Member Info for reefles

From the dummy trades, it doesn't appear there's much volume left to buy at 8.43p. Another £5-10k of buys and it'll tick up again... (based on guesswork and divining rods)

ODonnells - the floor recently has been 8.2 on the nose. It feels as though someone's offloading a large holding, but eking it out in tranches each day. We've had a few days (anecdotal memory) where around 3.30 / 4pm the tranche has been "used up" and the Ask bounces back up from 8.2. I think this is linked to the large settlements that we (sometimes) see going through at the end of the day. I think these go unreported as often as not, though (I think I mentioned one last Thursday, which showed up briefly, after hours, but wasn't logged)... which makes sense. As you say, most of the trades we see are actually buys, so there must be unreported sales somewhere??

I've tried to be a bit vague because of all the various NDAs! But no, the opposite, we were in green electricity and would have helped contribute to the group's ESG... but you can't get bitter, can you. (Reminds me of a certain Bill Hicks sketch...!)

Ohhh!! Thank you Longlad. ZIOC aren't on my radar, but oh how I HATE Glencore. About this time last year, I was getting from the non-binding-offer stage, to the firm-offer stage of an equity investment of £10m into my company. I would have switched from FD to CEO, the founders would have exited, the synergies would have been great. But the investor was partly owned by Glencore... who pulled the plug. There wasn't time for Plan B, so we had to wind up and let about 40 members of a great team go. Bloody Glencore. (Mutter, mutter, mutter...) Sorry that this has NO real relevance to SEED / Leap / IMG.

Yeah - fair point on opportunity cost. It's just really frustrating, right? I know that if I was working for IMG, I'd resent 44% of profits going to SEED and would wait for the buyout before pulling out all the stops on new developments. In fact, given that the valuation is likely to include DCFs based on current performance (as well as the value of IP etc.) I'd be actively encouraging Leap workers to waste money. Every extra £1 profit made by Leap at the moment is 44p to SEED, and potentially adds - say - 5x £1 to the valuation of Leap. For IMG to buy out SEED, that extra £5 on the valuation will cost IMG an extra £2.20.

That means each £1 profit for Leap yields 56p to the other owners, but is offset by the valuation multiplier, c. £2.20.

So, if the developers at Leap know ("strongly suspect") that the IMG guys will soon be their absolute bosses, they'll want to keep them happy. If IMG tell the dev's to burn money on IP that then gets written down, it's win-win for IMG. This would explain why Leap's customer base and transaction volumes have been grown successfully, but there's a suspicious drop in the conversion of this to revenue.

The IPO just feels like a hollow threat by Ed, but I can't think what would be more effective. If Leap's results continue to "look" disappointing, Ed could suggest asset stripping to the other directors: "we aren't getting a good enough return - let's sell off the IP one piece at a time". He'd need some calculations showing that this was the best return on the assets (easy enough to do, if results are being artificially depressed, currently) and THAT would get IMG to pull their finger out and make a realistic offer. (All IMHO, of course.)

Doggo / Gooner - YES! I agree. I don't understand the sentiment of "the sooner the better", which completely flies in the face of any negotiation technique. We own a large chunk of a company whose value is hard to measure, but is likely maximised in the hands of its other current owners. If Ed was expressly saying he wanted to sell SEED's stake to IMG, we'd be guaranteed to be ripped off. The only way he can get close to a decent value is to call the bluff of IMG when they say they aren't interested, and harp on about an IPO. Why on earth would Leap want / need an IPO?! Ed would just get repeatedly outvoted. So, it's a timing game. IMG will want to buy when results are poor; SEED will want to sell at a point of strength. There will likely be operational manipulation and window dressing alongside this. IMG would want things to look bleak and make a deal just before the next big game launch / announcement of profits. SEED need to look like they aren't desperate. I don't believe Ed making references to Leap's desire for an IPO means anything more than him saying... "hello, it's nice to be here".

On google finance yesterday, a second trade at 8.135 was shown. One at 15:53, one at 16:30. On the detailed version of the chart, where trade volumes are shown, the 16:30 trade was not showing (which is commonplace for late settlements / UTs etc.) so I was wondering whether it was a whopper or not. And... as Seavy says, I'm worried it might have been a g-g-g-ghooost!

Happy Friday everyone. Fingers crossed for a finish to the week as blue as any sapphire or diazepam. Tempers seem to be a little frayed at the moment, but we do still all love each other - right? If there isn't much volume traded today, maybe we could all tell each other ghost stories for a change, before jumping down each other's throats??

(And on a practical note - does anyone have details of a trade yesterday at 16:30 that only shows on sites without volume?)

