The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
I am not measuring this with any degree of accuracy, but it certainly looks a little larger. Has anyone done any detailed comparisons?
TBN Diretor David Siegel has bought 3 MM more shares of TBN in last week. Obviously it is not FOG, but a good signal nonetheless. https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/tbn/61832ccc-67b.pdf
Still looks like a healthy flare and I do not notice any discernible difference. Did anyone else notice any changes worth noting? As many of you have no doubt seen, there are lots of articles our in the last couple weeks on the amount of electricity being consumed in connection with AI. More nat gas fired power plants would obviously create additional global nat gas demand and a boost for the Beetaloo. GLA!
OIlcountry - good assessment. The only other thing I willadd is that if we start seeing stellar results and global LNG prices hang in there, we might get more interest in this than just BS, whcih is what we need to get a good price. I am not holding my breath, but I think it is possible. On the LNG front, there were several good articles out yesterday and today including this: LNG growth to be met by other countries if US walks away – Baker Hughes CEO - If the U.S. pulls back from permitting new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, demand for the fuel will still be met from projects in Qatar, Argentina and Africa, the CEO of Baker Hughes, the world’s largest provider of equipment for the LNG sector, said on Thursday. The Biden administration in January paused new export permits for LNG projects to study the impact of further expansion, a move that has drawn criticism from LNG companies and their advocates. “We believe by 2030 there needs to be an installed base capacity of LNG of 800 million tons per annum and either through U.S. projects or international projects,” Baker Hughes CEO Lorenzo Simonelli said in an interview on the sidelines of CERAWeek conference in Houston. (Reuters)
It woul dbe helpful to see the actual farmin agreement amendment. The press release for the LOI said the penalty applied to the spacing unit for 1 well: "the introduction of limited proration units on sole risk operations to a maximum of 6,400 acres per well, providing Falcon Australia with participation optionality on the drilling of future wells;"
Has anyone compared the flare from today with what we saw around 10 days ago?
Fairly large volumes on US and CA this morning, but shares have drifted lower.
I was looking at some date on the early Marcellus entrants and re-reviewing the Hart's article I provided a link for. Range Resources was in othe rareas, but the Marcellus really accelerated its valude. Range had about a USD$3.5 billion market cap in 2005 when it drilled the first commercail Marcellus well in 2005. It broguht the first well online in 2007 and by August 1, 2009 had drilled 50 vertical and 50 HZ wells. Range had 900,000 acres, but about 550,000 in thearea it was devleoping. In April 2008, Range had a market cap of about USD$14 billion and gas prices had hit USD$12/MMbtu. As we all know, the economy tanked late 2008 and gas prices plunged. Range's market cap dropped to around USD$7 billion in 2009. In 2010, Range's market cap hit USD$14 billion again, which I would say is largely due to the Marcellus. The point is, it took a lot of development for the new shal play to pay off, but if you can filter out movements due to overall economy and yo-yo'ing natural gas prices, the Marcellus created billions of dollars of value largely due to a 550,000 acre position in the right part of the play. GLA
Tnbird - that is correct, and Tamboran has 1.9 million net prospective acres.
There are certainly a lot of interesting parallels to the Marcellus and other US shales. Maybe the biggest issues keeping values down is investors desire for cash flow and certainty. However, I am with most of the group here that this play is looking promising. THe first HZ well in the Marcellus was drilled by Range in 2006. There are a few interesting stats on the Marcellus at https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/marcellus-shale-10547#:~:text=The%20Renz%20Unit%20%231%2C%20the,horizontal%20Marcellus%20well%20in%20Pennsylvania.
By the close of 2007, Range had drilled 44 vertical and 15 horizontal wells in the Marcellus play and invested about $200 million. The Marcellus was real, although it took some in the industry another year to fully appreciate the black shale’s potential.
and at https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/archivenew_ngwu/2022/01_27/, including:
The initial production rate of natural gas from a new well drilled in the Marcellus Formation in the Appalachia Basin increased from about 5.6 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) in 2014 to approximately 15.8 MMcf/d in 2020, based on well-level data from Enverus.
GLA!!!
By adjusting, or normalizing, for these longer lateral lengths, we can assess increased well productivity from improved completion designs. Improved completion designs can include different proppant sizes and types, larger or varied water and gel mixes to carry the proppant throughout the induced fractures, and improved hydraulic fracturing techniques that allow better fracture propagation. Based on the normalized well productivity data, we calculate that the initial production rate from the average Marcellus natural gas well has been increasing by approximately 27% to 31% biyearly over the past six years for which complete data are available to build the decline profiles.
There are certainly a lot of interesting parallels to the Marcellus and other US shales. Maybe the biggest issues keeping values down is investors desire for cash flow and certainty. However, I am with most of the group here that this play is looking promising. THe first HZ well in the Marcellus was drilled by Range in 2006. There are a few interesting stats on the Marcellus at https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/marcellus-shale-10547#:~:text=The%20Renz%20Unit%20%231%2C%20the,horizontal%20Marcellus%20well%20in%20Pennsylvania.
