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Monet2, the problem. Is that line was in an article reposted by the official 88e Twitter account. Shows utter contempt for shareholders. Timing of placing shows they were not willing to present further findings of flow tests in a webinar to persuade investors the market got it wrong. Poor form all round and I genuinely feel sorry for those sat in further losses.
Wow Taximan, what a whopper of a line that is. I guess they don't say fully develop but grossly misleading never the less.
Good to see they qualified the statement regards natural lift to just the SFS. Although this still goes against previous inferences from 88e that Alkaid 1 was a SFS play.
Taximan, generally if you only publish the positives things will read positive. Note no mention of permeability. Pantheon's SMD is 100x more permeable that that at Alkaid and I believe their new leases are predicted to be 10-100 times better again.
In my opinion if the flow tests are positive, likely only confirmed by further third party modelling/verification, 88e have shot themselves in the foot by being selective in the way they have reported results. Certainly been an interesting week for the spectators.
Marbs, I think you are wrong. I believe all the reservoirs on Icewine are Brookian plays (see link). I also think you are confusing frac propagation (200ft) with height of interval perforated (20ft). It would be good to understand how well the fracs performed, this has been a learning curve for PANR shareholders.
I note 88e plan to request the contingent resource classification, it will be interesting if they look to get 3rd party type curve modelling and a commercial assessment in the updated IER.
Given the above I still think the comments regards natural flow are misleading.
Taximan, I would have though the lack of gas at SMD-B would be the primary driver to nitrogen lift being required. Not sure where your confidence in this respect comes from.
https://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/88E/02508470.pdf
Marlbs, the SMDB test was a vertical test in the Alkaid 2 well. Only thing I have uncovered is misleading statements IMHO.
Your response prompted me to check the Alkaid 1 vertical test as well, guess what:
'The Brookian ZOI has an estimated gross 400 feet and net 240 feet of pay. A six foot interval was perforated and stimulated and the well flowed naturally until 30% of the frac fluid was recovered, when a nitrogen gas lift system was initiated. Light oil (40 degree API) was recovered and c.40% of the frac fluid was returned within the first 14 hours. The well was shut in for 72 hours due to equipment problems and severe weather conditions (stage 3 Blizzard). The well was then turned back on and the oil cut increased steadily to +40%, producing about 80-100BOPD with occasional slugs of oil producing at much higher rate.'
Note Pantheon has occasional slugs much higher but didn't report these as peak flow rates. They also only perforated 6ft opposed to 20ft. However I don't think it's wise to compare well tests as they are seldom like for like. For instance there has been considerable learnings from Alkaid 2, which Pantheon have advised 88e on.
Taximan, please note the SMD-B flowed under natural flow:
'Expectations for flow rates, water saturations and water cuts had led to plans for nitrogen lift (necessary to reduce bottom hole pressure and ensure that fluids were recovered to surface). Encouragingly, nitrogen injection was not required until the last six days of the eleven day test, resulting in the operation coming in at or below budgeted timelines and costs.'
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PANR/validation-of-frac-design-and-fluid-sampling-tcrx4qvdikio0t4.html
The Alkaid 2 well also achieved natural flow. Note 88e have referenced Alkaid 2 as being a SFS play previously, although I am not sure Pantheon agree:
'Encouragingly, despite the blockage, the well is flowing naturally into Pantheon's recently commissioned permanent production facilities located on the Dalton Highway at a rate of over 500 barrels per day ("bpd") of hydrocarbon liquids which includes oil, condensate and natural gas liquids ("NGL's"), as well as significant natural gas, from an estimated 4,000 ft of lateral.'
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PANR/operational-update-qdows7bk03aci0x.html
The language used by 88e is misleading at best as evidenced above.
Stas20, if you are to persist with the placing line of attack it would more effective if you use the correct number required for initial CAPEX sink. Most PANR shareholders know that the number is ~$150M due to the multiple webinars we have watched were these numbers have been openly discussed.
Please also be aware that given the sheer size of the resources, many people won't be fazed by the dilution threats. Indeed Jay Cheatham has openly discussed worst case scenario's in past webinars also.
It would be good to get some balance on this board but you need to up your game if you are going to provide it.
Well the good news is all the directors holding means we are aligned regards dilution. Some directors have been significantly diluted since the Great Bear days so I can't see them wanting more. When you are likely looking at 3-4B bbls there is room for dilution.
Taximan, I would not classify using measured porosity, permeability, PVT data and applying it to proven industry modelling as 'guesstimating'.
There seems to be significant cherry picking of data going on. Or just making stuff up in the case of MMOs '250M in the basin'.
Taximan/MMO, it's a big assumption to use Pantheon's $5-10 per barrel given information released by 88e to date. If you look at the development plan numbers taken from 88e's own presentation. 88e are targeting EURs of 1-2M bbls and IP30s of 750-1500 bbls/day. Pantheon's latest modelling is predicting EURs of 3.5-4.5M and production rates capped at 5000bbls/day. Note I expect the difference to be even more stark in the BFF.
In reality your assumptions regards commerciality are far worse than those made by Olderwiser regards using well count to proportionally determine resource size. One might ask why haven't 88e provided this info? In reality 88e holders have went into these flow tests with neither the SMD B or USFS resource numbers available despite it being a year since the discovery. This seems a little odd to me
No need to imagine Brom, 88e confirmed at the time it was 2D.
