Afternoon all,
Been away for a while. Did I miss anything?
RC
Typical s-curve adoption/penetration levels mean that it normally takes as long for tech to go from 10-90% as it did 0-10%.
It took BTC 2009-2019 to get to 10%. This should mean 90% penetration by 2029 bit of course it will not be a straight walk up.
Given the country adoption and increasing clarity on regulation from GG/SEC it does seem on target to me.
ARB has no doubt had a tough 10 months bit if we are looking at quarters and years rather than days and weeks then imho it should come good for us.
Personally not posting because zoning out and enjoying life (or trying to) but do remain very invested.
ATB
All money requires people to believe in it and things change - shells, gold and silver coins, paper money, digital money.
We had the agricultural revolution, the industrial revolution and now the technological revolution. This has changed how we communicate with each other and also commerce, with banking and stores of value the next chapter imo.
Of course as with any new invention there are teething problems but the benefits (transparent blockchain, limited supply, divisibility, uniformity, durability, portability) far outweigh the faults imo.
It has been attacked and attacked time and again but still survives. Gary Gensler recognises it and has approved a futures etf.
Big difference between BTC and many of the meme coins of course.
Yep agree AB.
LT a pull back to these levels for btc is good given it should extend the bull run and it could end up running all of 2022,
My read on that is her referring to a K shaped recovery and thus stagflation. Inflation, unemployment and limited economic growth plus some deflation caused by technological advancement, eg electric cars will be much cheaper than petrol in a few years.
Certainly agree ARK have had a tough recent time after a stella period previously, thus 2022 and 2023 will be big for them
13000 alts currently
Agree 90%+ will fail
They def need a utility
For me BTC is money/value and will always be the leader, ETH is the clear market leader as the ‘oil’ or ‘roads’ for most of the Dapps currently. Things such as Avax or Sol have a utility in terms of defi, speed etc but the trichotomy of security, speed and scalability arguably remains
Hi CT, certainly agree re RP, who I think has taken big positions in a number of alts, has predicted ETRH $15k by year end and is very hyperbolic. MS is at least consistent. He backs his thoughts with pure interlectual thinking, ie the most efficient 'money' doesn't actually have a utility. Saw him say that this week. Interesting theory and contrary to austrian economic theory.
I would also chuck in PlanB who has lost a lot of respect since he has started quoting his follower base and how right he has been with the floors. until he wasn;t and will not be again.
So yes, agree, they will both be discredited if this all fails. I just happen to think they are early in their thinking. They can see it and expect others to see it as well. but it might take more time given most people are worrying about how to pay for xmas not whether to buy some BTC, a stock in a BTC miner or an Alt coin.
I would also add Lyn Alden to any reading list - less hyperbolic than the Raoul Pal's of this world (although I do love his optimism). More detail and very reassuring as to where BTC and thus ARB is heading in 2022 and beyond...
https://www.lynalden.com/investing-newsletter/
Completely agree - these prices are getting very attractive IF you believe in BTC and wider crypto with a view to the next halving and beyond.
If you don't or are unsure, it might be panic time.
Never has DYOR (and thus pretty much ignore these BBs) been more appropriate.
I find this paper worth a read when trying to understand fundamentals https://medium.com/efficient-frontier/on-austrian-economics-and-bitcoin-15051a28820d
Yes have read this from her before. she sees BTC and ETH as safe haven assets in times of trouble, and given the inflation proofing etc of BTC one would think so, however we also see many retail panicking and selling when markets fall.
So in my very humble opinion, I agree with CW's pov but with a lag, ie people sell at times of trouble and then buy back into btc first before riskier stocks for example.
BWTFDIK
wow. well done. hope you feel better for telling us.
Thanks DabbyDoe, still here, check in fairly regularly but not had a lot to add of late. No point engaging when the bb goes a certain way.
Been a tough few months for us retail but i am increasingly convinced 2021 will actually go down as a btc accumulation year, rather than a year of major gains and as such 2022 will be much more of a btc growth yr.
That said even if it only repeats we get to $130k from here and thus ARB (should) get back above £3.
We just need to have (more) patience.
Good to see so many holding strong
ATB
RC
Highly doubtful it is him imo. He’s been claiming this for years and never managed to prove it.
That said, seems he was involved to some degree v early. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Agree Money-nvr-sleeps - can only be the nas bell. Ignore amazing fundamentals and just go with the ringing of a bell.
Not complaining though, hopefully we shall see some gains in the coming weeks.
Completely agree with Skippy
I work in the industry and the only one of the big groups that is interesting, differentiated or indeed that anyone is worried about, is S4.
Sorrell will get the best talent. He still very much seems on a mission to me.
Yes
Careful Stovepipe, hope you have a helmet on if you are going to mention BTC on here!
Many here are unwilling to even research it and thus do not understand it is seen as an even better inflation hedge than gold / gold stocks for many.
It is far easier to blame dark forces, market manipulation and all kinds of conspiracy theories, than to look at the evident macro picture, ie BTC is attracting large investment from millennials who are reaching peak earning power and understand the supply cap and the global banks, treasuries, sovereign funds and family offices are now coming in.
Many here predicated BTC to $20k when it was at $30k a few months back. Some even said they wanted those invested to lose money. It is now $67k.
Clearly many here know a lot about gold and gold mining but imo most should do some research before commenting on BTC.
Good days all
https://www.danheld.com/blog/2019/1/6/hodlers-are-the-revolutionaries
Full article above. Worth a cup of coffee and a read imo
“Holding bitcoin is the exact opposite of speculation. A trade can be called speculative when the incentives for buying and selling is merely based on market sentiment. You hope to sell the product for profit despite the fact that it did not accrue any intrinsic value for society over the holding period.Holding of money does not have this downside, rather the opposite is true. By holding money you invest in the economy as a whole. Every time you choose to retain money you decrease the available amount in circulation…This leads to the increase of purchasing power per unit of that money. The result is that prices fall and all participants in that economy become wealthier. By holding Bitcoin the price per unit increases. The more people hold Bitcoin in the long run, the more volatility drops towards a gradual increase in price. This convergence towards a stable increase in price makes Bitcoin more attractive to new audiences, creating a feedback loop.”?—?Willem_VdBergh
well it happened to Hut8
Quiet period ends Monday. I am expecting some news from the team, let's see.
And of course given an impending new BTC ATH we may start to get some new investor interest