Member Info for RS2002

Like other have said, cineworld makes 75% of its revenue from the US. Biden, president elect has not only take the vaccine on live television, he has pledged 100m vaccines in 100 days, commencing 24 June which means by the end of April, the at risk groups will be inoculated. This is the very same time, Cineworld is proposing to reopen, so I believe we will see regular updates from the US on how they progress their vaccination programme and accordingly, we will see recovery on the way to this milestone.

I remain invested but respect the positions of those who don’t want to see out this recovery.

Keep in mind the stimulus is multi part offering. The initial relief will be smaller but it will suggest the second to be higher into the new year. I expect Trump will tweet this evening after hours to support the current bill and push for a second larger offering. The cynic inside me believes he does this deliberately to manipulate the market and is profiteering with his cronies with such “late revelations”

Expect a partial recovery today as the market continues to correct over the earlier over reaction.

The new strain of Covid-19 that emerged in the U.K. probably isn’t different enough from earlier ones to elude Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE’s vaccine, Europe’s health regulator said.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-21/pfizer-biontech-vaccine-likely-beats-new-covid-strain-ema-says

Expect a partial recovery today as the market continues to correct over the earlier over reaction.

The new strain of Covid-19 that emerged in the U.K. probably isn’t different enough from earlier ones to elude Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE’s vaccine, Europe’s health regulator said.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-21/pfizer-biontech-vaccine-likely-beats-new-covid-strain-ema-says

How naive to assume an earlier loss during the beginning of the lockdown where vaccines were still in phase 1, will be the same as multiple vaccines are now approved for general use.

If you want to look ahead to June 2022, 18 months and form a prediction, that could go either way.

What savvy investors do know is the current SP is 70% discounted and for good reason. Residual risk and patiently awaits 100m vaccinations in 100 days, so but the end of Q1 2021, the same time Cineworld/Regal proposes to open, 100m of which 35m make up over 70s in the US will be vaccinated and the need to introduce such a stranglehold on leisure and hospitality should be lifted. Time will tell.

As others have said, your IDW account used by your peers is simply regurgitating the same tired responses.

There is no immediate liquidity crisis and Cineworld have acted diligently closing ahead of lockdowns.

This is a waiting game and IMO, as someone who holds a 35p average, is THE RECOVERY play.

The US markets and where Cineworld mostly operate, will react positively that the Democrats and Republicans have seemingly resolved a deadlock that was otherwise hindering the much needed stimulus.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/20/republican-democrats-reach-compromise-over-covid-19-stimulus-package.html

All viruses adapt but the science is demonstrating that it is not showing reliance to vaccination nor is it causing more mortality. If anything it is a convenient new stream to push for more aggressive vaccine uptake.

The bottom line is this stock is significantly discounted because of residual risk. It is 62p compared to 220p at the start of the year prior to covid hitting not just Cineworld, but the entire hospitality and leisure sector. That is a 70% discount on the share price.

It has introduced a number of mitigates to the overall risk, but looking at the risk vs reward even a novice can see, with 3 western vaccines available (appreciating AstraZeneca will arrive 28/12), milestones of 100m vaccinations in the US before the end of Q1 2021, the same time, Cineworld is proposing to reopen, the share is a great staple to a balanced portfolio.

What is pathetic is that despite the financials and liquidity crisis being alleviated, the IDW username, likely shared amongst half a dozen associates at a shorting fund, repeatedly bleat on what could have happen had this additional liquidity and importantly, covenant waivers not been afforded. It’s almost akin to someone shouting at a mountaineer once he or she has finished climbing Everest that they could have failed and fallen from great heights. Completely past tense and not paying attention to the fact that the summit was reached.

Perhaps, that is a grandiose analogy given Cineworld hasn’t reopen and 100m vaccinations on the US hasn’t been hit, but that will come. March/April 21, until then we will continue to post and counter these futile attempts to scare off investors, as sadly some have been weak and sold. Some continued to buy and average down as they recognised the fundamentals and the intrinsic value of movie theaters/cinemas and the multi billion dollar industry that is Hollywood.

