Member Info for romaron

Hi Auson, my feeling is that AB is like a politician who is continuing the hustings and the door knocking even though the polls suggest that there'll be tinkering with the EPL and regulatory controls. The Labour Conference is unlikely to be where anything is announced but we should see which way (sorry) the wind is blowing. Gary Smith seemed confident whilst Sharon Graham carries on her circus trick of trying to ride two horses at the same time.

This is under 2 hours old from The Guardian:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/sep/29/labour-must-fight-right-wing-billionaires-undermining-net-zero-ed-miliband

"Labour is in a fight against “global network of rightwing billionaires” who want to undermine net zero for their “vested interests”, Ed Miliband has said.

The energy secretary said that the Conservatives and Reform UK were “importing a net zero culture war” and that accelerating the green transition would be key to winning the argument with the public.

“Genuinely, I relish this fight on clean energy and net zero,” he told the Guardian. “Because that is what politics is about.”

and this

In his speech at Labour conference on Wednesday, Miliband will also promise to accelerate unionisation of the green energy sector – amid a backlash among trade unions on the drive to net zero which they have said comes at a cost of highly paid unionised jobs in oil and gas.

He is out of control it seems.

"End UK North Sea ‘suicide’

North Sea EnQuest boss urges the UK to change 'self-inflicted wounds' of energy policies."

Big picture of AB and from the article: " He said proposals include delinking the price of oil from the price of gas – North Sea gas production and consumption is largely seen as a key to the UK’s transition to net zero targets." this from the article:

"EnQuest has been involved alongside a number of North Sea industry players in a fiscal forum with government to address what happens to EPL as part of a consultation launched by government.

Industry has favoured a complete overhaul of the levy as well as bringing forward the end date before 2030. This is due to the damage the UK fiscal regime is inflicting, including the loss of 1,000 jobs per week, not to mention a failure of the levy to bring in taxes the Chancellor of the Exchequer hopes will fund clean energy investment.

Bsiesu said the fiscal forum has been “very constructive” and that it has achieved consensus on new tax framework that is “workable”.

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Reads to me like nothing has been agreed yet which is why AB is lobbying and happy to be quoted. Gary Smith seemed happier so I suspect that Labour have favoured the Unions against the companies. I have NO faith that Labour know what they are doing.

Thanks Dumbly. SG could be attacked from her past positions and saying in the Telegraph podcast released on 26 September that she supports Net Zero (19:50 for those who can access it) and said she could go on about the eye-watering profits of the energy companies and windfall tax whilst at the time promoting Unite's work on Nationalising energy. She does speak with forked-tongue but that doesn't single her out in particularly. Like Starmer and Miliband she is out of touch with her grass root members, the workers and Labour with the Labour voters (and workers). Those of the far Left always believe there is a magic money-tree for "public service" and don't forget Miliband is their favourite son.

Will Starmer risk ignoring the clarion calls regarding energy? If he does it will speed up the collapse of his administration and his time as leader of Labour. What comes next could be even worse.

Make sense more common!

Doesn't like cut & paste:

"Routine/typical tiebacks in mature basins are often

Routine/typical tiebacks in mature basins are often

Great minds and all that AoK. I was thinking something similar. I was going to send an email to Craig regarding tie-backs but realised that we can now bypass IR for general info. I asked chatGTP instead and recommend those interested do the same. The proximity of Bressay and Bentley make it commercial with present prices and subsea tiebacks are usually between 5-50km. chatGPT said this:

Routine/typical tiebacks in mature basins are often

I was at the Westminster demo for Lindsey on 3rd September where Sharon Graham was speaking. This outburst of hers contradicts the Daily T podcast that she gave recently with Kamal Ahmed. The story was in the Daily Telegraph on the 26th but I've no idea when the interview took place. She said in that podcast that energy companies were making "eye-watering profits" and that she was a supporter of NZ. She also alluded to her Renationalisation of Energy report which Unite produced that was researched by Uplift among others. It was possibly the softest interview I've come across recently and Ahmed was obsequiousness personified. BUT it is a handbrake turn by Graham in what appears a short space of time. What finally made her backtrack? .

Maybe she is finally seeing that her job IS jobs, pay and conditions for workers and not Green ideology. Another thought on Ed Miliband as Secretary of DESNZ. Maybe part of the reason for him staying was that there wasn't a replacement prepared to step into his shoes. Political suicide isn't usually the best option. I think NZ in its current form is a dead duck. They aren't talking about it which says a lot.

Good find AoK. The tide HAS turned.

