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Thanks guys, also great to see the big Euro funds buying in with our new non-exec Colleen Sullivan heading up the newly created division of Brevan Howard. https://www.reuters.com/technology/brevan-howard-expands-further-into-crypto-2021-09-13/
Thanks to Jabberba for finding this
Great find Jabba, thanks
Let's not understate how important this Colleen Sullivan news is.
Morning all, had worse days.
There is a reason we hodl.
Next few months should be very good indeed.
ATB fellow Argonauts,
RC
Good morning all,
Great thread from a great initial post from 600T.
Completely agree it is important we remind ourselves why we chose Argo in the first place, ie blockchain not just bitcoin and then when we watch a little Raoul Pal we see how huge this whole space will become.
ARB is in my opinion far from the ST trading vehicle is often used for and a genuine LT hold for step change gains.
Looking like a good week and month ahead.
ATB all
RC
Dear TMT,
And like many here, I have also enjoyed your considered and independent thinking posts. Your have brought much to this board.
Wishing you are your family all the very best for the future.
RC
Interesting thread. I agree we need more clarity on this loan and am expecting more news re new machines / deal for which is, as the-chuz says is holding us back at the moment.
PW clearly has a lot of plates spinning and due to his previous transparent approach has opened himself up to calls for more transparency. In other markets / companies I am not sure anyone would expect to know so much. But he made his bed.
Re ETH, I agree with you K3VMC re GG. That said I do still think it will fly in the near term (6 months) given the demand / supply issue. @K3VMC what is your view re GG viewing ETH as a security (which is what I assume you mean?). What do you think this means for ETH longer term?
long notice you are back. care to comment?
drlong
19 days ago you posted on this board that “OMI with double its SP minimum within 3 weeks” and directed people to go and buy some.
The SP then was 17.75p
Today it is currently 16.5p
Classic long
Those of us hoping to see things turning around have been sadly disappointed.
I was not as optimistic as Pearls but even i have been shocked at the scale of the poor performance here.
Pearls i hope you keep positive. It is only money after all. If you do get a bit down in the mouth, i would recommend getting a bike - a nice bike ride in the country does wonders to get rid of any worries.
ATB dear
RC
Thanks to those selflessly informing us of other shares they are invested in.
And for Argobull doing the due diligence that perhaps some had not.
Next real resistance for BTC $48k with a pause and little fight at $45k according to many TAs but WTFDIK.
Hopefully this acts as confirmation that the BTC bull run continues and as such brings back those previous ARB holders who sold out and also some new ones.
The business is stronger now, the prospects better and the plan clearer.
I am glad I am not out over the weekend ;)
(oh and even more glad I haven't been shorting BTC or ARB. Ouchy).
Jerry & Loggy spot on - far too many cryptos and most are terrible with upcapped supplies.
Antigua agree regulation required and welcomed by serious investors. This is happening and this week Gary Gensler himself appeared to draw a moat around Bitcoin in the remarks, saying that after his time researching cryptocurrency at MIT, “I came to believe that, though there was a lot of hype masquerading as reality in the crypto field, [Satoshi] Nakamoto’s innovation is real. Further, it has been and could continue to be a catalyst for change in the fields of finance and money.”
Jiffybag sorry but I you are incorrect when you say you cannot buy anything with it. BTC is accepted by many places in the US, across Asia and some in UK now. And El Salvador is the first country to test it as an alternative currency. Others in S America considering - Uruguay, Columbia - and even Spain have proposed a bill allowing mortgage payments in it. Apple, Visa, Mastercard, Amazon all exploring payment options.
And whilst others such as Doge may be a pyramid scheme, BTC is certainly not. Quite the opposite and perfectly aligned to Austrian economic theory (alongside Gold theoretically). As you correctly state supply is capped at 21m and actually only 3m of the 18.7m mined to date are in free circulation now in terms of availability on exchanges. Many commentators talking of a real supply issue within 12 months.
Other developments in Nov-21 (Taproot) will further enhance BTC as a store a value allowing people to build a layer 2 onto BTC itself. In is very new tech and as such still developing, but one simple example is as follows: if you buy a house with it, the contract and all legal ownership docs could be stored on the blockchain. Available only to those who have rights to it but importantly, immediately resolving any ownership issues / forged docs later down the line which does happen.
So lots happening in the space. Much is rubbish and will fail but much will also work and change how we use money. A bit like the early days of the internet there were good and bad actors but it has changed our lives forever.
Many of us could never envisage banking online 15 years ago, now who would write a cheque? Likewise ecommerce. Many of us could never think of the weekly shop online, now many would not go back. Times change.
Could you pls come back and predict $35k btc and 80p ARB?
That is the only surefire way we know we'll go to $46k BTC and 160p ARB
Reading an interesting article earlier re potential regulation this text from it pleased me…
“
Gensler himself appeared to draw a moat around Bitcoin in the remarks, saying that after his time researching cryptocurrency at MIT, “I came to believe that, though there was a lot of hype masquerading as reality in the crypto field, [Satoshi] Nakamoto’s innovation is real. Further, it has been and could continue to be a catalyst for change in the fields of finance and money.”
On CNBC today, Gensler even went so far as to retell Bitcoin’s origin story and conclude “that part of it is okay” – strongly signalling he does not consider bitcoin a security. Gensler has also laid out a pathway to a long-dreamed-of Bitcoin ETF.”
Any news on results?
Crazy day for the SP today. Huge volume
Completely agree with this thread theme - regulation and taxation is good long term. Gensler defo a positive for the long term and certainly agree the many rich and powerful invested will ensure BTC succeeds now.
It always amazes me how some seem to think politicians run the world. They play a large part of course, but they are funded by the super rich behind the scenes and it is these who decide who gets to run or not. Agreements and expectations will be planned way before the politicians get to take their seats and no one upsets their big donors.
“A prediction about the direction of the stock market tells you nothing about where stocks are headed, but a whole lot about the person doing the predicting.”
— Warren Buffett
We have often spent time looking at fair market value and debated what might be a reasonable mcap by year end.
For comparison i happened to be taking a look at vegan burger co Beyond Meat earlier:
Mcap $7.8bn
Q1 revenue $108m and gross Profit $33m
So assuming some growth across the year lets say $500m revenue and $170m profit on c $8bn mcap.
Compare to ARB
Mcap currently $715m (so less than 1/10th beyond meat)
Rev forecast yr end on btc hodl alone = 2,500 coins x $40k super conservative = $100m Rev. Est gross profit/liquidity = $70m.
So c 40% profitability on 9% the mcap.
And if btc were to rise to the expected $100k, then you get to almost identical profit/liquidity on 1/10th the mcap.
Whether ARB is undervalued, Beyond Meat overvalued or both for each to decide. It does show what can happen to a stock when it is hot.
And we have PW with Michael Saylor tomorrow. Hope it is good.
ATB
V much looking forward to this. Places ARB right in the big time just as BTC shows its strength and we build towards readiness for Nasdaq. Be interesting to see if that gets mentioned at all.
“I bet there’s increased trading In the shares a day or two before these results…”
It is not actually possible for there to be a decrease in trading vol though is it?