Stefan Bernstein explains how the EU/Greenland critical raw materials partnership benefits GreenRoc. Watch the full video here.
Unfortunately the Essar wildcat rig is not suited for OPL226. Its a semi-sub rig, suited more for deeper water, a lot more expensive to operate and over spec'd for the drilling programme. OPL226 is in shallow water (circa 40m to 100m), so we will be using a jack-up. I asked that question to Art a while back.
Good investigation, but the Wildcat won't be used for the current drilling programme.
Absolutely Shaa. Folk need to understand that investing is not over a day or a week, but can be many months for realisation of value. Depends on your strategy of course, some may wish to scalp or trade the swings for smaller percentages but the story is still unfolding. Position yourself well, wait for buying opportunities and have some patience IF you believe in the story and your own research.
We have been told what's coming - Wyoming, Nigeria and another in West Africa - all of which are in their infancy. Wait until things kick off in any or all of those, wait until the macro market sentiment turns following covid news, wait until the recent news is digested or this large seller has finished offloading, or don't. No point blaming others for decisions made by yourself.
Plenty to come here in my view, but it won't be today or tomorrow.
@nwgb - my simplistic view is that before this deal, COPL had zero debt. On the flip side, Atomic were likely riddled with debt and given the oil prices / financial environment this year, weren't able to manage that debt. COPL have the ability to raise additional finance / debt through better credit and a more positive outlook, whereas Atomic likely couldn't.
Well, there you have it - my assumption soundly rebuffed. I've only ever had a demo account on spread betting and there's no restriction. False advertising in my view! But I'll take back my comment if that differs on the live version.
"Happy to be proved wrong if someone can point me in the direction of a spread bet firm taking shorts on companies with market caps less than £50mil"
You can spread bet on IG on many many shares, including COPL. I suspect other platforms are the same.
Herts, I think Atomic Shareholders get shares at the price on date of completion (i.e. 31st January 2021).
"COPL expects to complete the acquisition by January 31, 2021"
"COPL Common Shares to Atomic Shareholder(s): $4 million priced at closing"
If Nigeria comes in by then also (as indicated), pushing the SP much higher, it will offset the amount of dilution further.
Fantastic dealing in my view.
Caw Caw, Petro, Shaa. All good points. The one thing I would add is that the Anyala & Badu fields started flowing oil in the last month at very significant rates (expecting peak rates of 60kbd).
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2020/10/31/nnpc-first-ep-jv-commences-production-in-omls-83-85/amp/
Anyala in particular is right next door to Noa. In fact, the OPL 226 block almost encircles OML 83 (google images OML83). This is important as it may be indicative of a better chance of success for flowing oil from Noa. It is from the same fault, the oil is there and does flow to surface. Sure, not a guarantee, but as good a chance as we can reasonably expect.
Further bans have been lifted on international flights to Nigeria, announced yesterday. Whilst not necessarily directly related to the Essar Nigeria, DPR & NNPC meeting, its indicative that Nigeria are opening back up and easing restrictions on international travel to the country. All about pre-empting what is to come, and it is just a matter of time before the meet is arranged.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-17/nigeria-says-air-france-klm-lufthansa-to-resume-flights
Nigeria have already opened up international travel from key destinations as of September, with more countries added to the list this month. There is a requirement to quarantine upon arrival for 7 days but that is an inconvenience rather than restrictive.
Nigeria resumes international travel:
https://simpleflying.com/nigeria-international-passenger-flights/
Nigeria signs bilateral aviation agreements with several more countries.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/simpleflying.com/nigeria-india-bilateral-agreement/amp/
COVID cases in Nigeria has reduced significantly from its peak (approx. 800pd) to today (approx. 50pd). They are not experiencing the resurgence that is impacting Europe and other areas.
They released an update 7 days ago to say that the licence is not at risk and that the PSC extension is expected in Q4 2020. I really don't know what some investors expect, or want, to hear (other than the PSC has been extended obviously). I'm certainly not expecting a RNS today, which is fine in my opinion - no point repeating yourself or releasing another jam tomorrow RNS that people can pick holes in.
CawCaw. I'm by no means saying I am correct, just throwing stones at the argument as I understand them to be different. Whether that is correct or not will come out in the wash.
I don't think the 2017 presentation should be interpreted as it has been. DT was first to highlight a '200 day lead time' on permits. Long lead items are also at 180 days. These may be critical path activities but what about the preparation, engagement with vendors, planning, specification, etc, etc. There is nothing holding back progress in certain areas, and that makes up a good chunk, if not a majority, of the lead time.
The comms from the company has never been great. That probably won't change. There is however snippets of evidence that despite not hearing if it, that progress is being made in the background. It's just that we are not kept up to date with it because there is no obligation to do so. Acceptance of the FDP was never RNSd separately, the PSC extension in 2018 was noted in a quarterly results only, and we were only alerted to a drilling contractor LOI in the 2019 quarterlies also. So, we are kept in the dark, which is frustrating, but clearly progress is being made. I think the same can be said just now. We will only know after the event.
CawCaw, a couple points that I'd argue against.
Essar have effectively been a silent (although disruptive) partner until very recently. To suggest the timelines have always been theirs on drilling, I think is incorrect. Even now, it is not clear what
the responsibilities are and even if the SHA has changed such. It was ShoreCan, on behalf of Essar Nigeria, that were responsible for contracting a service providers and rig. There is no indication that that has changed.
COPL has, most assuredly, a technical team that cover the technical aspects of the project and I expect this to cover permitting. It was one of the hotly debated topics on this board for so long - keeping the expertise, cutting overheads, etc. So that is the basis for the legwork and why the company ended up with no money - they had to pay their salaries.
I'd be very reluctant to base any predictions on that 2017 presentation. For one, its 3 years out of date. The permitting assumption is that it has had zero progress, which I'm confident is untrue. Further, it does not indicate critical path activities. As I mentioned previously, if drilling and environmental permits were awaiting PSC, wouldn't they have begun progress on that activity following the extension in 2018?
Not directly a sign of anything, however thought it worth pointing out NNPC are not completely at a standstill, evidenced by them signing agreements on OML 143 today. Hopefully they keep that pen wet and get on to signing off on OPL 226.
@NNPCGroup & Sterling Global have signed off on agreements for monetization of Oil Mining Lease (OML) 143. This latest development will help increase #NNPC's footprints in the downstream gas market and a potential revenue of $500-600m to #Nigeria.
CawCaw - cash and equivalents was essentially zero as of June 30, however the company have since raised £2.5M and cleared debts / liabilities by issuing further shares. The company is also drawing down on the YARF Loan at up to £100k per month. We can also see that monthly admin expenses have been reduced by some 40% since 2019 to approx $200k/m. I would expect current cash and equivalents to be over £2M.
As for cash flow going forward, the revenue generated from oil following successful flow of the first well is obviously the main one. However, there is also the recognition by Essar Nigeria of historical expenses incurred by ShoreCan on the licence to date and a commitment to repay these costs based on share ownership. Think up to 70% of ShoreCan's cost, time & resource for 3 years.
The one thing unclear to me is ShoreCans finance plans to fund the option for an additional 20% stake in OPL226. I strongly suspect that won't be put in to motion until after the drill given the company have 90 days thereafter but I believe that, should we strike oil anywhere near target flows, debt won't be too difficult to arrange.