Member Info for romaron

A billion there - soon you're talking about real money.

"Battery maker Northvolt has filed for bankruptcy in Sweden, capping the downfall of a company once regarded as Europe’s best hope of competing in an industry dominated by China.

The Swedish industrial start-up, backed by the likes of Volkswagen, Goldman Sachs and BlackRock, said on Wednesday that it had been unable to secure financing to continue and a court-appointed trustee would now sell off its assets.

“This is an incredibly difficult day for everyone at Northvolt. We set out to build something groundbreaking — to drive real change in the battery, EV and wider European industry and accelerate the transition to a green and sustainable future,” said Tom Johnstone, Northvolt’s interim chair.

It marks an ignominious end to a company that took in about $15bn from investors and governments in a technology crucial for electric vehicles where Europe is playing catch-up to Asian countries such as China, Japan and South Korea."

Backed by Goldman and BlackRock apparently. Lucky GB Energy weren't up and running.

I filled the consultation in. Probably a paper exercise that will be ignored for the sake of expediency. I'd say its totally irrelevant but helpful in the sense that they 'consulted'. Consulted and listened to are very different concepts to government.

Thanks for that ProdOpt. None of us can follow everything and I just accepted that Russell Borthwick wouldn't have said it in parliament without it being true. It is the sort of comment that sticks in ones mind when all the other statistics just become a repetitious drone. AB is secretive but I imagine quite forceful in negotiations. David Latin is outspoken but that doesn't always work. Wars are won with big battles but there are a lot of skirmishes and resistances that add to the total. I am in contact with people you probably know better than me and they have blind spots because of the scope. They can't risk engaging with me but I know they appreciate my input and emails are acknowledged and thanks given. They can't join a Union, go to a juststopoil induction or send FOI's as a concerned member of the public; I can and I have. Throw in the other stuff we all pick up and it helps the fight back. I've a background in FX and plumbing/surveying. Eclectic but it all adds up. I'm sure you're doing your bit too.

The O&G industry's survival depends on resistance. The lies and misinformation coming from the ideologs and the scam that is 'climate change' cannot stand up to actual science and evidence.

Here's a sample. I was alive when the Canvey Island flood happened in 1953. It wasn't blamed on 'climate change' then. The population was 13,000. It is now 38,000. The war hadn't long ended and many of the properties were bungalows. Now we have better warnings, better buildings and of course flood insurance. Living near the sea has always carried more risk. I live in High Barnet - perhaps I should take out cover for altitude sickness?

Only a bit of musing ukbb but time will tell. I remember how many times Docklands went from boom to bust. These things can take decades but AB must have personal plans as you say. Not sure about the EPL and TBH there is always a potential silver lining. If they separate O&G we actually have a decent base for oil. We're slim and mean which means our tax rate might drop to 2% on certain fields and trades if the price drops below $71.40 from April 1 2024 so + 2.5% (CPI) so say $73.

I'm more interested in what happens to NZ and Ed Miliband. Hopefully he is removed and National security can be improved by extending the life of the NS. I think we have a very interesting month in front of us.

Important dates and only a week away - https://www.reuters.com/world/british-energy-secretary-visit-china-march-restart-energy-talks-meet-investors-2025-02-28/

"The sources, who were not authorised to speak to media, said Miliband will visit Beijing on March 17-19, which Reuters is reporting for the first time."

Reuters are a rarity among MSM - they can usually be trusted and have the best sources.

Years ago a regular haunt of mine was the area around Bank now known as No. 1 Poultry. Mappin & Webb, Mithras and Deacons – all sadly gone (stories I could tell). It was developed by Peter Palumbo and was his life’s work that took many years to achieve. Patience, vision and contacts were required alongside a driven talent. That for me also applies to Amjad Bseisu, a rare individual.

Has he been building a hub whilst attention has been elsewhere? The flawed Net Zero mission is now crashing and Ed Miliband is in purdah until Labour have worked out how they’re going to do a 180 degree turn without the public smelling the burning rubber and what to do with Ed.

The hub includes Serica, Waldorf, Viaro and possibly Uncle Tom Cobley. It would need indications and guarantees from government future policy to have a decent chance of success. Their London offices are all within walking distance and I’m guessing well-trodden.

All the whizz kids are making calculations that whilst important miss this big picture. No one has mentioned the huge percentage of EnQuest that AB and family own. His Foundation and perhaps a legacy for his son Adnan who is possibly even brighter than his dad and already making a name for himself at Yale also come into the calculations.

The share-holding has in the past been a barrier for some investors and without AB’s support EnQuest wouldn’t be here now. EnQuest are also the biggest company in a potential hub. Go ahead play with the numbers but they have the most employees, widest diversification and the power of VETO (effect of AB’s 12.25%). Many miss the massive reduction in debt that EnQuest have achieved with the support of long term holders and is an achievement in itself. I stick with the oil industry adage – “debt is your friend – explore out of equity, develop out of debt.” Our balance sheet is fine.

