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Hi,
Does anyone have thoughts or released info on how long the drill results will take to be ready for the market if we are starting in mid May?
What do people think about the way they will be RNS’d? Do people think that we will hear on each of the 3/4 drills or just collectively at the end of the project?
Knowing this would make a big difference to how I play the share so it’s interesting to think about...!
I agree with recent posters, I’ve no idea how they pulled that 20% figure for the report either and hopefully we will get some clarity after the seismics, the reason I invested more than I would so far for this is Mitchell’s taking part payment in shares. I would imagine that’s not that common.
We’ve got a lot of shots on goal, and overall there seems to be a good chance of success, and we don’t need as much as hoped for to have a viable business, but it could well be a bumpy ride so I’m also keeping something back to add on a big dump on bad news. I probably won’t slice now until results unless it gets hyped well above 11p which was the risked valuation.
Never easy but it looks like the reward here is potentially better than what I’ve looked at previously.
I don’t want to be negative but would anyone talk me through how they are analysing the risk of this not working out?
I’ve read about the c.20% chance of success for each drill, and I am imagining that they could well drill more than the initial 3 holes they have planned.
Share price would probably be pretty chaotic if they don’t achieve their goals on the first attempt, a lot of PI’s would sell and it seems statistically unlikely.
Obviously if they do it’s straight to the moon because one successful drill derisks everything else.
I have a position that I am trying to work out whether I want to put more in...
Need to look into trapping and sealing and perhaps how other helium producers have faired with their plans.
Well done to everyone who kept their nerve with this.
Obviously we have a further permit going through which must be almost a cert now and will likely affect the share price positively, but I wondered whether anyone has any thoughts on the first pour and what targets they have at this point?
Does the market tend to react to the amount and grades etc, and what do you think expectations are, or is it just getting gold out of the ground that is important at this stage?
Thanks, trying to decide on a strategy for this share.
Does anyone know the rough lead time between phase 2 results, and approval for a phase 3 trial?
Really good, thanks for sharing I didn’t obviously spot this and it makes a lot of sense.
100% this is the problem. People like Zengah think they are doing themselves a favour by 30 posts a day ramping a stock but the perception gets detached from reality.
People should know that there is a commercial opportunity for this drug that likely exceeds our market cap, and there are plenty more shots on goal.
It’s not bad news at all, just not setting the world alight, I’m not personally expecting miracles from the covid trial either but it all adds to the platform and 4D’s likelihood of being bought out.
Does anyone know when the next results are likely due? I’m assuming it’s for the C19 trial?
I’d recommend watching the presentation on the website.
The results aren’t WOW, but in the context of the condition which is really complex and there will probably never be a “cure”, the fact that it will be further refined, and also that this could be taken for much longer than 8 weeks, in addition to any other therapy I think the commercial opportunity is there, which is the important thing.
Doctors would much prefer a single prescription that’s given to all IBS patients in addition to other therapies and as the presentation said people will stick to a course of probiotics, even to get the placebo effect which shouldn’t be underestimated.
Problem is I have no idea how the market will react!
Imo plenty of people Invested here reading certain posters 30 ramps a day on this share and will be disheartened and sell, but the real value is in the MicroRX platform which will probably be sold to big pharma down the line.
The results aren’t amazing, but it doesn’t mean there isn’t a commercial opportunity, the treatment will be further refined.
The treatment is completely safe and that in itself will bring orders in, particularly because there isn’t any treatments for IBS-M.
I’m torn with what it will mean for the SP though, it adds a lot of value to the platform which is becoming increasingly valuable but the headline results aren’t great...
No I get that, I’m not saying it’s unlikely, or that we aren’t at all progressed, but people are acting like it’s all but signed and I don’t think that’s that’s the case.
The ‘end’ game in a large M&A sale can still take months.
I’m not trying to deramp but people making big financial decisions just reading lawyers have been appointed on an M&A transaction thinking it’s all but a done deal imminently makes me nervous.
I’m not saying you fall into that category but some people will.
I want the best result for all investors including myself.
There are no attempts at anything you muppet.
And what has your point got to do with anything?
I’m invested here, I like this share a lot, I think it’s a great investment. But appointing lawyers for a listed M&A deal doesn’t mean the deal is nearly done, it’s fair to say that, and it’s right to temper some of the giddiness.
It can take months to firm up interested parties and do initial due diligence, before you’d even set up a data room for example, we’ve also had a global pandemic to slow things down.
We don’t know what ‘recently’ means or if they changed counsel it’s all just speculation.
There is so much rubbish on this board.
It’s potentially a multi billion pound asset sale with huge complexities, you’d have external counsel from the start of the sales process, setting up the data room and working through due diligence with the prospective buyers counsel.
You couldn’t use a small law firm because they don’t have the bench depth or experience to deal with a listed company sale and they won’t be worried at all about the legal fees.
It doesn’t mean that contracts have been drawn up, it doesn’t mean an offer is on the table or it’s just a sale of assets or a full company sale.
It is positive, and the RNS was great but it’s like saying I’ve appointed a conveyancer to sell my house .... duh!
The share reached c.240 prior to the news we had today, and whilst it wasn’t massive, it’s a big step in the right direction because we will have extra data for COVID which then feeds into COPD too.
I’m surprised this hasn’t opened a lot higher today.
Thanks, Trek, for the really well thought out response.
That’s genuinely interesting and it’s helped me get my head around the figures and risks. I’m going to dig into this further, and play around a bit more. The fact the gold price is almost certainly on our side for the foreseeable really does give us an edge.
Thanks again.