Member Info for romaron

Correction: not "clean" energy "fossil fuel" energy

ETR.ENR v ETR.SIE

Siemen Energy was split from Siemens AG in 2020. Siemens Energy are the CCGT manufacturers. The 1 year graphs make interesting reading.

The stimulus was partly this https://www.cleaningup.live/the-inflation-induction-act-how-the-us-lost-the-race-for-clean-energy-ep-219-ethan-zindler/

which I’ve saved you having to watch. The sub-message is they’re worried and finding reasons to torpedo “clean” energy and save the subsidies in the US. One plaintive excuse is that we’ve gone too far with renewables to go back and rely on CGGT supplying us with dispatchable electricity on demand as the fleets are ageing and there is a delivery wait of 8 years. In short they’re saying that ship has sailed.

Well, the charts don’t agree. In fact, if you’d bought the CGGT manufacturing stock a year ago you’d have made a gain of 275% against the AG which made 29%. If you missed the trade don’t despair because you hold something that will possibly match the performance of ETR.ENR. That is of course EnQuest.

I expect extensions to the existing CCGT fleet will be forthcoming because of the desperate need and the waiting time to come down as more companies extend or enter the space. The renewable sector has failed to fulfil promises and its fragility and reliance on (permanent) subsidies is now entering public discourse. The climate religion and its predictions have faded as the scam of “models” and “settled science” have been ripped apart by real statisticians and scientists. The Green dream has been exposed as a Green fantasy. The camarilla behind the Green religion will soon start eating each other. The money people are already moving out.

As for Miliband. "When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become a king. The palace turns into a circus" (Turkish proverb). I think Starmer’s survival instincts will make him [Starmer] do the right thing.

EnQuest is extremely well positioned. We are like the remaining CGGT plants in the UK. In short supply and essential to keeping the lights on. It needs a policy change/adjustment for lift off. It is coming.

I once bought some Roasted Seaweed from Costco and it tasted like, well, like how seaweed is supposed to taste I imagine. I was looking for what I choose in a Chinese restaurant which is apparently actually made from cabbage or greens with a dab of fishpaste and a dressing of MSG. Actual seaweed is something very different and to my tastebuds, disgusting. Mind you, I would try laverbread.

I'm glad to see that Vattenfall have a plan 'B' for the concrete bases but we know that it is a spoof. A 'Limited Edition' and why haven't they picked seaweed from the oil rigs in the NS before now?

I suspect we're gonna see a wind farm operator go bust in the not too distant future. It could be a big one.

Fans of renewables (and seaweed) will enjoy the Ad and I thought it was well done. No mention of dead birds though.

Https://www.agcc.co.uk/news-article/chamber-embrace-oil-and-gas-to-spur-on-growth

A few commentators are asking "Where is Ed?" Seems to be in a bunker somewhere.

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This is gold dust. I asked in earlier posts for a champion for the battered North Sea O&G Industry. Here she is. Listen from 1:02:30 https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=wSzloMN8hRY

And right at the end (1:09:50) she was asked “where in the energy sector could you make £millions/£billions?” Her reply with the caveat she is not qualified to give financial advice was: “If I was looking to deploy capital in the Energy Sector I’d probably just want to go as far upstream as possible, I think there is always going to be value in oil & gas production”.

Earlier in the video (22:30) she pointed out that renewables began inflating electricity prices as far back as 2011. Until then they tracked gas which was cheap and stable.

There is a humdinger aimed at wind companies and DESNZ at (37:50) regarding AR7 and the threat from Richard Tice and Reform. She raises the interesting legal point of “mitigation”.

Kathryn Porter towers over the renewable dwarfs with her knowledge, experience and intellect. Added to that she is formidably articulate. Go girl!

New Zealand going back to O&G exploration. Octopus breaching regulatory cash shortfall and a forced sale (or reading the runes) of their Kraken offshoot. It seems somewhat similar to when EIG moved out of Harbour. They know when a market has run its course. This sums it up neatly.

https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/dark-future-renewables

I see it from a slightly different perspective. I see funds drying up that supported the "climate crisis" activists. Easy to be an activist with financial support and no real risk of arrest. That has changed.

The circus is packing up and looking for a different mission. Countries are running out of money and losing key industries due to uncompetitive energy supplies.

From the link "Renewables operators, and their investors and lenders, meanwhile, will suddenly find that they have become the bad guys." The activists will bleat but the real impact is with the renewable 'investors and lenders'. They also care about money and economics. They are pulling out. Renewables have been a poor investment for those remaining. They've sucked the subsidy trough dry.

Listen at 18:50 (Miliband sneaking in AR7 on Day 1 of Parliament summer recess) and then at 23:30 with the killer line at 26:20

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfmTbW10Y84

I emailed Eigen Values.

