The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Looks like Stewart effectively offloaded Virtual Sport Technology Limited to Draper and Hau yesterday or at least that is the filing history on Companies House. The office looks like it is above a Mail Boxes ETC in Maindenhead
Doing the groundwork for a pre-pack perhaps?
Funny how despite there finally being some information in the market, Helx et al still spend most of their time with sarcastic comments, rather then actually analysing the document and coming up with a useful analysis.
Happy to err on the negative with this, but generally it still leaves a shockingly large number of unknowns that they need to answer
1) A CLN not great, but then also we don't know the context - Perhaps they just don't want to go to the markets again and deem it easier to get a CLN from an investor willing to provide one. We also don't know how much, will it cover the short-fall or will they still need to go cap in hand to the market? Perhaps it is ultimately cheaper than a raise or they don't want immediate dilution.
Or it could be last chance saloon - perhaps they recognise investors won't stump up enough, the investor is the last roll of the dice, with the proviso of a massive reduction in costs. I suspect the latter
2) The H1 comparison is useless - we need some like-for-like information. In 2022 most of the the revenues were EMEA based, is this still the case for H1 2023. If so then in a sense they have done a decent job of protecting most revenues. But on the flip, that would mean US revenues are tiny. If this is the case then is this simply phasing i.e. sales not yet being revenues? If so it would also suggest there is potential upside to come.
If the revenues have flipped to US, then what happens with EMEA. Or perhaps it is balanced, and then we have EMEA revenue loss (or not as much as the contract was), and some US gain
Whatever it is, the US was useless in 2022...One would hope they have protected EMEA to some degree, and Football Manager etc would suggest that they have
3) Finally (forced?) cost reduction is on the agenda. If 40% cash-burn reduction is achievable then fantastic it would certainly do a lot for the runway. 40% is probably as big ask, and if it isn't then why did they burn so much before - they need to explain what the rationale was
4) The technology and potential contracts would suggest that this is ripe for M&A sooner or later unless the strategic investor protects it from others to an extent
5) Draper really does need to be entirely transparent about what is going on. At least in the H1 update we might get some segment information
Ultimately it remains a high risk stock, and a great big punt, but it always has been since 2016
Girdz, just a point, but as the company gets larger and grows organically then each bit of organic business possibly becomes less material. Just because we all want to know what is going on, doesn't mean we will be so lucky.
Also so what if they haven't filed their accounts with two weeks to go. They are due by 30th June, so why do they need to submit them before just because everyone might want them to.
I was just doing a sample poll of one on a FTSE 100 company I track and they have yet to submit their actual accounts, but they also have the same June deadline. I am not expecting any major shocks for them. Of course Bidstack could have a shock or two, it wouldn't exactly be a shock
And Bidstack doesn't have to update the market for 2023 beyond a 1/2 year update
So why not just be patient. Will the news be good or bad or just steady as he/she/they goes? Who knows, we can all speculate and postulate and unless someone has some inside knowledge no one knows what is going on
And Helx stop going on about being right, you do put not timelines on anything and don't put an end thought on Bidstack...Who cares what the current state is? It is a start-up it will either do relatively well and grow and quite possibly we will get a return or it will fail miserably. They odds are on the latter simply because not many businesses succeed, but it has survived this long, so maybe it will one of those that actually does well.
By the way, do you really have such insecurities that you need everyone to nod in agreement with you being right? If so this probably isn't the forum to sort that out.
Ah Helx, bless you with your 1.2p. Where is the context? When is it going to go to 1.2p? What is going to happen after that? Is it going to bounce to £1.20, or down to nothing? I am sure all of us would love some detailed thoughts from you on the company, its product offering and the potential future of it and the market. Given your wisdom and prediction of 1.2p, you must have some great insights to share with us, the unwashed. Please don't leave us chomping at the bit any longer.
Also why not just state this is going to be a failed business if that is your summation? And why not sell up, take your investment and buy a pint to drown your sorrows/celebrate your profound wisdom
Or maybe 1.2p is just a throwaway comment and therefore we should ignore it and you. What do you think? Should we take you seriously?
Personally I haven't a clue what will happen with this company in the next three years or so. It could make it, it could fail. At the moment it is all in the balance, but at least there is a product generating income now.
Girdz, plenty of industries have a weighting towards particular parts of the year, mine inexplicably is always final quarter and that is b2b
Advertising is likely to have seasonality, perhaps for the big agencies it is flattened by a diverse portfolio, I don't know. Bidstack is a one trick pony, the big agencies have much more depth. Although having said that, WPP's H2 revenues look to be c.14% larger than H1, so even if they can flatten it somewhat, there is still a second half weighing.
Their pass through revenue in 2022 was as follows
Q1: £2574m
Q2: £2935m
Q3: £2986m
Q4: £3304m
On this basis Q4 was 28% bigger than Q1 for WPP and Q4 was 10%+ bigger than Q2 and Q3
II guess for others peak revenues could be earlier in the year if it is big ad projects that ramp up in the 2nd half/final quarter but require a lot of work up front.
