Utilico Insights - Jacqueline Broers assesses why Vietnam could be the darling of Asia for investors. Watch the full video here.
Yes, it looks to be creeping back
7 June 2024, this will hit 40p and then I will buy in - with mucho, mucho greed :)
So there we have it - 1p (or cash out of USD 3.36mn) another 425 squid which I wasn't expecting. Thanks Jaco et al. If this drops back to 40p then that is another 1063 shares to add to the bottom drawer.
Cycle will at some point start to tick back up it always does in the long term. Sort term this is not the place for investors.
Luna must be ecstatic - he/she gets their wish.
Nobody mentioned "special" dividend.
When (which Quarter) did SLP last fail to make a profit?
Rh is still more than double the price of gold with a fraction of the AIC (all-in-costs)
Either put the cash to use or distribute it but do not leave it doing zilch.
a buffer. against what? these guys are still profit-making. true, no where near as much but rh has been holding now for 6 months at a floor.
**** happens? a rainy day??
Anybody care to hazard a guess ???
I mean they have to do summat with that cash pile...
Not before 2028 is my guess. Reinvestment is obvs their game plan for the short to mid term.
If you want regular divis invest in SLP. 54% pay out ratio (TTM) and stacks of cash.
RH price (spot) is holding around $4,500 (> double gold price) and has been for some time. Production steady. Ambitious management but prudent.
Yes indeed Rift.
Oil Price: $75.00 | BOPD: 18,500 |Revenue per day:$1,387,500.00 | Revenue p.a.: $506,437,500.00 |JV share: 30% $151,931,250.00 | FCF to equity: $50,000,000.00 | implied Costs: $101,931,250.00 | Costs per day: $279,263.70 | Cost per BOPD: $15.10 | Costs per $ oil: $3,723.52
BREAK EVEN
Oil Price: $35.00 | BOPD: 18,500| Revenue per day: $647,500.00| Revenue p.a.$236,337,500 | JV share:30% $70,901,250.00 |Costs: $70,901,250.00 | Cost per day: $194,250.00| Cost per BOPD $10.50 | Costs per $ oil: $5,550.00
As the spot price rises, the costs per BOPD rise but the cost per $ oil drops
Whatever, this is now looking as though the patience has been rewarded.
As I mentioned earlier in another post, for me this is a long term hold and (hopefully) in time, with dividends for the loyal. Admittedly, this is a risky sector and there is the country risk.
On the other side of the balance, there is P Mc D and his team.
Let`s trust that 2024 will take AET into new heights
GLA
Hi Rift.
I assumed the capex and op costs or cash out were or are fixed. Understand that the cash in is a variable obvs depending on the spot price. As is certain costs like taxes which are linked to that variable. But I assumed costs not dependent upon the spot price and constantly moving as the spot moves
By taking 50m FCF against an assumed prod level of 18500 and working back we could arrive at an all-in cost per day if we know that AET break even is $35 spot. But this is not possible with variable cost levels which I do not really understand because the costs ought to be the same day to day week to week regardless of what the spot price is doing.
It is that $71m ($35 oil price break even) that I don`t get as on your numbers of $102m (which I agree with) it should be nearer to $50 :
Price VOL
$35.00 18,500 365 days
30%
70,901,250
Price VOL
$50.40 18,500 365 days
30%
102,097,800
(Obvs 365 days is not realistic but for this it does not matter.)
Prod of 25k BOPD at $75 is $616m p.a. at 90% efficiency
If FCF after o/h is $47m, on rev of $616m implies all in cost of $569m or $1.558m per day
Taking this and 25k prod gives a break even oil price of (allowing for rounding) $62
Does that square with your calcs?
Yes, agreed take it out and if not spend, then do what? Perhaps pay down personal debt at [5]% if anyone is mortgaged
Better option is to reinvest in the short term agreed.
Roger that - 53% ! at 31.75p
Thanks for that.
Very helpful.
GLA
Based upon projections of:
Revenue: [X]
Net Profit: [Y]
add back dep. and other non-cash items (less maintenance capex) : FCF (to equity): [Z] - 50%
Z is obtained obvs by "X" double "Y" e.g. rev = 200m, Y = 100m FCF = 50%
Not sure how the SP fits in, but what nos. do you have for X and Y to get Z?
Thanks for the info. Forgive the lazy approach. Has the break-even of $35/bbl shifted at all do they say?
Helps to take:
(a) BOPD x 330 (assumes 90% efficiency) , multiplied by an assumed $ rate for Brent for a gross revenue
(b) Deduct the all-in cost per day (includes all opex and capex) x 365
Last time I did this the net earnings numbers - Free Cash Flow to Equity - were around $35M p.a. but that was yonks ago and I am probably way way off!
GLA
Means I can use my SLP divi and load up another 5,000 to for a 190,000 vol stake in this. Beats crypto.
I`m looking at a 5 -10 year plan and a future income divi so (even at say 3p) that is a nice 6k
Obvs short term peeps will be lack of conviction and that is fine too; each to their own
GLA
Showing as flat line since July 24 at $4100...Any ideas?
The key for me is the divi. This is now only a divi play as there is no longer a viable reason to hold this stock. I am now underwater on SLP unbelievable as that was a few years back. And it is not looking too rosy in the foreseeable. So it follows the only real reason to still hold is the divi. If that goes, then I see this dropping further back as people exit in droves if they have not already done so. For me I will not sell. I do not need to. This will come back but it is a bottom drawer stock for me now. One to simply forget about for now.
what does it mean?
it is jam tomorrow bs. always. it is frickin` ridiculous.
greed ...with other people`s money.
close one deal before you start bragging about another one. it is embarrassing. a 10-year old would know that.
the idiots will start spouting the usual gob****e bs about how wonderful it all is.
confidence has been destroyed here and they have no credibility at all until they - wait for it ...deliver!!!!
deliver..............deliver..............deliver.............. are you listening mr mcdade?
deliver on promises made before you start making new ones and stop treating shareholders like idiots although judging from a lot of these comments a lot of them are.
i`m stuck in this and past the point of no return. as soon as they if they deliver i am out.
too much risk. not enough return. simple as that.
"based on the outstanding workstreams and associated timeframes, completion of the transaction is now expected to occur in july 2023 and we are working, together with sonangol, to extend the long stop date for this acquisition accordingly."
radio silence.
a "long stop date" is a date drafted into a commercial contract whose only purpose is to trigger an exit arrangement.
it is really poor management to not update the market like this.
been in touch with investor relations twice and nada.
i get pledges made against third party actions outside of their control. what is not outside of their control however is proper comms.
they need to improve. this is ****e frankly.