As the FDA commissioner says, the US, where Cineworld operate 75% of its estate, is in a much stronger position to combat hospitalisation and mortality, against covid.

“With the availability of two vaccines now for the prevention of COVID-19, the FDA has taken another crucial step in the fight against this global pandemic that is causing vast numbers of hospitalizations and deaths in the United States each day,” said FDA Commissioner Stephen M. Hahn, M.D.

Considerations, concerning Cineworld?

1. Has comfortably alleviated immediate liquidity

2. Continues to negotiate with landlords on rent costs irrespective of the additional liquidity to drive down costs more. Has entertained legal challenges citing lease clauses stipulating government restrictions denying use of premises supports the withhold of rent payments.

3. Maintains a strong portfolio of movies lined up for 2021, irrespective of WB joint streaming 2021 movies, something it has the ability to work with AMC and Cinemark to unionise and object

4. Was ahead of the curve, closing down through Q4 20 and set to open Q1 21, with only 12% of cinemas in the U.K., isn’t concerned with Tier 3/4 shutdowns

5. Is aware that the Biden administration wants to see 100m vaccinated in 100 days from Jan 20, Operation Warp Speed wants to see 24m vaccinated by mid Jan, appreciates that a US population of ~330m comprising 35m over the age of 70, the very demographic who have made up the bulk of covid deaths, recognises that if the US administrations want 100m in 100 days, 35m should be achieved before the end of Q1 2021

6. My favourite, has a very nervous shorter crew that is aware with 2 x vaccines available in the US will likely see the share price surge on Monday and is now peddling what COULD have been instead of what IS, completely defeated with earlier predictions that additional headroom would not be afforded, is now doubling down on deramping, makes for a very nervous time for them and their paymasters.

With an average of 35p, I’m very comfortable with my stake in Cineworld. I’ve had an opportunity to sell at 100% but I’m holding until the end of Q1 21 for the aforementioned reasons.

It’s been approved for emergency use authorisation.

“With the availability of two vaccines now for the prevention of COVID-19, the FDA has taken another crucial step in the fight against this global pandemic that is causing vast numbers of hospitalizations and deaths in the United States each day,” said FDA Commissioner Stephen M. Hahn, M.D.

Source: https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-additional-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-second-covid

1. Excellent liquidity at £80m
2. 73% of rents collected
3. Only £100k exposure to Arcadia group
4. 37 new leases signed, up 7% from prior year
5. Progressing health centre dialogue with NHS - potential vaccination centres?

Source: https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/capital_regional/news/rns/story/wvpq10w

No news for Cineworld?

What an ill-informed comment.

Cineworld is only just beginning to react to all the positive newstream.

1. Film producers and directors possibly involving the Directors Guild (DH) to formally object the intention for AT&T to stream movies on HBO Max at the same time as theatrical release.
Source: https://variety.com/2020/film/news/directors-guild-warner-bros-hbo-max-deal-1234849614/

2. US stimulus deal to be announced today.
Source: https://nypost.com/2020/12/13/bipartisan-908b-covid-19-stimulus-bill-to-be-unveiled-monday/

3. Pfizer vaccine to commence vaccination programme following emergency approval in the US. Trucks containing the first packages of the vaccine are leaving Pfizer's facility in Michigan today with delivery expected on Monday to sites across all 50 states. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/13/coronavirus-live-vaccine-updates.html

Good grief @ Investroid.

I missed your earlier comment.

Have you really attempted to compare the technology MEDIUM changing but the same home experience to that of an experience going out?

That would be akin to saying restaurants would fail because microwaves came about. That pizza take aways fail because Asda sell pizza for £1.

The cassette player at home evolved to CD to MP3 to streaming all at home.

This didn’t stop love concerts or sporting events.

Your comparison is one of Mooky and co replacing 1080p projectors with 4K Laser and stereo sound with Atmos Dolby.

