Member Info for robbie2401

My investment thesis for the last few years has been that gold juniors are cheap compared go gold on a historical basis. I have tried to buy the dips in gdxj over the last few year and now have a large position. I understand that this gap is in part due to cost inflation at mines reducing free cashflow in that time, but also due to the unpopularity of the sector.

The gold price rising to even 2,500 is more when than if and margins will be increased and the sector will gain interest as money is made. I am waiting for a gold price breakout and for a change in the MnA market.

I am disappointed to see Shanta management recommend this 13.5p cash acquisition so early in the MnA cycle for such a small premium. Have they misunderstood their investor clientele?

Are management simply keen for an out? In which case even voting no leaves you with a dilema.

It is no wonder there is no interest in this sector, anyone still smarting from Sirius? Friends and family rounds make money at the start, an institution buys the asset on the cheap at the end and retail investors take the risk in the middle and are rarely rewarded.

Unfortunately, it seems when the market improves, someone other than Shanta investors will make the money!

Gold equities don't seem to be moving as convincingly as the gold price. This doesn't seem to be a Centamin thing.

I believe the below from CEY's 2022 annual report is still true?

'(d) Commodity price risk The Group’s future revenue forecasts are exposed to commodity price fluctuations, in particular gold that it produces and sells into the global markets and fuel prices. The market prices of gold is the key driver of the Group’s capacity to generate cash flow. The Group has not entered into any forward gold or fuel hedging contracts.'

I just purchased some more shares at 82p- lets see if the gold equities market wakes up in the coming weeks. I bought some more GDXJ and Barrick a few weeks ago. Barrick up 20% since, CEY up 5% from the same date. Lets see if CEY catches a bid following the some plugging in the Sunday Times etc over the weekend. Back to 100p in the coming weeks?

Increases on low volumes is not usually considered a good thing. You want the volume!Sell the rumour, buy the news right...except almost everyone here is sitting on high paper losses so they will likely hold on until the end.Back above penny pre-consolidation....15 years of value creation for you....and the waiting game is becoming more expensive.Best wishes all- I hope this reaches a satisfactory end especially for those who have also been long term shareholders.

Purchase Limit order just triggered, happy to increase my holding at 9p here. Just wait 18 months. If you aren’t buying gold juniors now- when are you. GLA

"[We see now the gold industry worshipping Crysos technology, which needs a nuclear power station to run it, but lets not worry about that detail. The marvelous technology measures the total amount of gold...not what is extractable....and so on we go, just change the names and the commodity, but ...]"

I have worked with Chryos in West Australia....according to wikipedia "Australia has one nuclear plant in Lucas Heights, Sydney, but is not used to produce nuclear power, but instead is used to produce medical radioisotopes". So I'm not sure your fact on nuclear power is correct. I would happily be pointed in the right direction to some information on this though.

Chryos is photon assay technology, it tells you only about the geochemistry of a sample like traditional ICP-MS or fire assay methods, except its is quicker and doesn't destroy the sample. It tells you nothing about geometallurgy of a sample, it's crushability, recovery etc.

"If we don't find a buyer, we''ll go to plan b"....wasn't this the plan in 2015 or 2016 when the for sale sign went up? You can only pretend you are going to go into construction yourself for so long (perhaps 7 years says it all). If Condor hasn't done this by now, I don't think the inclination is there. I would love to see Condor succeed and maybe a final 18p purchase to average down before going into a gold bull market (fingers crossed) might be a punt. Nicaragua isn't a great place to be selling assets right now, Condor's recent affiliation with Danial Ortega doesn't help. I look forward to watching what will happen here, I'm just pleased my position CNR feels properly sized.

Have a read of this and let me know your thoughts (definitely a daily blog worth following for latin american news imo):
https://iknnews.com/condor-gold-cnr-l-cog-to-decides-to-run-away-from-nicaragua/

Been watching the price since I met CF and IS at PDAC in June. I really like the story, I like the projects, I like the team, I like the commodity exposure and jurisdiction. Just taken a small position at 8.3p, good luck all.

Not to be unnecessarily contentious, but IMO they did seem like BS sell the news kinda RNS' to me. Though the more the merrier in the data room right.

For my part, Shanta is a buy. At 9p it is a nice buy, under even better.

The takeout potential here remains high and if it isn't bought out, no bother. The opportunity for respectable share price appreciation in the next 18 months looks very good to me provided you aren't too greedy.

