Member Info for romaron

this is about timing. i am not a conspi****** and don't go on any of the channels but if you do have a contact or access feel free. watch this video at https://thehappyheatpumppodcast.buzzsprout.com/2408790/episodes/16454209-are-we-going-to-run-out-of-electricity

at 12:20 bean beanland talks about hot spots and potential problems west of london with heathrow and data centres. very prescient and this was 2 months before the substation fire. i'm left questioning whether this was in the public domain and well known or was beanland privy to some inside information only available within the higher levels of the renewable industry? whatever the answer ed miliband and desnz would certainly have known. were they open about it or were they hiding it?

the timing? well spain and portugal had massive blackouts at 11.30 today and are still struggling to get the lights on in time for the evening ev rush hour and heat pump cooling needs.

Ed's pen friend from California, Gavin Newsom, shares his zeal for renewables and hatred of fossil fuels. An energy crisis is heading California's way which would scupper his ambition to be President of the US. For various reasons the state has to import oil and has unique self-imposed refinery conditions. This from Doomberg:

"It is thus no surprise that Californians pay the highest gasoline prices in the US and suffer significant price shocks when supply runs short. Newsom historically has responded to such episodes by browbeating refiners and ratcheting up regulatory pressure. Such behavior reflects a serious misreading of who holds the leverage: Mere weeks after we flagged the state’s risk, Phillips 66 announced its intent to close its Wilmington refinery—located just outside Los Angeles—by the end of 2025. Two weeks ago, Valero Energy dropped another hammer blow by announcing it will close its Benicia refinery near San Francisco by early 2026:"

Companies can walk away. And California is in an earthquake zone with a remaining refinery sitting on the most dangerous Hayward Fault in N. California which would leave only one refinery in the North if the worst happened.

I see your point Dumbly. Blaming it on EPL is not the direct cause of the price rise but it will have an effect. The earliest is the drying up of investment and companies moving out of the NS. We are simply replacing NG with LNG. That is because NS producers cannot make a profit in the NS. Critical mass is reaching a tipping point. We're arguing about the polish to use on the handrails of the Titanic whilst the EPL Iceberg gets ever closer.

The EPL has been a useful tool for both parties but it is masking the mortal damage it will do to the industry if not rescinded or adapted within a very small window of opportunity.

EPL will and is 'gradually' increasing the price/cost of energy (both oil and gas) in the UK. I'm splitting hairs but EPL does raise domestic prices but not immediately and directly.

What chance has Brenda got of getting her head around this?

Yes - thanks oct23 I'm not brilliant with links.

You're losing me Dumbly? I don't think the point even needs to be about O&G. If a commodity is restricted for whatever reason its price will rise rise if demand remains the same unless another cheaper product makes it redundant. Where does he mention domestic prices? Not really important as driving gas production away from the UK and replacing it with imports WILL increase prices. UK gas producers really have NO option but to continue due to sunk capex costs but Tory and Labour have done everything they can to crater the industry. Maybe he means that pushing us into the arms of LNG WILL raise gas prices because although an element of the electricity prices (around a third) it makes a big difference to those left heating their homes with gas. Businesses have already made decisions about relocating.

The argument about gas setting the price of electricity is complex but basically it's because we haven't solved (and never will imo) the base load/dispatchable requirement for the increased intermittency from renewables. We need to build more mountains like Norway.

In simple terms gas is 6.34 pence per kWh and electricity is 24.86 pence per kWh.

And when the morons throw in nuclear as the solution point out this at 2:00 -

https://www.google.com/search?q=karl+iver+dahl+madsen&rlz=1C1GCEA_enGB1155GB1155&oq=karl+iver+dahl+madsen&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIKCAEQABiABBiiBDIHCAIQABjvBTIKCAMQABiABBiiBDIKCAQQABiABBiiBDIKCAUQABiABBiiBNIBCjEzODc3ajBqMTWoAgywAgHxBUz1xvAAIyIM&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:760653df,vid:XL6mcZONX-s,st:0

not much use if you use pipework or shampoo your hair.

*I am going to a talk tomorrow evening being given by Karl Iver Dahl-Madsen

This short video is essential viewing; especially @ 13:20 where the insanity of environmentalist excess is explained in simple enough terms that even Brenda from Bristol would understand.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1070052/north-sea-oil-and-gas-and-impact-of-the-energy-profits-levy-cavendish-insights-1070052.html

"I do (I think) understand why the government sometimes need to financially assist firms such as the Drax biomass facility in North Yorkshire, which is the UK’s largest green power station. In ‘24 they received £869 million via public subsidies. However my view may change, when I read that the company reported record profits of almost £1.1 billion pounds. So the question is. Why are British households having to pay an average of about £10 extra on their bills. Perhaps it’s the same old story that the shareholders come first, and this needs to change."

