RE: Takeover/ JV12 Oct 2024 10:45
So much guesswork, based on no data really. We know H1 is ready to go, H2 is subject to flow test but there's hope that it will flow similar to H1 as we have established that it has found the same geological formation as H1, less than a KM away. We await a key catalyst in the Mongolian authorities signing off on the deal provisionally struck with PC, but we are encouraged by the alacrity with which the construction permit issue was resolved in our favour. For me, getting H1 up and running and generating a bit of income will be a massive threshold crossed and enhances the investment case considerably. Everything else is speculation and we all have our guesses wrt flow-rates, potential income per well, potential borrowing channels once we have regular income with a surplus, potential JVs, farm-ins (I have stated previously that my theory is that an approach and an offer for Matd by the Chinese was used as leverage by Buck and triggered the Mongolians to get their fingers out), potential new find after the 'ambiguous' Gobi drill result. Bottom line for me, and why I continue to hold, is that H1 producing this side of the winter is the most likely, quickest and most achievable of these potential outcomes and is enough to secure the company's future going forward, provides a base to build from exponentially (first well always takes longest to establish and is the costliest), and any income at all mitigates against future raises or at least limits their scale, and also begins to point towards some reasonable borrowing. So buy, sell, hold and speculate away as is the wont of these boards but keep things in perspective. H1 bringing in income is the game-changewr for a company that has never earned a sou in income for over a decade.