The availability of shares in EnQuest is tight. For now it will be retail punters playing imo. AB’s hand is on the tiller and he could bring in an influential partner with his large holding. There are a lot of announcements to come. It will be a roller-coaster.

*“The best business in the world is a well run oil company. The second best business in the world is a badly run oil company.” –John D Rockefeller

We are be in the first category.

Message for all. If you wanted to take a sizeable position in EnQuest where would you go? I don't know of many retail investor sellers and the funds and institutions on the major shareholders list have shown their loyalty and stubbornness too. Certainly at this level or multiples higher.

The free float is miniscule imo. If you want to get aboard EnQuest with a sizeable stake you probably need to cosy up to AB. Palestinians aren't noted for short termism or being shy of a fight.

When these type of events happen it attracts the attention of different funds and private investment. Until a year or so ago you could still say ESG without appearing out of touch and still in touch with different woke genders. If all of a sudden weapon manufacturers have become acceptable how can the anti-fossil fuel movement have any credibility? Especially when renewables are economically suicidal and fossil fuels are indispensable to an army, navy or air force. Drones have their tactical uses but for battlefield wins you need jets and boots on the ground. Try doing that with only renewables!

If (as I suspect) Serica have jumped the gun after a first date people will start to learn to understand EnQuest. Recent communications with IR have expressed an absence of interest from the right pools of capital and investor indifference; this has changed dramatically with these RNSs and US actions threatening the break-up of NATO. It then becomes more a sum of the parts and we can almost guarantee a change for the better with the fiscal conditions for O&G in the UK. If we were a forced seller then 'beggars can't be choosers' applies.

That is not the case. I don't think AB and his team need to be told how to "suck eggs" by us.

Trying to impress my daughter and partner saying I caught ChatGPT out they condescendingly said it "hallucinates" quite often. Kinda fake news.

"In the context of AI like ChatGPT, "hallucinating" means the model generates responses that are factually incorrect or nonsensical, often sounding plausible but ultimately fabricated, which can lead to users relying on inaccurate information. "

Her partner was a Press Officer for a Tory minister so I asked about the "missing Ed". He said if he's been left off the morning rounds and wouldn't meet Unite last Friday in Doncaster because he was 'canvassing' a mile away points to the fact that he needs to be kept away from the media. The proposed trip to China later this month will give the biggest signal.

The neatest summary of gas prices and electricity I've found is this: 90p / therm = 3p / kWh gas = 6p / kWh electric at 50 % efficiency. So 6p in fuel cost and I'm paying 24p. Where's the other 75% going?

Now the cat is out of the bag re: Serica expect more dribbles of information. I'm quite happy that we've got AB and Penny on board. They're a match for anyone. The funny timing of RNS's sounds more like a warning broadside or a drone invaded our space.

HYNs up 100 to 103.50 yesterday and I don't think anything should be read into it. Bond markets imo have a better feel and info around these type of deals and understand structures and tax better than equity traders. To me it looks like they were caught by surprise too. I might have Stockholm syndrome but currently feel only lukewarm towards Serica.

Also - can somebody point me to the "media speculation" that prompted the RNS? Until I hear differently a scenario is that following a leak Serica have said they want to release an RNS. They spoke to EnQuest and eventually agreed a release. It wasn't released at 07:00. I loosely follow SQZ and for me they were short on ideas. I have a feeling that the approach is a tad unwelcome.

If you go by the increase in share price as I type. ENQ + 14.68% and SQZ + 4.37% it suggests that ENQ have been inflated by an offer from a larger company.

This isn't an opportunistic bid from a larger company imo. SQZ had a lottery win when the US gave permission to open up Rhum which had suspended production in 2010 when owned by BP. For me it is a bid from a company that needs scale (as does ENQ) and diversification and is a bit cheeky. We are not distressed and our easily managed debt is not forcing us into a deal. If you want distressed look at TLW where their bonds are trading close to 25%.

I may be totally wrong but the tone of the RNS doesn't ooze enthusiasm from EnQuest.

I wonder if they'll use this to buy out the Iranian Oil Company (UK) 50% holding in Rhum. Would explain some of the delay regarding renewing the OFAC license and a volatile Trump. Maybe the US held a gun to the head of the Iranians?

I'm not even sure that this is the 'transformational deal'.

This is what they came back with. I didn't realise you could challenge a machine. There's hope for us humans still.

You're right to double-check! Let’s go through the conversion again carefully.

We have:

TTF price = €44.93 per MWh

NBP price = 104.70 pence per therm

1 MWh = 29.3071 therms

Exchange rate = 1 EUR = 0.85 GBP (assumed)

Step-by-step conversion:

To convert TTF from €/MWh to pence per therm:

Convert euros to pounds:

€

44.93

×

0.85

=

£

38.19

 per MWh

€44.93×0.85=£38.19 per MWh

Convert pounds to pence:

£

38.19

×

100

=

3

,

819

 pence per MWh

£38.19×100=3,819 pence per MWh

Convert MWh to therms:

3

,

819

 pence per MWh

29.3071

 therms per MWh

=

130.3

 pence per therm

29.3071 therms per MWh

3,819 pence per MWh

​

=130.3 pence per therm

So, the corrected TTF price in pence per therm is 130.3 p/therm, compared to NBP at 104.7 p/therm.

