We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
Personally, I am pushing back (again) my 'restart of exports' assumption date from the beginning of June until the beginning of September. That brings my model's YE fair value price, based on this and other assumptions including CONTINUITY OF THE CURRENT CONTRACT TERMS, to 204p if arrears are fully valued and 151p ex receivables. Discounting these YE numbers to end April (using my 20% discount rate - likely too low) yields 181p and 128p, respectively. Given the enormous uncertainty regarding receivables recovery I'd weight the ex receivables numbers much more than the others. Obviously, any negative adjustments to the current contract terms would have to be factored in once known.
"I agree a united front has been and continues to be strong, but when do we reach the point where it becomes counterintuitive, delaying the point where IOCs individually will need to negotiate individually and directly with ICG/SOMO? I don't know when that point is, but ultimately I think there will come a point where the IOCs will have to go and work out their own terms."
The ICG has, by and large, not yet decided to engage with the IOCs directly. On the contrary, they are largely avoiding the discussion. (In my opinion they're still focused on bringing the KRG to heel.) Until then, it make immense sense to continue for the IOCs to voice a united front and an expectation that current contract terms must be honoured, while at the same time voicing a keen willingness to get back to work (so-to-speak) for Iraq. JH and the others need the ICG/Somo to engage seriously. They will - when they're ready to. In no way is APIKUR a negotiating body for the individual IOCs. They're a PR strategy and a means of expressing a united front to the ICG. That's it.
You miss my point. ' All for one and one for all' still has considerable value at this stage. JH and GKP should work in close cooperation with the other members of APIKUR (regardless of what you think of their appointed PR guy).
One of the things I find amusing about you Straycat is that you pick arguments against notions that no one here (certainly no one of right mind) supports or would support. It's like you love to fight windmills, straw ones at that. I'd be astonished if anyone here thinks Myles IS the answer.
Enjoy your evening.
"To be clear, Myles is definitely not the answer. "
He was never intended to be! He is simply a PR voice for APIKUR. There's a need for that, but why would anyone expect more from him? Responsibility rests with JH and the other CEOs to debate, collectively and individually. For now there's strength in numbers.
What do you expect from a communications consultant (akin to those deployed by public companies to help with their investor communication)? You should expect zero.
What matters is the CEOs and other management from the affected companies getting down to face-to-face discussions. Shame there haven't been many of those...
"Nearly every post is a rampantly ramp, never have i seen a post urging caution or announcing you have sold or reduced. "
Yup, no clue Opu. I wonder how his partner feels about being stuffed with stock a lot higher up. Still together?
@alexeliasson I recommend you do some work understanding the CRP and it's depletion. You will have a better understanding of just what generated the free cash flow (available for dividends) in the past versus what can happen going forward in a reopening scenario. ATB
No I'm not. The time to complain about the LTIP was in 2014. Shareholders of record back then approved it (not me). Now one needs to take it on the chin. Good luck b*tching about nail cost option awards at the AGM...
Does anyone know when the current plan expires? That's the next opportunity to voice concerns about a plan proposal.
If I'm not mistaken this is the grant that is now up for vesting:
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/gulf_keystone_petroleum/news/rns/story/xlqod3w
2,751,974 share options were awarded under the LTIP in April 2021. Unfortunately, we are left to guess the number that have lapsed, versus those that have vested but aren't expected to be exercised immediately, versus those that will be (with the share delivery met from the EBT and this issuance of stock).
I wonder how many more nil cost options will be awarded in the next couple of weeks with the 2024 grant...
You should be far more concerned with how many, if any at all, of the 8.224 million o/s as of Dec 31 - from that portion that were granted circa 3 years ago - won't vest due to performance targets not being met and hence will vanish (allowing the FD shares o/s figure to fall).
"Still an unnecessary dilution though. "
What is? As of Dec 31 there were 8.224 million options o/s. That's the dilution. It was created quite some time ago. (And expect more LTIP/DBP issuance in the next few weeks.) Since they only have 200k in the EBT they need more shares and can either issue more shares (for no consideration) or use excess cash to buy those shares in the market (and not cancel them). Yes, I'd prefer the latter - and a buyback of a whole lot more than 255k shares. That excess cash isn't earning anywhere near close to its cost of capital...
PS: Deferment isn't a cut.
Once again, the dilution occurs from the option grants and not this issuance. Only an idiot uses 222,698,655 as the denominator rather than the FD number of circa 230 million which hasn't changed as a result of today's announcement.