Hi David, not sure what's behind your attack on Octopus but it grabbed my attention. I cannot stand the man [Greg Jackson] and moved to British Gas because I find him nauseous. I didn't know they were backers of Xlinks which is now in the long grass. What surprised me from your excellent research is just how threatened the Octopus conglomerate is. I have made enough bad investments to spot the signs and lights are flashing red and amber on Octopus. Their only saviour is government subsidy and few can afford to bale them out. I imagine our friend Dale Vince is going through something similar.

I remember what happened to EAGA 2010/11 when subsidies were reduced and Octopus and others could easily implode. This against a background of general disappointment in renewable promises and going against physics that are by and large immutable. Throw in human nature and how easy it is to manipulate crowds (for a time) and we may be heading for the "perfect storm". I share your worry about getting new CCGTs on line but have great faith in our engineers being able to extend the life of existing ones.

I think you may be ahead of the game here. I imagine that stock analysts have already picked up on your notes. This could be the stake that drives through the heart of Net Zero.

And Trump's intervention is a godsend. I imagine there is panic all around at Labour HQ.

To paraphrase Hemingway - "How did Net Zero end. Two ways: Gradually then suddenly"

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4KHR6lPbuM

I hadn't seen it before. Superb. 2 months old but at 10:00 he quoted the "Donald Trump Benefit". The wind companies are finished without MORE subsidies. Miliband's zealotry will not allow him to face reality. I liked the "Trigger" analogy for wind farms at the end.

Not our Kraken but Kraken Technologies owned by Octopus Energy Group. It appears that Octopus is struggling. Any company built on, or relying on its investments to survive by subsidies will always have a day of reckoning. The UK can NO longer fund renewables in the manner to which they have become accustomed. They try the charity angle to an extent but in the cruel real world you need to be economically sound. That does not apply to most renewables companies. I go on about EAGA back in 2010/11 but it is a perfect precedent.

Octopus for now but it follows that Labour friend and cheer leader Dale Vince will have similar headwinds and I cannot wait for facts to trump platitudes and propaganda.

This Exposé of Octopus will drive a coach and horses through Ed Miliband's claims if it gets enough attention.

https://open.substack.com/pub/davidturver/p/peak-pink-octopus?r=lx6e9&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

From Doomberg:

"A common theme of these pages is that energy is the root of industrial might, and military might is a derivative thereof. The prolific nature of Russia’s military-industrial complex stands as stark and predictable proof of that axiom. For pointing out such obvious truths, we’ve occasionally faced criticism from wishcasters who insist reality isn’t real. But wars are won with physics, not platitudes. Now that the Statistical Review of World Energy lists EU totals as a separate line item—a practice it began last year—analysts can easily inspect and quantify the root causes of the Union’s accelerating decline into irrelevance. Since all wars are energy wars, let’s peruse the newly released 2025 edition of the Review to see how the EU stacks up against actual powers..."

This is the link to the Review - https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review

I really hope it doesn't end in Putin v Miliband!

Fascinating. I have always thought that SVT is a strategic holding but I don't know enough to know if SGP can be integrated into the EnQuest portfolio. We bare clearly in a strong bargaining position but we are only a shareholder in SVT so clearly complicated. It does differentiate us and gives us a certain uniqueness and a useful bargaining chip. We passed on it previously I guess. Thanks for the contribution OilMan

Https://x.com/juneslater17/status/1948441177033949234

I found this shocking from a newsletter from the NPC (National Pensioners Convention): "Having myself served an apprenticeship as a sheet metal worker, I have always recognised the value of apprenticeships, to those who couldn’t or didn’t want to go to University. I know that a lot of engineering jobs have disappeared over the years, but nevertheless I was still surprised to see that the British Army and the Royal Navy and Airforce are the largest employers taking on apprentices, having taken on over 9,700 in the past year. Busy Bees Nurseries with nearly 800 is the next highest. Being cynical is that because it’s cheap labour?

I was unsurprised by the deindustrialisation of the UK because of Net Zero but what has traumatised me is the Busy Bee apprenticeships. I've just found out that my mother (who raised eight of us) wasn't qualified!

How can Labour use words like transparency and honesty, Disinformation and opaqueness is more the order of the day. The relentless attacks on industry and particularly oil & gas is having the desired result. The majors have all but gone and now the remaining mid and small sized operators are relocating their businesses. GB Energy = eggs in one basket. How much longer will the country put up with these lies and mismanagement.

https://www.agcc.co.uk/news-article/where-has-the-data-gone-uk-govt-under-fire-over-windfall-tax-silence

Reads to me that the Energy Security and Net Zero Committee were kept in the dark. Nobody from the Tories to ask a sensible question. A Commons Select "These committees play a crucial role in holding the government to account and ensuring transparency and effective policy-making."