I couldn’t agree more! Sitting on a small loss on a large position, happy to be collecting those dividends until the gold market is a little bit more in focus again.

Profit up 10m exlcuding exceptional AL item, divi held, down 13% at one point for a quiet july. It can't fall by 13% everytime there is a quiet month...there are too many months! Topped up friday morning.

No you are right and I see how it could be condescending, I really only said it because others commented expressing their interest to add additional goldies, which I wanted to encourage so that loyal shareholders here get their slice of the pie too. It came from a good place really.

ElectricLion, thanks for your reply, I sorry to have offended you. I certainly never said everyone, but almost definitely too many. It was certainly that way in 2011, including me and I have no doubt it could be applied to plenty of other AIM stocks too. The post was a reply to others on here expressing an interest in buying into other gold juniors. GL

I completely agree, in 2011 I only owned condor in the gold space (thought I was a genius went it went through the roof that year). This time round CNR is about 7% of my gold exposure, I'm holding at 37p, if/when this goes to 65p I will halve my holding and put the extra elsewhere. It might be a less successful strategy if CNR flies, but holding CMCL, SHG CEY, SPGP etc some physical silver gold and platinum. means I shouldn't miss out entirely if the CNR share price decides to do its own thing. Also, this way I feel I can continue to well wish CNR, its share holders and CNR directors and staff without fretting over the SP like I used to.

On another note, some voicing yesterday that CNR should wait for financing conditions to improve, I disagree with that sentiment entirely. Financing conditions in gold/ silver are great at the moment (it is improving for other metals too- I will be looking closely at Zn/Pb and Cu) and I would get the show on the road here, I believe gold will go higher and financing conditions will improve further, but it takes time to build a mine and until you are producing the gold price doesn't mean too much imo. If this is a large district the CF could be used to expand exploration and add ozs and LOM and suddenly its a new ball game. Dare I say, I feel progress has taken so long here that perhaps for the sake for CNRs credibility, waiting even longer isn't the best course.

I wish everyone here and MC the best of luck in the next few years. I would urge shareholders here to diversify into some other goldies to ensure they enjoy the bull run afterall you've sat through an agonising bear market in gold, you probably deserve it. I'd like to commend all they regular posters here, it really is a great online community and hope you all meet up when you receive your first interim dividend from CNR.

Thank you for your reply. So for a number of oz the price is fixed. Do you know how many oz and what this price is?

Hi Guys, does anyone here have an understanding of Shanta's hedging arrangements? I can't make sense of them from the financial statements. Does that explain why SHG doesn't rise and fall other similar gold producers? If I can't easily make sense of the arrangement is it possible it is creating caution amongst other investors? I'm looking to invest here, but can't explain why SHG doesn't have a higher valuation. Any pointers would be appreciated. Thanks

I've just bough into Caledonia mining. 55k oz dividend payer, completion of a new shaft will increase production to 80k in the next 18 months. completion of shaft will increase cashflow significantly, very interesting. Also invested here, but advisable to build a mining portfolio around producers!

Dilution is processing material that isn't ore, which reduces processed grade. Ore loss is not processing ore material and treating it as waste material. A degree of both are inevitable, so are factored in, but reduce economics of the mine. Keeping tabs of both is a key control point in the mining process.

IMO with the economy looking weaker, corporate earnings and dividends threatened and the threat of inflation in the coming years (due to money creation being more likely hit the real economy than during GFC QE), gold prices may continue to rise or hold at $1,700 levels. Gold equities will be back in favour for the first time since 2011.

Centamin prices have nearly doubled in the last 10 days, this is proportionally more than many other producers . I think this is in part because London doesn't have many gold producers listed anymore, especially with Acacia and Randgold leaving in the last year or so.

It is actually quite difficult for joe bloggs to buy into TSX and ASX listed businesses. This means UK retail investors are limited to a few businesses like Centamin, gold producing ETFs like iShares SPGP AND good quality London listed juniors.

Whatever your opinion of CNR's progress or future, Mark Child and team haven't cut corners anywhere in the process with their studies, the way they have financed and the choices of third parties they have used. So irrespective of any debate around the deposit, this makes them a quality investment option.

I think this, on top of Mestiza news today and potential fast track tolling agreement, will help buoy prices.

Last time this happened in 2016, the price reached 19ish and rerated considerably when the sell off stopped. Keep watching until you see price trend reverse.

Given the lack of speculative activity before the permits were announced, I am not surprised there hasn't been a big reaction. Maybe some fuss over the next geo results might have a greater effect.