Member Info for reefles

Brillo - I'd like to hear my biog, as assessed by the BB then, please.

I feel like I DO need to post. As catharsis. And I enjoy both of your contributions... it just makes me sad when you argue.

Could there be a link to OpenBet...? As in, if IMG had picked up Leap with pocket change, would it have set a precedent which meant OpenBet could push for $2bn instead of $1.2bn, using comparable metrics? Or perhaps, when looking at the DCFs in order to value OpenBet, it was beneficial for Leap to NOT be within the Endeavour family, as it would show a greater profitability of the OpenBet acquisition and therefore a higher price?? Easier to get the big deals done first, then spend the pocket change? I don't know. I feel like something's going on, but it seems to defy logic.

Troll, I mean this as "agreement", not to be patronising... but I think every single one of us on here believe Ed's IPO rumblings are a means to expedite a sale to IMG.

(Barwick - I think your point to 888 about Ed might be... the same point as 888 was making?? Maybe not. Most of this week, when looking at the share trades, I have felt like I have NO IDEA what is happening. What is happening?! Answers on a postcard, please.)

Does anyone have any insight about the corporate structure, e.g. is it technically Fralis / Leap that would be sold, and are there drag-along / tag-along clauses that would be triggered by a 66% holding....??? (As in, can IMG force a 100% buy-out of Leap, if SEED agree to sell them the 44%?)

I love you, O'Donnell...!

Enjoy the Ryder Cup. If you've recently been working in the energy supply industry, it does feel a bit like total shutdown!! (It wasn't us who got it wrong, by the way, if I hear Ofgem saying one more time "we won't reward failure", when that is literally what they do every time they run their internal payroll....!)

I've been lucky and had a few very nice job offers, since, but I've just been for an interview at a C&C woodcutting company - driving past an empty petrol station - and the warehouses were piled up with completed glamping pods / shepherd's huts etc. that are waiting for haulage; also with raw stock, as the supply chain is so unreliably... and they can't meet demand because their new warehouse has been idle for two months because they can't get anyone to install the electric meters.

Is the Ryder Cup golf...?? Never thought it was a real thing.

Quint - somewhat agree re Ed's temperament. I do think he knows what he's doing, I just wish he could explain it as well as Fleta Solomon. (Even the little things, like I added both Ed and Fleta on Linkedin. Ed ignored the request; Fleta accepted and sent me a personalised note back, thanking me for my interest etc.)

I mentioned a scenario that I'd run on my tracker yesterday, assuming modest growth in most investments (broadly 10% across the board over six months) and factoring in opex, interest on loan notes, discount on conversion (assuming all the planned IPOs go ahead). If Leap - as a whole - floated for £50m... that gets Ed to £40m NAV for SEED by Feb / March 2022. There are a number of things that could nudge us closer to £50m, and I don't think slippage of 3months is too bad. "£50m by the end of the year" is not ludicrous, in my opinion.

(And yes Barwy, I know we need to wave goodbye to Leap, it just feels like a shame. Everyone seems desperate to get rid of it, and we need the cash, but at the same time I'll be sorry not to have it in the portfolio...)

I've always taken Leap with a pinch of salt. It was a risk-weighted part of the attraction for me, as was Mellon's stake in FFWD, but it was mainly the CBD interests (particularly that SEED had recognised the potential of Northern Leaf - even if they were capped at £600k due to the oversubscription). I've even argued on here that we should keep Leap for the divi's when it hits profit - why sell off one of our best assets?! (Although that argument was slightly facetious.)

If you ignore Leap, though, our listed stocks are pretty much at market value and the convertible loans aren't large enough in any one company to be a huge attraction. The portfolio could be very attractive to an institutional investor, but if I were an individual looking at SEED now... I might go straight into LGP instead.

I can only imagine the sellers yesterday were disappointed day traders who were looking for a quick bump from a Leap announcement, and - faced with waiting six months - got out at a loss to punt their cash on crypto or something. Not the kind of investors we need. I think we've just got to hang on until we've got liquidity from Leap (agree a raise would be devastatingly dilutive), then we'll get the investments that will drive decent daily volumes.

I hope those people are right, who think Ed is drawing a buyer out of the woodwork by talking the IPO game. He's done well to wait until Leap has grown, its market has grown, there are precedent prices in the sector, and the potential acquirers have had strong results. It's absolutely realistic that, as they work up valuations for an IPO, this forms the due diligence for a quick sale.

Guessing today will be a quiet one, though... or will we have a mysterious leg up at EOD...??

Well I think the 30% discount would close if all those (very prudent!) predictions come good. My avg. is around 8.6p but I haven't been here long (since Feb / March?). I'm pretty confident in an SP of at least 17.2p against a NAV / share of 19.4p by March, giving me a comfy 100% return in a year. Obviously new investors today have been even more lucky...!

Yeah absolutely - it was just a scenario in response to O'Donnell's question. I've quickly knocked up a scenario which looks forward six months with very prudent returns. It assumes opex of £1m; IPOs of the companies where we have convertible loans (accruing interest, then showing discount on buy-in price, then a growth of 10%); growth of 10% in listed and unlisted holdings (LGP, Yooma, Eurox, Portage, Vemo... but with Juve' left unchanged); and Leap shown as floating for £50m total, but with us getting a 15% discount on the buy-in. I think that's all pretty reasonable, and shows a NAV / share of 19.4p by March 2022.

https://we.tl/t-OO2NY5zKCw

You're welcome to download / play around with this tracker. To give SEED a NAV of £50m total, with all other investments left unchanged, requires our holding in Leap to be worth c. £35m. With this adjustment, it would make the current NAV / share = 23.7p

He was referring to SEED, when asked about his £50m by yearend prediction. It was hypothetical.

It was all good. It was.

I'm disappointed by their presentation standards. One of the reasons I rate LGP so highly is Fleta Solomon. She knows how to pitch her company. You immediately like her, but she follows a narrative agenda that leaves no doubt about the direction of travel. Ed is doing good work, but comes across as dismissive and distant. The Chair at the end, saying how tense it had been getting the technology to work...?! That just sounds embarrassing now. Even their survey about how shareholders thought the meeting had gone contained typos. ("What is your perspective on the companies share price?") It's not important, unless you already have a credibility problem and are trying to boost confidence.

Still, though, it was all good news.

Ed has just made a wonderfully "him" comment, which paraphrases as "shareholders need to pipe down, we're too busy to talk to them; we're busy growing the NAV... which is where the real value is". Errr... well, is it? What happened to something's value being what someone will pay for it. Ed may be doing a good job on paper, but he needs to get on his "soap box" now!

Started 10.30, Scoobs: https://presentations.investormeetcompany.com/conferences/37546bc68d34/bigroom

You need to have registered on the SEED website.

According to my calc's, they would have had £2.129m by now - if there were no running costs at all between March and Sept. (Based on March accts and public deals since.) Doesn't tally with the running costs Ol' Lancey has described, but I guess there's movement in working capital balances with advisors...??

Reefles is correct...

Not something you read every day on this BB, and a good reason to love the O'Donnells!

But, as we all get geared up for the buying frenzy (I can see the SP getting into the giddy heights of - say - 8.4p this week!!) let me start the cheerleading by saying: Give me an L... give me a G... give me a P (please Bob); what does it spell?!

Success. It spells success. Figuratively.

I’ve asked for clarification why we have 4.5% of Yooma when we should have > 5% if the strategic investor didn’t exercise their options

Thanks Doggo, (assuming that isn't a diluted calc. including the expired options.) It's just a surprise that 4.5% is the figure SEED said we would hold if the strategic investor put another £5 into Yooma, which they haven't.