National Pensioners Convention

Afraid that the NPC haven't a clue. The renewable shareholders always come first. Paid for out of energy bills and any remaining profits left after the "punishment beatings" handed out to the O&G industry.

1. “I find it sad and ironic that once mighty steel and petrochemical industries of the United Kingdom have been displaced to Asia, where the same products will be produced with higher greenhouse gas emissions, then loaded on a diesel-powered ship back to the United Kingdom. The net result is higher prices and fewer jobs for UK citizens, higher global greenhouse gas emissions, and all of this is a climate policy?”

- Chris Wright, US Energy Secretary

2. "The path to energy transition faces another kind of disruption: the sharp divide in priorities between the developed countries of the Global North and the developing countries of the Global South. Wealthy countries can seek to make climate a top issue. But not developing countries. With per capita incomes of only 5 to 10 per cent that of developed countries, they also have to focus on economic growth, reducing poverty and improving health. Malaysia's prime minister Anwar Ibrahim summed up the divide this way: "the need for transition", he said, must be balanced against the "need to survive", to ensure that our present policies eliminating poverty, in providing education health and basic infrastructure [are not] frustrated because of the dictates of others that do not place adequate consideration on what we have to "face". There is no doubt who he means by the "others".

- Daniel Yergin in The Times yesterday.

Don't worry Anwar - we're leaving the "others" and joining you.

“The fundamental thing here goes to what the British people expect of us,” he said, adding it is to “stick to the mandate on which they elected us”.

It wasn't more expensive electricity.

Excellent Hunbah. The reason they can get away with this is because of religious zealotry. O&G is tainted with "catastrophic climate change" which a relatively small group have manage to get centre stage and it isn't proven. Consensus isn't and never has been science. Ask people if they want world peace and clean air? I can tell you the answer already. We've seen how the masses can be manipulated by religion by turning on the news and watch the death of the Pope. That is how they've been able to get away with it.

Time to tell the British public the cost in energy bills and lost jobs. They can then decide if they want to chip into the collection box.

excellent dumbly. miliband is very clever but he isn't intelligent in all areas and facets of the debate. he has fundamental weaknesses that need to be exploited. the interviewer covers a range of topics and like many there are gaps. miliband is a seasoned pro whose specialist subject if net zero and arguments for. he has rehe****d all these arguments and has the responses and replies at hand. at government committee audits they are more clued up and he will often respond (when he doesn't want to answer) with i'll write to you.

these interviews are full of soundbites and far, far too short. i came across this in the past few days and it has one subject heat pumps and there are 20 videos of around 15 minutes with little repetition.

https://thehappyheatpumppodcast.buzzsprout.com/2408790/episodes

each one is very interesting if you are a nerd like me but not to the general public. they are very illuminating and there is much in them that miliband and his predecessors have got wrong. that is where he'll come unstuck because he is following the wrong path for renewables. of course there are sunk costs and expensive mistakes to take into consideration. that will be a hard spin but let's face it: he's the one left holding the baby. he is doomed.

i will post more but it will take me some time to explain fully.

It is a penal tax on O&G. Miliband is right but doesn't mention that both Labour and Tories raided the profits of the O&G during a temporary spike and left the surcharge (EPL) to hasten the demise of the industry in the UK. The problem isn't with the price of gas; globally it is cheap again and if you build in inflation cheaper than before the Ukraine war. The problem is with the cost of subsidies and grants. He doesn't get pinned in this area.

The affair also exposes the hollowness of Starmer’s tough talk and lofty ambitions to rearm Britain in support of Ukraine’s fight against Russia. A single 155 mm artillery shell contains around 40 kilograms of steel, and Russia is firing tens of thousands of them daily. Meanwhile, the deepening synergy between China and Russia forms a military-industrial bloc of immense scale. A bankrupt nation with crumbling heavy industry isn’t likely to keep either adversary awake at night.

We close with a humble suggestion for Starmer: relieve Miliband of his current duties and put him in charge of British Steel. Not only would it mark one of the greatest addition-by-subtraction trades in British political history, but it would also give Miliband a rare opportunity to grapple with the practical consequences of the very policies he has long espoused.

Alternatively, send him to Birmingham and assign him to trash duty.

Russell Borthwick, chief executive of Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce, said: “There are no windfall profits being made.

“Celtic made more profit than Harbour Energy because the windfall tax stripped revenue.”

He forgot to mention that Aberdeen FC made a loss. If you've got no spare cash you ain't gonna buy a season ticket.

