usual media fanfare which will feed the share price and all other recovery plays, too.

The FDA meeting is set for the 10th but there was some news, yesterday about White House officials pushing as to why the emergency approval is dragging.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/01/covid-white-house-summons-fda-chief-to-discuss-why-agency-isnt-moving-faster-on-vaccine.html

Investors need to keep in mind that the US is 75% of Cineworld audience.
Once FDA approval lands which could land any day now, will in my opinion really catapult global markets.

This news, today is just one of the many jigsaw pieces that will see this share price recover strong.

I'm really pleased with the progress to date, I'm 88% up on Cineworld and this has plenty more to go.

The RNS already came out, IDW

Source: https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/cineworldplc1/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=655&newsid=1430548

We have seen Cineworld recovery in as little as 5 days.

22 May 2020 = 58p
26 May 2020 = 69p close
27 May 2020 = 77p close
28 May 2020 = 102p intra-day high

@IDW
You said Cineworld wouldn't secure liqudidity and were facing collapse. That they wouldn't get debt convenant waivers and that their approach to close AHEAD of peers was foolish and costly. I guess they proved you wrong and the market is appropriately reflecting this in the share price when it rose from1 7p to now 61p (250% increase).

I'm glad you brought up this example @IDW

It reveals that lenders are CAUTIOUS about lending to retail giants like Arcadia because they see the business model dwindling.

Cinemas on the other hand provide an irreplaceable experience, so much so that MULTIPLE lenders/funds were almost fighting with one another to offer Cineworld more money to see them through this FINAL stage of the pandemic.

You see, with multiple vaccines, a huge catalogue of movies awaiting 2021, cinemas are expecting to see very LUCRATIVE returns and a return to profit.

You have confessed before that you are a day-trader, you got in @19p and sold at 28p if I recall.

I bought at all the dips even 17p and I hold an average of 35p and a healthy number of shares.

I'm waiting to see this go 140-150p which I see entirely achievable in March, next year. It will be rise each day as the sentiment builds but also the fundamentals become more apparent to investors.

Keep holding investors and ignore the noise from those with an agenda to talk it down.

Cineworld have been shorted before and saw it through, they will again.