Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Aerial magnetic anomalies aren't really enough to get anyone excited but I think the key here is the first shipment being on schedule. Made a small top up today on this basis. News of the first payment hitting the bank account (hopefully in time for Christmas) will be very, very interesting.

Someone happily hoovering up at 13p keeping the upward momentum. Looks like 15p is a real possibility by Christmas Shareminator. Thanks Juxtapose for the industry update, seems fundamentals are supporting PGM (for the short term anyway) PS: SLP delivered $8.9m profit after tax in 2017 and I think will be at least 50% higher this year. How much did JLP make? I can't be bothered to look but I'm pretty sure its negative. How much is it going to make? Does anyone know (including their BoD)?

I prefer the steady, humble overdelivery of the SLP board and the excellent guidance on production, costs and capex to the constant ramping/lack of detailed guidance from the Chuckle Brothers over at JLP Ticking up today nicely, 12.50 paid, current levels not seen since Feb. Next stop 13p, slow and steady

My other holdings have been a wall of misery this last week but SLP hanging in there. i've been topping up here gradually over the last couple of months in anticipation of a transformational year next year. Rand basket today at a 2 year high, not far off in USD. Rh roaring back to life. Rand has partially decoupled from the platinum price over the last couple of weeks and is around 1 year lows. All the starts are aligning here and remember... EV/EBITDA<2, ignoring cash 60% discount to book value 1 year forward P/E of 3 (!!!) Payout ratio of 30% would give a dividend of yield of 10% Dont trust consensus, its hopelessly out of date but target price of $0.26 has the right idea

From Canaccord....ha! https://www.digitallook.com/news/broker-recommendations/wednesday-broker-round-up--2973958.html On a more serious note, positive update from Edison at 80p http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/game-digital899902/full

Shareminator implied refining fees have been coming down for the last 4 quarters and the most recent quarter seemed to be exceptionally low. The price that SLP quote is before processing but if you compare this to the net realised basket the gap to market is narrowing implying a lower processing charge. It may also be a fixed charge per oz which means as price rise this will further support margins. Regarding production, if Q1 was 16.6koz and full year is 75koz including Phoenix then implied Q2-Q4 SDO production is 17.8koz per quarter. Assuming a marginal ramp up would weight production to back end and would support further growth in SDO production in 2019. All in all over the last week I have upgraded my cash flow forecast for SLP and agree 100% this will be throwing off cash at spot. Maybe a touch of optimism but I think they can afford a 10% divi over the next 12 months

Some chat on Vox today about GMD from Conor Campbell from Spreadex. Said there was a lot of interest from clients (didn't say whether long or short) Highlighted the risks to Game from Amazon and the possibility that Game may become the Blockbuster of gaming. It doesn't seem like a completely unrealistic idea for Game to separate the esports division in some form: given the comment about evaluating strategic options at trading update, the fact that revenue has grown �6.9m to �11.6m over 12 months and the size of the potential market this division could be worth 5x revenue without making a profit....

Thanks Matrix this all makes sense now: The difference between the price received and my calculated basket has narrowed substantially this qtr. At production of 16589oz and revenue of $14.1m the received basket is $850/oz. My calculated market basket is $958.8, implying an 11% refining fee. For the previous qtr the same method gives a price received of $735 versus market basket of $917 and discount of 20%. The refining cost per oz over the previous 4 quarters is as follows 109, 182, 172, 235. All other things equal, Q2 would be $1.1m higher on revenue and EBITDA, due to higher PGM and ZAR depreciation...6% increase in EBITDA margin before even factoring in benefit of Echo cash cost reduction Any thoughts as to production phasing for Q2-Q4 in order to get us to 75koz for the full year so I can complete my full year forecast? I'm thinking something like Q1:16.6, Q2:17.9, Q3:19.3, Q4:21.3. Seems aggressive but how else do we get to 75koz?

Hey LW I dumped the remainder of my holding last minute on Friday when I finally realised that I didn't have a clue on what is driving this on a short term basis. Hitting break even after the last few weeks of gut wrenching falls and rises was a win for me so I am also waiting from the sidelines for a clear signal on which way this will move over the longer term

Middle East instability has probably lead to some profit taking,This has run very hard over the last year and is one of the top performers in the 100 so would be a good candidate to take some profits. Well that was my thinking anyway when I reduced last week. There are often corrections in this stock but this is an unusually large one at over 10% in a short space of time which suggests that its more fundamental than technical

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-10/mysterious-4-million-ounces-of-gold-trades-trigger-price-plunge

Close tomorrow at 2.42. No more positive surprises from US reporting season and lower US indices will support PMs and risk off over the next week.

I sold half at 238. Silver lost momentum all day and anything could happen overnight. This rarely seems to put on 2 good days in a row. I swore to myself I would bank something from this after this hit 220.

Thanks for sharing the research guys. I just started a new job so not as much time anymore for my own research. Happy with Phoenix and makes emphasises the clarity of the strategy. I feel that that if there are any more of these dumps around SLP will find them. There must be very few shares available. Whenever there is a �10k order being filled I cant get anything for less than 11.90). I think that pressure is building for this to track upwards in line with the current uptick in the PGM basket.

Thanks Matrix. Good day for PGMs, Pd at 1010 and Pt up a bit. MMs seem bored today an playing with the bid on almost no trade. Ask is still at 11.50. So we have no news until Jan... Will this drift lower?

Good news that this has been completed on time. I like that they are cracking on and getting 5.5koz out this year. Phoenix also seems to have come with tax losses which is handy. Looking forward to seeing the prill splits (hopefully lots of palladium!) and the first quarter of production with cash cost information. They are some bold claims about cash cost reduction but SLP seems to be the expert in PGM recovery from chrome tailings and the weak rand is a tailwind so we will see. I also note that the USD acquisition price fell from the initial announced value of $6.6m to $6.3m due to depreciation of the rand. If they have a USD account thats a 5% benefit.

Noggers its because HOC trades on a higher P/E than most of the other PM miners, without the quality of Fresnillo or Randgold

Bwin's market cap was well over double that of GVC when GVCs bid was successful. I have no doubt that mgmt are motivated to deal by synergies and are not interested in retail. It would benefit the GVC if the FOBT limit was dropped to �2 as they could shut down the stores and focus on core online and sports

Very off topic but thanks for the tip Shareminator. I've got a number of fairly speculative dirt companies in the portfolio but could would love to add some more cobalt. I'll do some diligence and see how it looks. I'll return the favour: my most recent addition was Horizonte Min. They are sitting on a huge nickel deposit, currently doing FS for construction plan. I think nickel could double over the next 12 months. The price nearly hit 50,000 before EVs even existed. They are only a �50m market cap which seems crazy cheap for a tier one nickel deposit It feels like we are in the midst of a commodity run, many metals at multi year highs, structural changes brought on by EVs and technology are supporting nickel, cobalt, lithium and rare earths prices. PMs doing well and oil even looks to be on the up...a lot of AIM explorers are on fire at the moment...all the signs are there...only uranium is missing out

The market also doesn't like one of the directors offloading 400,000 shares last week