I think you have to register on the ICE data website.
Puts give you the option to sell a set no. of shares shares at a specific price on or by a specific date in the future. Calls give you the option to buy. There’s no such thing as far as I know as a “put call”.
Well, I can’t think of much that the Chinese produce that the USA needs either. They just produce it cheaper, because labour is cheaper and they spend less on R&D, since they pinch technology from foreign companies as a condition of doing business in China. President Trump is right to want to stop this. Re tariffs: if US consumers are happy to pay 25% (or whatever the tariff is) more for Chinese products, then it’s a tax on the US consumer, paid to the US Government. If they cut back on buying Chinese goods, the Chinese exporters suffer lower sales and will be tempted to reduce prices to keep their customers. The US Government still gets the tariffs on whatever is imported to the US. US companies will eventually review whether it makes sense to produce in China, rather than the US. President Trump may decide next to rule that US companies bring back their $1.5trillion (or whatever it is) of cash from untaxed foreign income. Another potential tax windfall. I’m surprised he hasn’t done it already. In any case, his tax take is going to look pretty good from just the current tariffs, as he’s pointed out. Domestic tax cuts before the election next year, anyone?
Causal: I hope I’ve not made too much of this. Most of the copper company shares appear to be a bit weaker today, with the copper price.
300-odd of the puts may well be part of a strangle transaction. That leaves more than 1500 straight puts. I can’t think of a reason why someone would take such a large position if he’s not expecting a fall. The options are exercisable at an average price just above 400, by 20 December. It may be someone just taking a gamble on a fall in the copper price. If so, it’s a good way of doing it but any fall will have to be a big one to justify the gamble.
Aether: they’re on the ICE website, so have been dealt on the exchange. I imagine an institution has written the puts. There’s no way of knowing who’s bought them, as far as I know. It may not mean anything, I don’t know. I haven’t seen volume like this before, as far as I can recall, that’s all. Thought it was worth mentioning.
Autonomy1: yes, you may be right about the motive behind these puts. Whoever it is, however, is expecting Kaz to fall, not necessarily the index or other stocks. As a relatively volatile stock, Kaz options are generally more expensive than options in the index or in FTSE100 stocks.
I agree, it may be nothing, I merely thought it was interesting and worth sharing.
Autonomy1: you were right. There’s no IMS, unless the presentation, which is just a reiteration of the half year presentation, is what they referred to as an IMS. Still, it’s a pretty good set of figures, particularly from Bozshakol. Their initial work at Baimskaya must be promising, their forecasts are very favourable. No cash flow data and they are predicting slightly lower production at Bozshakol and Aktogay owing to maintenance requirements, but still meeting their targets. Short term it’s about the copper price. On a six month view, it’s about Baimskaya as well. The two are linked, Baimskaya will be easier and cheaper to finance with a higher copper price at the negotiating stage.
RE: Kaz interim results on thursday23 Oct 2019 09:40
I don’t think they’ll have any difficulty paying off the loans which come due next year. Even if their earnings were negative, DBK would be likely to fund them, in view of the increased cash flows to come from the big new investment in Aktogay. Baimskaya is different, it’s not a vital Kazakhstan interest and the Kazakhstan government may therefore be less keen to lend money for its development. I think it’s possible Baimskaya will be project financed, and therefore its funding will not appear on the Kaz balance sheet. If such an arrangement is announced next year, shareholders may well perceive lower risk in Kaz, albeit with reduced potential rewards if the project is successful.
RE: Kaz interim results on thursday22 Oct 2019 12:00
Autonomy1: I’ve looked at the last 2 years’ 3rd quarter reports. Last year there was no IMS and it was essentially a production report, such as you are expecting on Thursday. The previous year’s 3rd quarter report did include an IMS and was twice as long. It included debt and cash flow data. Their website says that there will be an IMS on Thursday. That’s what I’m going by, but you may be right.
Sorry about that, it was supposed to be just the 3rd quarter and IMS on 24 October. If you scroll down, you’ll find it. The IMS normally includes a statement on current trading, which should include comment on capex, debt and trading conditions.
Figures due next Thursday. In view of the copper price since the previous figures and the warning then about raised capex in the second half, it’s unlikely the share price will benefit from the announcement, surely? It may need a higher copper price to sustain the current share price level.
Autonomy1: your earlier post may be proved right on Monday on further consideration of what has been announced. It’s not a deal, is it? It doesn’t even touch on the important issues, it’s just the Chinese buying more US foodstuffs (which they need to do anyway) and the US delaying further tariffs. The trade dispute is going to rumble on for the foreseeable future.
Still, the Michigan consumer confidence survey came in much better than expected, which justifies a decent recovery from the recent market weakness.