Supporters of NZ are often quite wealthy but also quite frugal. Lentils and quinoa are relatively cheap and an avoidance of expensive foreign holidays (saving the world conferences excepted) whilst water is usually cheaper than tea or coffee means they have disposable income or no need to work e.g. (Roger Hallam) . The committed followers are also a minority - a noisy minority with the righteous indignation that the less educated need ....er, well educating.

The Telegraph article is stating that Farage has a better feeling for the British public than these people. I think he is right. There will be a big poll on May 1 for some local elections and a by election in Runcorn. I suggest that Starmer and Labour will pay more attention to that than any poorly worded "poll".

We are even getting good vibrations from the home of wokery - California. God only knows what happens next. Wouldn't it be nice if they dumped their crusade - they could be heading for wipe out or shut down - read on https://www.americaoutloud.news/california-net-zero-leaders-want-to-shutter-its-only-zero-emissions-electricity-generating-plant/

I think a lot of positioning and posturing will be around this summit. How long will Lammy attend for? They'll struggle to keep it quiet (if they want to) because Fatih Birol likes the limelight just as much as Ed. They can gag Ed, harder with Fatih. A lot of moving parts as in people so it will be like herding cats to an extent. Will Starmer make a show?

Will someone break rank or be indiscreet. Renewables are on the backfoot at present and Reform are making a big push in Runcorn this Saturday. I've looked at the attendees and there is a proliferation of quangos and organisations that seem to overlap to a large extent. O/T does anyone know the collective noun for a meeting of quangos and ngos?

We have to navigate this 'Summit' on Thursday and Friday:

https://www.iea.org/events/summit-on-the-future-of-energy-security

The IEA doesn't include Saudi Arabia, Russia, or Iran but does have a reluctant US which is exiting The Paris Agreement. This will be spun as a summit of the world's leading O&G producers and is of course nothing like the truth. I hope MSM correct the misinformation which will be regurgitated. Ed will be in his element strongly supported by Fatih Birol. I looked up the attendees here https://www.iea.org/events/summit-on-the-future-of-energy-security#participants

This was obviously arranged months ago and bearing in mind the amount of O&G the world still uses the industry is woefully under-represented. In fact under the list of Non-Government I was wondering how NESO, GB Energy and the CCC can be said to be non-governmental with a straight-face.

It does mean however that Ed will big up his messianic role and has plenty of acolytes there cheering him on who owe their job to him. No actual Trade unions there but a couple of idealists. I do hope they've sorted out the toilet arrangements for Mika-Minio Paluello.

On this special day The Messiah of Net Zero has spoken (writing in stone doesn't work for him) and has responded to the increasing attacks on his mission. This time he has gone back to Canon Law and that arbiter in all things eschatological, The Observer. He makes his case for an eventual elevation to Sainthood (or the House of Lords).

He appears to have learned little since he told Jeremy Paxman "Hell yes, I'm tough enough!" with an equally punchy headline "If our political opponents want a fight about clean energy, then bring it on". A phrase I haven't heard in years - perhaps because my schooldays are so long ago.

A couple of gems in the article: "According to the CBI the net zero economy grew three times faster than the economy as a whole last year - and already, since the general election, more than £43bn of private investment has been pledged for our clean mission, creating thousands of jobs." My reading, since the GE and Miliband's enthronement foreign companies have taken advantage of the subsidies and grants offered in a once-in-a-lifetime giveaway by a Sovereign Nation. BTW - who are the CBI? AI tells me they represent 3% of British businesses.

And this, "Take steel - the prime minister did not hesitate to act in the national interest to protect the steel industry. Yes, there are siren voices that want to knock us off course. They would keep Britain locked in dependence on global markets we don't control. They will also make up any old nonsense and lies to pursue their ideological agenda." Back to the playground I'm afraid - 'I said it first and my dad's prime minister'. He then blamed the reliance on natural gas power generation for higher prices than international allies - "not too much clean energy, but too little."

He is offering free Kool-Aid to supporters.

"Europe must be prepared to sanction Iran over its nuclear programme, America has warned.

It comes as a new report is expected to announce that Tehran is “dangerously” close to having nuclear weapons.

Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that Europe has a “decision to make” when it comes to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

“I believe we should all anticipate that they’re about to get a report from the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] that says not just Iran is out of compliance, but Iran is dangerously close to a weapon, closer than they’ve ever been,” he said.

“For the Europeans, they have an important decision to make very soon on the snap-back of sanctions – because Iran is clearly out of compliance with the current deal." From an article in today's DT.

I'm suggesting that the OFAC extension on Rhum isn't set in stone. An erratic US administration and a resident itching to play with his bullworker isn't encouraging.

Https://oeuk.org.uk/public-asked-to-join-energy-conversations-as-oeuk-hosts-uk-wide-debates/

Warming up nicely