'The data used to compile the independent prospective resource report includes reprocessed 2D seismic data, basin modelling, petrophysical analysis of publicly available wells and historical geological records. The data was compiled and interpreted by 88E and was reviewed, validated and in some cases modified independently by LKA.
LKA's methodology for determining Prospective Resources for Project Peregrine
LKA has determined Prospective Resources by examining the areas of consistent bright amplitude that were mapped by independent consultants to 88E, Jordan and Pay, using the reprocessed 2D seismic data within the Icewine East area. Parameters including potential pool area and thickness, porosity, hydrocarbon saturation, oil expansion and recovery factor were estimated on a probabilistic low, mid and high basis. The Prospective Resources distributions were then aggregated into four (4) prospects, on the basis that one (1) well could effectively test all the mapped prospective intervals. The unrisked prospective resources estimates (and associated geological chance of success) were modelled using Monte-Carlo analysis on the assumption there was no economic minimum and that volumes and risks of each of the prospective intervals within each prospect were independent.'
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/88E/icewine-east-maiden-prospective-resource-1j92w0uv9syx88p.html
The 3D may have been used in NSAI BFF resource estimate where it dropped from 341M bbls Net Prospective Resource Oil Resource to 85M bbls (Net Oil + NGLs)
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/88E/hickory-1-bff-maiden-contingent-resource-estimate-jpsev216etiwara.html
Lets hope the same doesn't happen to the SMD and SFS resources numbers when/if they move from prospective to contingent.
Pantheons SMD test was also at the feather edge of the reservoir. Whilst the SFS was from two 5ft sections (half that of Hickory), so read across isn't easy.
DavidWK, I would imagine wells at 500bbls/day will be marginal in regards to commerciality. Pantheon forecasting costs at $17M per well, $15M per injector (with 3 wells to 1 injector that's $5M per well). If Hickory GOR is indeed much higher it may require higher ratio of injectors to producers. Pads for 20 wells forecast at $50M ($3.3M per well). So that's $25.3M per well)17+5+3.3. 500bbls @$75 = $13.7M in first year (before states cut. Assume 50% decline rate and its 3 plus years to breakeven and inability for swift drill out.
here is brevarthan implying nsai do their reports on the 'back of *** packets'
https://x.com/hedgewatch1/status/1777645924447043838?s=46&t=hyoevfxks3i6bhpakynewa
here is him implying unethical behaviour by david hobbs
https://x.com/hedgewatch1/status/1773325400581505268?s=46&t=hyoevfxks3i6bhpakynewa
here is brevarthan insulting all 88e and panr shareholders
https://x.com/hedgewatch1/status/1775280892602384496?s=46&t=hyoevfxks3i6bhpakynewa
here is brevarthan insulting flight and scot126
https://x.com/hedgewatch1/status/1765094273123262548?s=46&t=hyoevfxks3i6bhpakynewa
here is him mocking peakybrum
https://x.com/hedgewatch1/status/1674187482529685504?s=46&t=hyoevfxks3i6bhpakynewa
here is troughsnout questioning the integrity of slb on march 23
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/troughsnout/?page=2
of course there are many more examples of him accusing/implying pantheon of dishonesty. all this from a guy who has zero industry experience.
he insults most of these people on twitter where he blocks any responses. yet here he is calling out abuse on lse. his family must be so proud.
please note it was me that highlighted the whole core at ps1 not scot126. it's been mentioned in multiple webinars, i actually mentioned it to him on here years ago. of course he doesn't let facts get in the way of his hit pieces, or scientific or geological theory for that matter. why bother doing the real work like nsai and slb when you can just make stuff up unconfined by expertise or standard industry modelling
oh and as a reminder all pantheon numbers are based on primary recovery only, yet he still bangs on about needing gas reinjection (secondary recovery)
you couldn't me it up, but he does.
Exactly Desmond45. Not the first time Redirons has made this premature claim, yet recommends everyone block anyone showing any hint of negativity.
Perhaps he should contact 88e and tell them to stop their 'assessment of commerciality' as he has completed it for them.
Can never decide if this guy is the most naive poster of the lot or the most deceitful. There is certainly a few of the old guard who play the game on here.
If I was a GLTH I would be more worried about the boards shareholding than Olderwiser's. I would imagine he (as I have) has held more 88e shares in his lifetime the Ashley Gilbert has. I remember when Brombarb used to share Olderwisers posts from Hotcopper, not such a big fan now it would appear.
Neversatisfied, I am not saying they cut the test short. I am saying they cut the data used short. It may have went up after the test, but it likely wasn't going up during the nitrogen lift period as they omitted this period from the average.With only 24.8bbls produced it had to be doing less than this in the last day (23hours) of production under nitrogen lift.
Maybe they are just being too clever for their own good and have created mistrust where there shouldn't be. We may get to hear Pantheon's take on Wednesday in the webinar scheduled.
Neversatisfied, it's clear they have cut off the flow rates from the nitrogen lift period, so not a question of timing. This was likely because it would have brought the average rate down IMHO (if not why cut it). This potential tarting up of the results raises suspicion which could have been avoided. The total fluid rates (600bpd) seem good though but gas rates are highest we have seen on the combined acreage. How this affects commerciality will be interesting. Pantheon we're projecting 1 gas injector for every 3 wells for what appears to be a significantly lower GOR, but proper analysis required to get accurate GOR number. Interesting to see how SMD plays out this week.