Odonnell - it was definitely a buy. I was sat waiting for trades to come in and putting dummy trades through Halifax, trying to work out what was going on. Most of the trades shown as Sells this afternoon were Buys. The floor seemed to be 8.2 on Ask and then it started to climb again - Halifax showing 8.9 - just after asking 8.2099. Then the big buy was listed. Note also the after hours settlement. Whatever's going on feels somehow artificial and will surely end soon.

Tonight I might pray... and I'll plead
that people will see what we see'd
when we bought-in undervalue
and knew it would turn blue...
because today was NOT what we need.

Oh Barwickman - was that 242k buy just now... you? If so, you rascal! Very jealous - well done. GLA

Haha - I'm flattered to be asked, given how bad my judgement has been recently, e.g. consolidating all my savings and holdings into SEED, shortly before watching the SP go into freefall! I've got over 500k shares now and am still looking behind the sofa to keep topping up while the Ask is below my average. (ARGH!!)

But on the Greta tweet, I would go heavily on "maybe there's merit, but I don't think it's relevant to anything whatsoever". It depends how you want to think of Greta. To me, she's a young girl who has kept a very important issue in people's minds, more than it otherwise would have been. That's all there is to it. I studied political power networks at uni, (PPE), and they're bloody complicated. Greta is not masterminding some global conspiracy - she's a child - and literally all politicians, investors, influencers etc. are subject to manipulation. As long as her message stays relevant, I don't care whether she spends time with someone who works for a charity that gets some of its funding from the Bill Gates Foundation...! I've worked for charities that were established from money made in the slave trade. I've worked for a green energy company whose main creditor was BP. None of us are many degrees of separation away from a bad influence of some sort!

I think Greta gets far too much stick - most of what she says is at least factual, whereas that article is just nonsense. As I've said on here before, SEED's section of the supply chain for plant growth is Northern Leaf. Northern Leaf are on Jersey. Jersey's electricity is 40% hydro and 60% nuclear. It's pretty clean and very cheap.

(Also, while it's bleak, the hydroponic technologies and techniques that are developed by the industry will be really important in future if climate change continues as is, as some regions will become far more arid etc. and need the expertise in rapid growth for food production.)

I think Greta gets far too much stick - most of what she says is at least factual, whereas that article is just nonsense. As I've said on here before, SEED's section of the supply chain for plant growth is Northern Leaf. Northern Leaf are on Jersey. Jersey's electricity is 40% hydro and 60% nuclear. It's pretty clean and very cheap.

(Also, while it's bleak, the hydroponic technologies and techniques that are developed by the industry will be really important in future if climate change continues as is, as some regions will become far more arid etc. and need the expertise in rapid growth for food production.)

A couple of big, cheap sales at reducing value... but the Ask seems to be stuck at 8.68. Odd, eh...?!

(And I know I post a lot of dross on here when I'm bored, but please read the speaker list for this event... it's Ed, it's Lorne, it's Northern Leaf, it's the whole damn gang. If there was any shred of reality in my earlier comment ~ "it feels like they're being suspiciously quiet till they've sorted their own shares out, then will bring in the real investors"... then I think this is a sign of when they might start bringing in those investors!)

Dear friends - I'd like to invite you all to a party! RSVP and see you there. (Bring presents.)

https://www.lsegissuerservices.com/spark/cannabis-capital-markets-forum-2021

Longlad - I don't wear a tin foil hat, but it does seem like it's in someone's interest to keep the share price low at the moment. Reap mentions Lorne's position at Yooma and investment in SEED. We know Ed doesn't have any shares, but wants some. Am I right in the thinking there has been no declaration to say he has share options?? Why not? Surely that would be normal, not seen as insider trading. Jim Mellon appears to be shifting a holding from under his name to under his umbrella. And all the while, there seems to be very little effort put into publicising the fund. In fact, a name change without a campaign behind it is practically a disguise. The interviews Ed has done have probably downplayed things - we all heard him correct the comment on Leap's sale from "next month" to "over the coming months in future". I didn't post the Iggy Pop track for nothing, yesterday!

I think all the NEDs will bring in some investor friends of theirs as soon as the share-holding musical chairs has been played out by all the friends that sit across this group of investments. HUGE POTENTIAL HERE SOON, but maybe not today. (All made up entirely.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7NuaK29J1fM

There have been some pretty weird trades today, stretching the spread on thin volumes. I can't fathom it, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see a big UT buy go through this evening. If someone's shifting holdings around, ahead of the Yooma listing, they'd be cutting it tight to leave it till Monday...