Part of an article by David Turver of Eigen Values:

"It is interesting is that RWE, Orsted, TRIG and Greencoat UK Wind have all issued profit warnings this year because of lower than expected wind generation. Six of ORIT’s top-10 investments are in wind projects in the UK, Finland, France and Germany so it is likely that ORIT’s wind assets have also suffered reduced generation. This is not yet evidence of a trend, but short term the asset value will likely have to be reduced."

ORIT is part of Octopus Group. This helps explain why Greg Jackson and Dale Vince are panicking.

On top of this there is decommissioning and these assets were given optimistic lives and are not ring-fenced. I wonder what AR7 will bring?

And away goals count double. I don't know if Dumbly saw Kuenssberg on Sunday but there was a panel of three. Be interested to read his view and any others who watched. Alan Johnson, Bell Ribeiro and Gary Smith. An old school Labour, Left winger and the leader of the GMB Union. I was obviously more interested in Gary Smith and what he had to say. The first two were predictable, Gary Smith wasn't. He was very supportive of Labour and didn't mention Net Zero once! Why?

Alan Johnson was pragmatic and loyal, Bell Ribeiro demanded more investment in 'public services' which attracted a smile from GS in the absurdity of her claim because where does the money come from?

I think Gary Smith has been given the nod from Labour Central. His lobbying has halted for now. He has been openly critical of NZ and the damage it has caused to the O&G industry and lets not forget he is a Jock. I think we are seeing a gradual change of direction from Labour with O&G. I'll be intrigued at what Ed Miliband has to say at the Conference. They'll have to loosen the gag on him. It'll need masterful spin but then Ed is expert at making mistakes and then claiming it was his intention all along and unforeseen events have forced a change. Don't forget that energy bills go up on Wednesday.

Article titled - "Drill, baby, drill! Why Trump's North Sea oil fantasy could become reality" by Dominic O'Connell a journalist with a good nose and contacts.

It stemmed from Trump's badgering of Starmer during the State Visit and mentioning again at the UN. He thinks the "tie-back" solution will be adopted and Labour are already making noises about it. AB even got a mention "Amjad Bseisu, the boss of EnQuest, another oil explorer that had planned to capitalise on the major's withdrawal, said this week that a thousand jobs were going each month." Pressure builds. Ed is in hiding.

"It ain't over till it's over."

North Sea not ‘suffering’ from windfall tax, Lib Dems claim

Lib Dem energy and net zero spokesperson Pippa Heylings said the party would retain the energy profits levy (EPL) if they win power and will add a new tax on banks.Lib Dem frontbencher Heylings said that the party would keep the EPL if it came to power at the next general election in 2029 or sooner.

The party plans to retain the levy on oil and gas profits in a “dynamic capacity”, she told Energy Voice.

“We understand the market,” she added, denying that the tax was inflicting damage on the oil and gas industry.

“What we will do is work with the oil and gas sector to make sure we can keep the lights on while we’re going through the transition and keep those economies alive, too,” Heylings said.

“We don’t think they’re suffering. They’re not.”

--------------

What world do these people live in? This will go down well in Aberdeen. She has a degree in "Environmental Education" whatever that is. She should stick to bungee jumping.

As expected "The plan is controversial among green campaigners. Tessa Khan, the executive director of the climate group Uplift, said: “While we remain distracted by ever diminishing amounts of oil and gas, we are missing the huge opportunities to create good, clean energy jobs in the UK, in domestic wind manufacturing in particular, that will last us long into the future.”

Officials are also working on plans to allow companies to explore new parts of the seabed from sites they already operate, in an process known as “tie-backs”.

Allies of the energy secretary said no final decisions had yet been taken."

Masterful timing by AB. I don't know if it was the reason for sure but they would have known the results well before changing the date of the HYRs. If this was the reason then hats off to AB and his advisors. It is fresh and just in time for the Labour Conference. The Trade Unions fighting for North Sea jobs will jump on it for sure.

I think most on here share the thoughts of Frac and Stevo. A whopping profit would have been manna to Ed Miliband and climate activists. These figures the day after Trump's performance at the UN must surely heap even more pressure on the fantasy of NZ and the hopelessness of wind and solar replacing fossil fuels at anywhere near an economic price or ever be dispatchable. We all know by now that Ed's position is strengthened because Starmer is terrified of the Far Left or maybe Starmer agrees with him/them wholeheartedly?

Starmer runs the risk of upsetting his new best buddy Donald. I think even this pair will hesitate to risk blackouts this winter. The Labour Conference might throw out a few tidbits. If the EPL was to become permanent in its present form or a deal is unachievable then the only rational decision is to sell EnQuest. I don't think that will be necessary as expediency never leaves politics for long and our dowry remains. Surely we've left virtue signalling NZ behind as a failed policy!