Bidstack probably doesn't need that kind of lead time and so its revenues are more closely linked to the timing of peak advertising.
VP is a throwaway title. It can mean anything.
As for the strategy, I would have thought the strategy should be based around profitable revenue growth and the point of the strategy is to understand how to get there or is the suggestion just to sell whatever, wherever?
To note that this data also highlights that perhaps Bidstack is chasing quality over quantity - Adverty have 50% broader reach on x5 the number of games, i.e. the reach per game is much less for Adverty
The averages per game have Adverty on 36k, and Bidstack on 121K. On that metric, Bidstack is the leader by a country mile, with #2 being Anzu on 56K.
In fact looking at that data I would argue that Anzu are doing a better job that Adverty - they have the same reach but on far fewer games.
Perhaps some dividing lines on competitor offerings - Adverty pile it high and sell it cheap vs Bidstack going higher quality, with Anzu somewhere in the middle
This would suggest each client is more material for Bidstack, which of course can be a positive and a negative. Only time will tell
And of course Adverty are going to big themselves up in their own press release, Bidstack and all the others (would) do exactly the same
Just to clarify, Redrow are hardly a local independent business with revenues >£2bn
Gridz, the investment case is not really any different to the past i.e. do you think this business can be a success and generate many multiples of its existing revenue (and be profitable)? If you think yes, then the market cap would seem to be very low and should rise significantly. If Bidstack had £100m in revenues, would you expect the current market cap? If not then what this looks like for shareholders depends on the dilution and number of new shares in the market.
Now it could run out of cash and go under. I don't think this is beyond the realms of possibility either, and certainly not when funding for start-ups has reduced significantly.
Now imagine it does hit £100m revenues, what would be the market cap? We can all guess, but let's go with a very conservative £200m, i.e. x8 the existing market cap. I don't believe it would be this low, but even at this, it would take a decent amount of dilution to put many investors underwater. Now the risk/reward is up to the investor...it may be too low a return.
Now imagine the market cap is £500m or more. That is the investment case...
The flipside it could easily end up being worth £0.
I don't believe £25m is a realistic long-term market cap for Bidstack, it is either £0 or a lot more than £25m
There is still a lot of guess work, and it certainly won't be a share for many people, but assuming one is sensible with the amount bet/invested, then it could provide a decent return. I would certainly never put this as one of my primary investments, it is still far to risky to be anything other than a side bet
Surely if they get extra funds, it means it is far from game over as they then have the cash in the bank to continue until the next raise (if needed). Game over is when they run out of cash and investors (or banks) won't provide any more funding.
Helx surely it is you who enjoys a good whine....
To Stuart's point, they are, not sounds like, and as for sleeping it away, I doubt there is much chance of that unless their name is Princess Aurora and in which case maybe JD's nom de guerre is Maleficent
I suspect that H1 2023 won't tell us much from a revenue perspective even if Jude et al have been magnificently successful. The will be a lag between sales and revenue.
Of course there may be commentary that provides some rays of sunshine
As long as the the new revenues materialise before it runs out of cash...
They have a decent runway, but they need to start to close the gap or at least show how that happens.
I am of course assuming that the Azerion work had a positive impact on cash burn
The other aspect to consider is the Azerion situation. If that had been revenue, then the burn would have been lower.
Ultimately Bids therefore needs to recoup that revenue in the long term (i.e. substitute it) to reduce the burn or cut their cloth accordingly
I never said I was accurate, as I have never said what price I think they should be old boy. You have just gone all over the shop from buying at a crazy price to being bitter and resentful. I suspect you were the dreamer for whom it was actually a nightmare.
Oh and if you notice, I have repeatedly stated that there is a reasonable chance this company will go completely bust, I just also think there is a chance that there is a decent company there who might make some money. I wouldn't bet strongly either way as yet.
I am happy to admit that I am as clueless as you and everyone else as to where this journey will end. I however don't pretend to be a knock-off Nostradamus
Helx did you re-rate them over the weekend then, down to 1p now. I am sure you need to alert the markets to that given how much that will impact everyone!
Yes usual rubbish...your predictions have not rationale, why have you not just said "I think it will go bust", for the last three years, not ooo err it will be 1.2p then 0.8p or whatever
You just come out with the same old bluster, no actual insights, probably a flippant comment or two, rinse, wash repeat.
Dear oh dear
Nothing wrong with thinking this is a dog of a company, plenty do, and with perhaps with some justification, but you are not one who provides valid reasons. The jury is out on Bidstack, it is a start up and who knows where the adventure will end. In three to five years, I have no idea if I ill be delighted with a star or filling in my EIS loss form
And who said I was buying?
You called it bang on correct buying at 30p, when there was no viable product and basically no customers? Well done, I think it was pretty obvious the shares were never worth that amount at the time. I know everyone makes mistakes.
If it is such a dog to you, why do you keep posting and seemingly delighting if there is it bad news, are you just bitter or perhaps nefarious? Don't forget 60+ people rely on Bidstack for their livelihoods and most are probably on very average salaries, with mortgages, ever increasing energy bills etc, just like the rest of us. Bidstack is not just James Draper...