By the close of 2007, Range had drilled 44 vertical and 15 horizontal wells in the Marcellus play and invested about $200 million. The Marcellus was real, although it took some in the industry another year to fully appreciate the black shale’s potential.
and at https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/archivenew_ngwu/2022/01_27/, including:
The initial production rate of natural gas from a new well drilled in the Marcellus Formation in the Appalachia Basin increased from about 5.6 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) in 2014 to approximately 15.8 MMcf/d in 2020, based on well-level data from Enverus.
GLA!!!
By adjusting, or normalizing, for these longer lateral lengths, we can assess increased well productivity from improved completion designs. Improved completion designs can include different proppant sizes and types, larger or varied water and gel mixes to carry the proppant throughout the induced fractures, and improved hydraulic fracturing techniques that allow better fracture propagation. Based on the normalized well productivity data, we calculate that the initial production rate from the average Marcellus natural gas well has been increasing by approximately 27% to 31% biyearly over the past six years for which complete data are available to build the decline profiles.
This was posted on Tambo's Hot Copper chat this morning:
From a nameless Broker
Note that market acquisition values have been around A$1.00-1.50/Gj with some over A$2/Gj.
TBN’s share of 17TCF would be 6.6TCF (7062Pj).
NPV basis at A$1.33/Gj = A$9.4bn.
Should SS1H IP30 give 20 BCF EUR then the NPV6 is 20% higher at A$1.59/Gj @ A$10/Gj.
This is only a simple yardstick since it will take many many decades to flow this volume of gas and this is only a small part of the Mid Velkerri B Formation and there is much much more in Mid Velkerri A and C. As well as other productive formation s in the stratigraphy.
TBN’s share of 27TCF would be 10.46TCF (11,192Pj).
These are of course long term projections but 2024 will be a truly transformative year for TBN.
SS1H IP30 followed by SN1V to confirm upgrade to 27 TCF and the commitment to the Shenandoah Pilot Development should change market perceptions of TBN and the Beetaloo.
TBN Major rerating coming here
TBN Price at posting: 21.5¢ Sent
This is a tough one to call. I think Biden's decsiion to put a moratorium on new LNG plant permits in the U.S. is a potential positive factor for Ausiie LNG. However, on a large wildcat play and lower values oil and gas investments have garnered for the last few years, it is really hard to say when we will see values rise. As a long time holder, I am still betting on an increase in value over time. I think we need to see this start cash flowing before we see any big uptick.
The below meeting is being held at 11:30 am Mountan Time today. It is sold out.
From Matt SilvermanMatt Silverman • 1st • 1st Senior Geoscience Advisor at Robert L. Bayless, ProducerSenior Geoscience Advisor at Robert L. Bayless, Producer
I'll be presenting at the Explorer's Club November 16 luncheon with Donny Loughry from Tamboran Resources. Our talk will be "Pioneering a Highly Unconventional, Multi-TCF Gas Play in the Beetaloo Basin, Australia." We'll describe the history of the play and the ongoing drilling activities which have revealed a world-class gas province.
The key reservoir, the thick, high-TOC Mesoproterozoic Velkerri Shale, could be one of the world's oldest productive petroleum systems. It shares geological similarities with the Marcellus formation over a vast area. Appraisal efforts are well underway, with the aim of achieving first gas sales by 2026 and a 2 BCFD gas supply by 2030.
It's happening at the Hotel Monaco in downtown Denver on Thursday, November 16, 2023, starting at 11:30 AM.
The luncheon fee is $50 per person and can be settled upon your arrival via Venmo, cash, or check. The venue will be in the basement meeting rooms, and please be aware that they can only accommodate the first 50 RSVPs. To attend, email Jacinda Brown at jacinda@roxyenergy.com by NOON on Monday, November 13, 2023.
WetWater - as I said, veryone has different thoughts on this issue. IMHO, a rollup into Tambo now would eliminate the G&A burn and woudl still offer upside in Tambo. Of course, it all depends on what the exchange rate would be as to whether or not it makes sense. Given BS's investment in Tambo, I would feel much more comfortable with my investment under that team that what we have at FOG. Every shale play is one huge learning curve. It is going to take time. I do not think that current management will last unless they quit fumbling the ball.
Did anyone listen to the call and hear any updates on the well with the skin issue?
Given the amonot Falcon is spending on G&A, maybe it is time to roll up Falcon into Tambo. I understand there is always a tough bid/ask on these types of deals, and everyone has different thoughts, but it makes no sense for FOG to continue burning cash on G&A when it has ansolutely no activity.
The RaaS report is interesting, but not exactly unbiased. "This report has been commissioned by Empire Energy Group Ltd prepared and issued by RaaS Advisory Pty Ltd. RaaS Advisory has been paid a fee to prepare this report." It would be nice to see some independent analyst reports on the companies.
Yep. not many positves but Tambo's trading volume has been quite a bit higher recently and Baupost and TIAA CREF have built significant positions in Tambo. Hopefully that translates into something for FOG one of these days.
LOG - I believe this will occur at 22nd Jun 2023 at 4:30pm BST, which I believe will be 11:30 am Eastern Time.
I signed up and received an email that said to contact support@investormeetcompany.com.