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Market makers drop bid hard to 12.5p showing a 7.1% drop on level 2; however looks like no-one is selling!
Normal tactics to try and scare private investors to dump their shares cheaply on fear.
There are 4 different market makers offering to buy 30k shares each from you at 12.5p - says it all really.
They know how cheap this is and will have willing buyers at just above this price.
Hold!
Very low key RNS - just worded board change.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/SIS/directorate-change/16173153
Thanks for information SO - that's a great haul of RFX shares you've got there!
Also at a fabulous price.
I started to buy again for my ISA when they dropped back from 272p in June following results. Thought I'd done well getting in around 228p average..doh!!
Since then I've added more from 190-200p in my trading fund. However if I had more funds, I'd add even more at the level you've been buying at.
I really don't understand the funds trimming positions here in the last 6 months; unless its purely to cash in to pay back private investors withdrawing from funds due to general market fear / needing cash for day to day expenses / just wanting to put in bank and get 4% interest??
Whatever reason, RFX pricing is clearly an anomaly and the guys running this business are shrewd operators. I have emailed queries before and got answers back within 24 hours and also watched presentations etc.
Very comfortable sitting on a decent sized holding (for me!) here.
Great work SheffieldOwls on the buy!
I know having read posts here before. that you know this business well and obviously spot the value here.
Its just a waiting game. Eventually tide will turn and I think there will be a bull run into Xmas on most UK shares. Some of the AIM shares are currently at daft prices / earnings multiples like RFX. The City boys know this and keep shaking the tree and / or supressing share prices to add more quantity. Value will come out here, its just a matter of time.
I just find the irony that private investors generally wait till others buy and pay much higher prices; rather than seeing clear value / a bargain when its in plain sight!
If any private investors have automatic stop losses set at 399/400p, then I suggest you remove tonight..
Tomorrow you can guarantee, price will be pushed down below this level.
The shorters and funds tried today - lowest price they achieved was 401.5p, so not far off!
They will have one last push tomorrow..
I've been in this situation before - I've set my stop loss at psychological level you don' t want to go below eg 400p, got home from work and found my shares got sold at 397p on market dip, before price recovered to close at 420p...
Its a real kick in teeth, but its just a game for the professionals to squeeze money out of the small guy.
Shorters and funds will drive this below 400p tomorrow to shake out loose shares / trigger stop losses at 399/400p. Then I reckon it will recover.
Different sector and all that, but Marsdens brought out results yesterday that were generally as expected. Share dropped 5% on day, then has sprung back 5% today.
Just the meat grinder in action day after day; trying to instil fear into holders to panic sell shares, so the big boys can mop them up cheaply, normally after the market closes or during the next couple of days after an announcement,
Just my view, for what its worth
Obviously a larger selling off loading some shares - today the market makers walked the price down hard (10%) down to 30/28.5p on hardly any volume. Decent sized buys came in at 29-30p, but share price hardly lifted at all. After close market makers blended in, a 53,500 sell at 29p. These guys are always less than transparent and love their little games, don't they?..
Now the crazy thing is the business is worth just £20m now - down 80% off peak of 150p/share. Okay revenues have flatlined, margins tightened and company probably spent too much on tech centre - but worth only 20% of previous market cap??? Really??
They've also done some bold stuff, like reducing office space, headcount etc with the relocation / centralisation of business. Should pay off this year, now that's been done.
A bargain at 30p, but then there are so many ridiculously undervalued shares out there right now.
Got to be hostile takeover bid by PE at this price surely?
Just a summary of this week's Year End (to end Sept) trading update:
+ FX revenue up 8% v last year.
+Jewellery revenue up 20% v last year.
+ Pawnbroking loan book up 20% v last year. This part of business up to record revenue of £10.3m
+Precious metal buying up 50% v last year.
+ Opened 8 new stores and acquired a pawnbroker in Bexleyheath.
+ Profit before tax to be more than £10.0m (last year was £8.4m, so 19% increase in profits)
Now here's the weird thing - the business is worth just £64.0m (31.7m shares at £2.02/price per share)
That's with no debt and in the summer they declared £5.5m net cash holding.
Having made more than £10.0m profit in the year to end Sept 23, surely this is hugely undervalued??
p/e around 6x
Paid out 9.6p total dividend per share in last year (so that a return of 4.75% at share price 202p)
A screaming BUY, surely!!
Today = "the madness of markets". Virtually all stocks dragged down as US labour figures stronger than expected...
Funds drive down prices across the board using ATs. Market makers open up spreads - drive down bids hard. Push to get bids at levels where automatic stop losses are likely to kick in eg below 200pon RFX. Sure enough it becomes self fulfilling as PIs panic sell, thinking there is something wrong or just find out when they get home from work that their RFX bullet proof shares have been sold for a pittance at below 200p. Mugged off big style. Price at 200p, is 30% below summer peak price and what has changed? Nothing!
Personally I just added more at 200p; however the market makers hardly had anything to sell, so had to buy in small batches. A complete joke of a market and a day.
Importantly, they also expect the gross margin to improve by six percentage points to 43.4 per cent, reflecting several factors, including an unwinding of input costs procured at previously high prices, and the pass-through of inflationary price hikes to customers. On this basis, Venture could deliver second-half cash profit of £7.2mn, up 50 per cent on the first half, and second-half FCF of £4.2mn. It would slash net debt (ex-finance leases) from £15.5mn to £11.7mn, reducing leverage to one times the annual cash profit forecast.
Furthermore, analysts believe 2023 FCF of £6.8mn (5.4p) could rise to £8mn (6.3p) in 2024 to halve net debt to £5.3mn. The implication being a material transfer of the economic interest in the £39.2mn market capitalisation company from debt holders to shareholders. Indeed, the £10mn (8p a share) forecast deleveraging of the balance sheet equates to a quarter of Venture’s market capitalisation of £39mn.
Modestly rated
So, even if you only value the group on a modest multiple of five times cash profit to enterprise valuation, the de-gearing process combined with the forecast 14 per cent increase in cash profit to £13.2mn in 2024 supports a 50 per cent re-rating of the shares by the end of next year. The 20 per cent share price reversal since the 2022 annual results (‘A self-care specialist with a lot of potential’, 3 April 2023) is a buying opportunity.