Thanks Frac - I missed it. Good but not good enough imo. I asked ChatGPT (I know they're not perfect) but there doesn't seem to be any application in with NSTA to progress the gas import from Bressay. The reason I go on about it is that once we have it I expect it makes our case for developing Bressay much stronger and I am more hopeful than I've been for some time that it will get developed. We need to get a move on! Germany are importing gas from Russia. Needs Must. Pressure is on from industry over the cost of energy causing de-industrialisation and job losses.

This was neither here nor there but I expect it is all they can really say: "EnQuest's business development team remains very active in both the UK North Sea and South East Asia, as the Group pursues transformative growth."

I'm pretty happy with the results because I was worried that there was an unwelcome development surprise following the poor share performance. It all rests on a deal and Ed Miliband imo.

But headroom kinda compensated "Cash and undrawn facilities rose to $577.8 million (end 2024: $474.5 million)."

The two big changes we are after are still in "transition". A deal to utilise our UK tax losses/allowances and an olive branch from Labour. No mention of proceeding the gas tie-back to Bressay.

He attacked the UK for abandoning the North Sea and Aberdeen. Sadiq Khan for trying to bring in Sharia law. The two biggest problems facing the West are the energy scam and illegal immigration. He took no prisoners. I enjoyed every minute. Plenty of inaccuracies from him but the message was clear.

If as forecast/leaked that Miliband will allow tie-backs then surely Bressay is in play? Aren't we applying to NSTA for gas from Bressay to power Armada Kraken? The sticking point may not be Miliband but Mazzagatti?

Shame the HYR isn't next week when we'd know what Miliband has to say at the Labour Conference.

It doesn't surprise me. Everything is subjective in trading and if I was trying to do size I'd want my sells to look like buys when taking a position or unloading. Then there are rules about when to record the non-automatic trades. I'd want to mask and delay them too. Not all players are diligent with their reporting and we all remember the shenanigans with Premier and ARCM. The fine was a pittance so it could easily happen again. The major shareholders list also depends on the companies informing EnQuest and is never accurate imo. On that basis I only look at them occasionally. Something has been going on and hopefully all will be revealed on Wednesday. Friday's trading is mystifying.

It does seem we've had a persistent seller for a few weeks which is annoying and doesn't fit with the current improving media against Net Zero - I hope there isn't any bad news in the HYR. The bonds have held up well so it is hard to explain.

For a variety of reasons, we must speculate about EnQuest. Whether it is the actual performance, price of oil. Political, fiscal etc… we fall into the trap of following the narrative from traditional media and the internet. Laws of libel persist and then there is the need to keep contacts on side or not breach sources/confidentialities. I think the Labour Conference in a week’s time when Ed will hold the stage on Energy. I think that is in Starmer’s thinking.

BUT, there is one area we don’t really cover that also affects EnQuest and every company in the NS and that is Legal disputes. There ae 2 in this week’s Private Eye which doesn’t have to toe any party or industry lines.

One is Drax and it is under investigation by the FCA. I like these observations :

”Don’t be misled by Ofgem’s conclusion that Drax is still entitled to its billions in subsidies – a very narrow and technical assessment, based on the culpably lax regulations Drax operates under” and “Approach the many senior staff involved in the Panorama affair that have left the company since the current turmoil began. They all signed stern non-disclosure agreements: but that doesn’t stop them answering questions from a statutory authority.” Ed Miliband is a known Drax sceptic and its share price is looking wobbly.

The other is Viaro Energy and its owner Francesco Mazzagatti. The NSTA is investigating them and applying fitness tests because they will own strategic gas fields and the Bacton terminal if the deal with Shell and Exxon Mobile goes ahead. PI asked the NSTA when it would reach a decision on the Shell sale to Viaro and whether it had considered the various legal proceedings involving Mazzagatti. It responded: “The NSTA does not comment on commercial matters relating to licensees.”

Fair enough but ongoing Court cases do comment by reaching decisions and these are ongoing, and they make alarming claims against Mazzagatti. If the deal does fall apart then I believe there will be a plan B for other companies to pick up the pieces. I just hope we’re in with the good guys. The Bressay deal and the EP FPSO deal means we are involved collaterally with Viaro and that may be holding back the price?

There are many options and we have NO idea which ones EnQuest will go for and the tax losses and allowances make for a valuable dowry. I don’t know enough but I can’t help but compare Viaro to Prax!