Er, NO.

I'm even more enraged as I'm gonna have to watch and listen to the Committee meeting again.

I wasn't going to post this because it is the definition of boring https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/5bca6383-7d7f-448d-b877-f9048c035376

There are 11 Committee members. 7 Labour, 2, Lib Dem and 2 Tory. On Monday the Tories didn't bother to attend along with 2 Labour. They didn't miss anything. There was an end-of-term feel about it and Ed was just repeating the usual tropes. 'Petrostates and Dictators' obviously along with 'it's the right thing to do' and 'the public get it'. He was (very) gently questioned and a complaint from several was that written answers were just recirculated announcements and why did the committee learn about official announcements only after the event with NO prior knowledge 13:04). The committee is NOT kept in touch. A suggestion of a WFT for electricity generators (13:19) was swerved whilst Reform and Richard Tice were accused of being ideologs by Ed.

All rather depressing and I was left with the feeling that the committee were just reading their lines. Nothing new and very tired and repetitive. I can't wait for AR7.

And this is the simplified version https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVJjlwMnz-Y

I wish I'd paid more attention during my Physics lessons. I surprised myself with how much did sink in and I am turning into a nerd. I also have a crush on Kathryn Porter. Just how brainy is she?

I emailed her over a query and something I thought she had missed. There is a false claim circulating that fossil fuels are subsidised to the sum of £17bn in the UK and ChatGPT agreed with the false claim. I challenged ChatGPT and it changed the superficial report that could have been written by Tess or Vince. To my surprise she replied. This is it:

"ChatGPT is not an AI it's a language prediction model, like a word association game. The results depend on whether you use a paid version (which broadens the data) and set memory retention (which allows it to learn).

It's not hallucinating the £17bn, simply repeating an often repeated claim. If you then go to a better version it digs deeper and if it knows what you look for will dig deeper still.

I've discussed this with ChatGPT myself and this is my conclusion. It said it has learned from our interactions although it didn't call it learning. It told me it know if it gives me a superficial answer I will make it look again so it now bypasses the first step.

It's not infallible. The notion that inductors absorb and capacitors release reactive power is so ingrained in the energy literature that it keeps repeating it despite knowing I won't allow that because both devices do both simply at different points in the voltage cycle. So it corrects itself after I complain.

Unfortunately too many people think these models are genuine AIs and believe what they say. They are not. They are simply a more sophisticated research tool than Google etc ie only as good as their data.

Unfortunately they do occasionally hallucinate but that's when they say something that cannot be evidenced elsewhere. Eg if they claimed FF subsidies worldwide were funded by France that would be a hallucination because you won't find such a theory anywhere online. But repeating a false statement isn't a hallucination, it's an artefact of the way these models work."

The UT opener - 350,000 @12.86

12:39 175,000 @13.30 Offbook

12:39 175,000 @13.24 Offbook

14:14 147,841 @ 13.296 SINT

14:39 147,841@ 13.296 0ffbook

No trades other than the pair of 147,841 between 13:55 and 14:52

No knowledge but could speculate. An overnight order (3 D's?) to sell 350,000. Pocketed and then sold around 12:39. If that is the case then it is encouraging. It suggests that the MM feels there is an underlying buying interest. It could even be placed with a favoured client who has a buying order too. To make the market think it was selling pressure would also assist by rigging the UT. You could argue that one buyer has picked up 1 million shares on a dead day without moving the market against them too much. The almost 1 hour gap in trading could easily be lunchtime or maybe to fool the algorithms?

Only ripples but this could be a result of the Shore note. Still poor volume but it usually is this time of the year.

*the best news is Reform taking AR7 out of the closet - Ed would love it to be done in the shadows but I suggest that commentators are even now trying to get their heads around what a CfD really is and how damaging they are to the public purse and how they pass it on making it a risk-free investment for foreign companies and the likes of Dale Vince.

I'm not surprised by the low response. There is also map link https://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=707101 and the only ones who care are based around Aberdeen. There is widespread APATHY and the British have become supine and no longer seem to care as indignity and rules are heaped upon us without a murmur.

There are voices that are resisting and presently it is only Reform politically. Labour are unaware or have forgotten that their once core voters are becoming increasingly angry. There is hope because as Labour change their policy towards Reform it will heap pressure on Ed Miliband and his cohort. I think that Reform's latest move is very interesting. This is what Kathryn Porter has to say: https://x.com/KathrynPorter26/status/1945761173946953995 It is early days but I haven't seen a backlash from the public. The apathy works 2 ways. For and against Net Zero. People are sick of it but a few power cuts will work wonders.