The old management had very significant personal shareholdings, but these guys have been very slow to put their hands in their well remunerated pockets to align with retail shareholders. “A big red flag that was”, Yoda might say.
I think everyone realises that they will finally write off the lower levels in the next update. The question is whether they have moved on to production testing the shallows. Their previous glacial pace suggests they may not have. That would not be well received.
Yes, with WTI firming you can feel the impetus for a confrontation with this awful BoD beginning to fade. A real pity. The share price may respond somewhat to an improved climate for oilers but a significant recovery is not possible here without a change of strategy, something that is just not going to happen unless these characters see us coming for their salaries. Ab76 could have made that happen but he chose not to.
Could happen, I suppose, the shareholders do seem quite unbelievably complacent. But how disconnected is the valuation really? As I said before, look at recent annual and interim accounts for a better idea of the profitability and trajectory here and what the market is getting at with the current share price.
Mine
The first mistake you are making is to look at gross figures. Have a look at recent annual and interim accounts for a better idea of the profitability and trajectory here and what the market is getting at with the current share price.
All the best
Ross
He was going great guns and then he just stopped posting.
Carrot13
“I’ll be loading up in the .9s and hopefully a bit lower soon.”
What is it that you see driving the offer down to the .9s or lower?
All the best
Ross
Ikhan1284
“Listen guys there is no deal in this”
What makes you think that?
ZagEgypt - fair play, you called this one pretty well.
ZagEgypt
“I expect no RNS tomorrow or even this week”
Everything is possible on AIM, which is all about momentum and the balance of risk and reward. Momentum can be lost very quickly and there is usually more risk than reward. But how have you come to expect no RNS tomorrow or even this week. What is your thinking there?
All the best
Ross
Ab76
That seems an incredibly naive approach to the present valuation of TRIN. Historical valuations of TRIN’s assets, or any part of them, really are neither here nor there and the amount of additional funds that shareholders have poured into TRIN over time is just a sad testament to the risks of investing in AIM companies. The present valuation of TRIN has to be based the present realities of TRIN. No one is now going to offer what they once might have offered for its assets and almost all the money extracted from shareholders is just gone.
All the best
Ross
PipeDragger
Fair comment.
One part of the problem has arguably been the way in which this BoD has drip fed disappointment to the market. I suspect that on a number of occasions they have known that something was unlikely to pan out but, instead of kitchen sinking it there and then, they have merely alluded to the possibility of a negative outcome, leaving the hopes of the bulls largely intact before being dashed further down the line. This repeated process has badly eroded sentiment here.
I suspect that LC1 is the latest example of this and that the current exercise there will simply see it being written off in a few weeks’ time, when it should have been written off last year. I would defy a permabull like ab76 to contend that we will see meaningful production from LC1. And, of course, if we do not see meaningful production from LC1, it is highly unlikely that Jacobin will ever pay for itself, however long it produces from the shallow zones.
It really is foolish of the BoD not to have kitchen sinked Jacobin last year, so that TRIN’s focus could then be on its (admittedly limited) positives this year. Instead, I strongly suspect that the first meaningful TRIN news of 2024 will be negative LC1 news.
There we go. It did not take much to make you admit the reality of the toxic fiscal regime in Trinidad.
“Obviously there’s no contract mandating that Trinity must invest its SPT windfall, but anyone who thinks that Trinity, having persuaded the government to enact such reforms on the basis that it’ll invest in boosting production, can instead spend the windfall on dividends is delusional. It would be thoroughly dishonest and, since Trinity is dependent upon the government of Trinidad in so many ways, shortsighted. Not only could it result life being made difficult or the reforms being reversed…”.
Cue more misallocations of capital like Jacobin and a shrinking margin of safety, even for value investors. Or get rid of the BoD that collaborates with this fiscal tyranny.
You have still not backed up your statement. We all know that the recent modest tax reforms are intended to incentivise/encourage investment in additional production, but in what sense do they mandate it? Where is “the deal” that obliges TRIN to continue to make mistakes like Jacobin? Surely the TRIN BoD are free to do whatever they decide is in the best interests of their shareholders. There is no “deal”.