Both have their own market and revenue stream.

These are old conversations about the viability of cinema which have been done to the point of flogging a dead horse.

I appreciate you’ve sold now as you believe this will decline further. I believe the current SP is still hugely disconnected from the big news that vaccines and their approvals are coming through, inoculation programmes are commencing and Brexit and $900BN stimulus packages are coming.

For me, remaining out at this stage and price is far too big a gamble given the fundamentals.

Why stop there. You should also consult random_rushed_alias1234 they can also afford some good investment advice.

Comparing Intu to cineworld is akin to apples and oranges.

Intu had a failing business model in retail and liquidity crisis that wasn’t averted hence it went to a penny stock and collapsed.

Cineworld has reported profits year on year pre covid and has successfully secured liquidity to avert a crisis. This allows it to see itself open in March and hence the relaxed approach.

For me, there is too much good news that awaits.

Hopefully a Brexit deal soon too, but with further vaccine approvals notably the biggest being FDA, next week, this is going to see all recovery stocks boom. Cineworld will join that party.

Going back to the topic in hand, WB are mitigating risk as they will assess how the recovery plays out next year. I’m inclined to believe Mooky who has a long history in cinema exhibition and has so far proven the hardest pessimists wrong when they said he wouldn’t secure funding. I’ll await more news over the next week to see further recovery here.

Good post, Pistachiorich.

Cineworld have responded in an almost nonchalant shrug of the shoulders. This isn’t the response of a nervous exhibitioner.

“The exhibitor also said it believed Warner Bros would reconsider the theatrical window of exclusively and agree to favourable terms once theatres reopen.”

“We believe that at such a time WB will look to reach an agreement about the proper window and terms that will work for both sides,” the spokesperson added.

This really is down to the success of the vaccine rollout. If it ensures the government doesn’t impose further lockdowns, and attendance does the talking, as all investors will want it to, Cineworld believes WB will abandon or alter their strategy. Something or some conversations around this must have happen or Cineworld could be in the process of securing a deal with operators that will see a proposition of royalties paid to support them.

Many have talked about how cinemas need to adapt is this just the next phase?

Agree, this has been said before countless times.

1. TV didn't end cinema
2. Video didn't end cinema
3. Blueday didn't end cinema
4. Streaming is well over a decade old and hasn't end cinema

@investroid

I didn't call you either; I said you call out rampers or de-rampers depending on your position.

Anyway, I agree with you, we should refrain from attacking one another and have a good debate/converse on the merits and negatives.

@Investroid

Let's be honest, your opinion changes more frequently than the wind.

You call out "rampers" when you're trying to get a lower entry and then "de-rampers" when you're back in and hoping to see the share price surge.

Let's call a spade a spade

@Investroid

What you don't realise is WB is offering a teaster to entice HBO Max customers.

They are citing $15/month and JUST FOR 2021, they will bring forward their new releases to dual stream and play in theaters.

The intention is AFTER 2021, WB will either:

a) Revert their HBO MAX to play big blockbusters after theatrical and PVOD release
b) Bump up their subscription costs to $30/month

The problem is

a) Can be achieved via IPTV/Koid FOC
b) Doesn't warrant the outlay when an UNLIMITED membership is cheaper than $30/month where you can see a movie in the glory of an auditorium with the size and sound to match.

I see this as WB hedging their bets on their 2021 releases. They will operate at a loss like Disney+ if they maintain $15/month AND play out theatrical releases at the same time.

Corret @Hosai

"Many are expecting that Wonder Woman 1984 will already lose money, with financial analysts in the know saying that the $200 million DC sequel will need to do 40% more than Tenet‘s current global take of $357.8 million to hit breakeven. “If Wonder Woman 1984 does Tenet numbers, it will lose money,” one industry insider told Deadline recently."

Source: https://deadline.com/2020/12/warner-bros-2021-movie-slate-hbo-max-matrix-4-dune-in-the-heights-1234649760/