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As I've said the MM's are just letting this trade in a tight range and the have the stock to control it. This has been the pattern for weeks and is easy, risk-free profits for them. It is literally like printing money for the MM's atm. This will only change once some bigger, less ambiguous news lands and the traders have to be much more careful. Two catalysts - deal with PC and production in short order, at a decent flow rate with no ifs, buts and maybes. Gobi is a potential bonus and not essential. Then the MM's have to let it go, especially if/when the ii's start sniffing around. Two more stages of de-risking and then we're away. I want 4.5p by the end of November, minimum. If there's a whisper of a JV also then the pressure will be on MM's. I still believe that there is something in the background here that has spooked the Mongolians into action which Buck has used as a bit of leverage with them. Just a hunch of course. Any shorts still held at the end of this week are playing a dangerous game so I fully expect a .2p uptick tomorrow alone as they close out, finishing atound the 2.8p mark. Next week could then be pivotal for investors' fortunes. Congrats to Mike Buck for getting us into what I believe is a strong position but clearly not a risk-free one still.

No. The H2 test established that the two wells are drilled into the same underground oil-bearing rocks. That wasn't a given before the test which is why the RNS emphasised the connection. I've been in oilers where they find a bit of oil and then scrabble around trying to find where else it goes in the field. Anyway, that's me done as it's got a bit heavy as the good Mr T said. These are only my intepretations of what's in the public sphere, it goes without saying. My speculation from this, however, is that this might be why the Mongolians have suddenly got urgent about things as there may be a deal with an outside oil company on offer as it is exactly the right time for this to happen. I emphasise that this is just me joining some dots in my own way. GLA. My favourite cafe awaits.

Like I said, if H2 had not been the same oil-bearing unit as H1 then the company would be in the position of having to drill further exploratory holes to establish other the location of other stratigraphic units. They now know exactly the lay of the land and by my reckoning should be able to drop at least H3 and and H4 between the two poles, given well-spacing conventions.

One would assume that they are happy to give 821bopd as a baseline figure from the initial well-test but given how important the flow-rate, viscosity etc are, they won't give updated figures publicly until proper and longer testing has taken place. But you can bet they already have a good idea what they've got.

The importance being that it's the same oil-bearing rock formation for H1 and H2. It's not a reservoir like an underground lake so establishing that the two wells are connected underground was not a given before the H2 test. They could have just as easily hit another formation and got a duster.

As per the 1st October RNS on H2 to be precise:

'· An oil zone of 18m gross thickness was encountered which wireline logging indicates is very likely the same stratigraphic unit as that successfully tested in the Heron-1 discovery well'.

The important news in recent RNS's is that the H1 and H2 wells are pretty certainly tapping into the same reservoir. This allows much quicker identification of new sites for further wells and provides essential information for getting resources logged as reserves asap. The company has been pretty coy about flow rates at Heron but we know that it flowed at 821bopd unstimulated which is good news. Two wells producing 60k barrels of oil per month with minimal stimulation with further wells brought onstream in quick time early 2025, is an absolute game changer. There is certainly enough information available to interest a putative JV partner who might have those flow rates already, especially now MATD has shown they have a bit of leverage with local authorities. Now is the time to do a deal, not once MATD is sucking in 60K barrels a month with no debt to cover. The more you look at it, chapeau to Mike Buck and no wonder Malcy gave MATD some credit in his last blog.

I'll say again, that I believe that something is happening in the background which has suddenly instilled a sense of urgency into the Mongolians to get MATD into production asap. The spontaneous changing of the planning rules to facilitate the permanent facilities being built now and going forward just seems so contrasing to what went before that it is hard not to infer that something has happened to engender such a change of heart. I mean, on the face of it, it doesn't make that much difference to them whether MATD starts pumping now or early 2025 but they have gone way out of their way to now give MATD a good chance, with a fair wind, to get pumping oil asap. The questio has to be asked, Why?

Just for the sake of accuracy, it is my understanding that large dumps of snow are not as common in the east of Mongolia as in the North, and that wrt oil operations it is the extreme cold and frozen land that is most problematic but that it doesn't get really low until closer to the end of the year. Never been there though, just read a bit of climate reporting.

Would love it if Buck announces a huge, megabucks money on the table approach by the Chinese and we trigger the mother of all short squeezes!

Also, one very common tactic traders use to spread fear is to constantly report on the big sells going through in order to build a narrative that is one big seller or institutional seller offloading with the suggestion often hinted at that such sellers must be privy to insider information, thereby spooking PI's. I've seen it on literally every board I've looked at. The simple retort is always that if they held so many shares to decimate the SP through selling then where was the TR1 for thier huge holding?

As I've said many times, the rise and fall of the SP on AIM companies has very little to do with fundamentals, announcements etc and everything to do with MM's facilitating, and taking advantage of, short-term trading positions especially when there is such high liquidity. They basically set the price where they think they can attract the most traders, hence the range trading over the last few weeks. The price never does anything dramatic, just enough either way to pull in traders who can then trade in a tightly controlled range of +/-.2p in this case. Look at the daily graphs and you can see clearly where MM's set their levels for SP to bounce off up or down. This then attracts traders who then spread fear using long-established tactics to push the price down when they need to. BB's for AIM listed companies are full of perplexed investors who see their company doing well but the sp going nowhere. It's a traders' paradise because they are the target market for MM's.

I'm wondering if Buck has said to the Mongolians that there's an offer on the table from the Chinese and we can't hold them off without your support now. We need to get income coming in this side of winter otherwise we'll have no alternative but to get into bed with the Chinese, so to speak. That seems a very possible scenario given the sudden urgency on the part of the mongolians. I was very struck by the word 'instructed' in the RNS this week.

I agree with all that WOS but I also wonder if Buck has used a bit of leverage with the Mongolians, put a little bit of fear into wrt the Chinese.

Agreed Investor. The rise last week and then the drop this week can only be about MM's, trading etc. and nothing to do with progress in the field. The company just announced that they will be a producer this month.

Why is everything happening in a hurry now, including the Mongolian authorities suddenly bending over backwards to get things moving, including changing their planning rules? I have my own theory, but nobody here has yet given an explanation for this sudden clear shift in the Mongolian's attitude.

I've said it before but what is the point of MAFL being listed now? Wouldn't it be better just to take it private? MM's aren't interested so just open up the spread and ignore it, shares are pretty tightly held and there aren't many of them to begin with, JV is no longer marketing it, and LTH's are just sitting here waiting for it to play out.

*Wizard's

I think Wizards's moniker is a bit misleading...

To reiterate, Gobi is not a duster. Just to be clear about that. Re the trading, if you actually look at the daily graphs it's clear what is going on. The MM's have created the conditions for traders to make easy money. The SP never rises or falls by more than .2p on any one day. We have multiple traders turning up to spread fear - it's clear who they are. Work it out. It ain't rocket science.