Key Takeaways:

TTF (~130.3 p/therm) is currently higher than NBP (104.7 p/therm) by about 25.6 p/therm.

This means it is more profitable to export UK gas to Europe via interconnectors.

Thanks for catching that! Let me know if you’d like further clarifications.

I'm working on something and asked chatGPT a question with this response which was WRONG:

As of March 7, 2025, the latest available data indicates the following for natural gas futures prices:

UK NBP Natural Gas Futures: The contract for April 2025 was priced at 104.700 pence per therm.

ICE.COM

Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures: The contract for April 2025 was priced at €44.930 per megawatt-hour.

TRADINGVIEW.COM

To compare these prices directly, we need to convert them to the same unit. Using the conversion factor where 1 megawatt-hour (MWh) is approximately equal to 29.3071 therms, and considering an exchange rate of 1 euro = 0.85 pounds sterling:

TTF Price in pence per therm: €44.930/MWh ÷ 29.3071 therms/MWh × 100 pence/pound ÷ 0.85 ≈ 179.2 pence per therm.

This comparison shows that, as of the latest data, the Dutch TTF futures price for April 2025 is approximately 179.2 pence per therm, while the UK NBP futures price for the same period is 104.700 pence per therm. This indicates that the TTF price is higher than the NBP price by about 74.5 pence per therm.

Please note that these figures are based on the latest available data and may have changed since then. For the most current prices, consulting real-time trading platforms or financial news sources is recommended.

I can't get back into it but an advert keeps appearing about renewables from Siemens. It says "you can't run from gas". It then goes on to say that gas is "essential". Bearing in mind GB Energy now has a Chairman and Interim CEO who were both ex Siemens and boast about it.

Good old AI comes up with this:

"Siemens Energy's Position:

Siemens Energy, a global leader in energy technology, uses the slogan "You can't run from gas" to underscore the critical role of gas-fired power plants in a reliable and sustainable energy system.

Energy Resilience:

The slogan suggests that relying solely on renewable energy sources like solar and wind is insufficient without the backup provided by gas-fired power plants.

Transition to Renewables:

Siemens Energy acknowledges the need for a transition to renewable energy sources, but argues that gas-fired power plants are essential for ensuring energy resilience and stability during this transition.

Gas-Fired Power Plants:

Gas-fired power plants can provide baseload power and quickly respond to fluctuations in demand, making them a crucial component of a reliable energy grid.

Siemens Energy's Expertise:

Siemens Energy has expertise in developing and deploying technologies for both gas-fired power plants and renewable energy systems, reflecting its commitment to a balanced and sustainable energy future."

Strange?

The longer they talk the lower it goes - down 14% as I write. Makes no sense at all to me. Is there another explanation?

I'm watching on Zoom. Linda Cook talking. It shows how complicated it all is. Would explain the delay in our announcement. The renewable propaganda is currently on MUTE. We need evidence that pragma is replacing dogma. I'd rather invest in drones than turbine blades. Sitting in front of Russian tanks on the M25 won't stop them.

Some good noises coming out at last.

I wonder how much Celtic FC made in 2024? They made more that Harbour in 2023 according to the Aberdeen Chamber of Commerce.

For anyone invested in Harbour I think you'll be fine. The German investment may well be a massive winner and masterstroke as Europe goes for fossil fuels again. The Germans have proven ability at rearmament.

Good spot Taverham. You can listen from 06.26. They interviewed David Latin the Chairman of Serica. He made a couple of points well.

1. Gas spiked in 2022 and has been at historic levels ever since.

2. 40% of all energy in UK is imported.

3. Between now and 2050 according to the Climate Change Commission (I think he meant Committee as in CCC) we will use 15bn barrels of oil equivalent of which only 4bn will come from the North Sea.

4. Energy produced here will always be better as its not moved halfway across the world with associated transport emissions.

5. Domestic O&G essential for economy and better for the environment than importing it.

6. Brief O&G spike that almost doubled the tax on the NS Industry.

Hi onedb - not that simple. The ESIM threshold requires gas to be below £0.57 per therm and with LNG involved that won't be easy. Oil is $74.21. The ecomentalist Dale Vince talks of a global gas price. Someone should ask him what it is and where do we trade it?

This isn't encouraging https://www.uktaxpolicymap.com/fiscal-policy/energy-profits-levy-and-energy-security-investment-mechanism.aspx

As the EPL doesn't end until 31 March 2030 we could have the built in inflator that is LNG keeping the gas element artificially high while we ignore the cheaper cleaner gas offshore. I'm guessing that lobbying is intense and Labour cannot continue to ignore reality.

*some bad news - I saw Ed Miliband scurrying into No.10 on the news along with other Ministers. He's like a lingering stench

*some good news - BP thought today was a good day to buy 10m shares.