Member Info for potnak

I'm currently more than 100% in profit. That's why I'm confident. No failures yet. Not much chance of a failure yet, although I will be happier when we have news from the east about Aurora. Aurora notwithstanding, the next risk of failure is lack of funds and 1801 not having a great P1. We are a year or two away from any binary choice of win\lose. Yes the SP drifts, as it does on all AIM stock but for now, I can only see the upside and in gambling terms, we're just about to clear the last jump at Aintree.

IMO, It's simple as to why no offers yet. I reckon the discussions SAR have been in (for a while now) are nowhere near what fair value is. The SP could easily be 5p just on the 1801 licence, Aurora and 737 news. Maybe even more than 5p. So an offer would have to be multiples of that. AIM traders are either clueless, too risk-aware or just plain gamblers. I'm in the gambling group. I'm betting that bidding will start at 16p like RMM says and we'll settle around 20p. I don't doubt that the figures that Thoth quotes could happen. I just don't think we'll get the chance to see that happen. SAR's only weakness right now isn't the risk of failure, it is not having the support of shareholders to push this through to conclusion. Whatever it takes. As I said, I'm an AIM gambler so it's easy to validate this in my own head. I missed out on a few good multi-baggers over the years. I'm not going to miss out on this one.

On the delay for Covid, the licence for 1801 (when it comes) will negate any preclin and POC work for Covid as the new licensee will pick it up and run with it. It's looking more than likely that and 1801 licence will come way before the end of POC for Covid. Covid gives the licence a fast track compound and hopefully adds significant value for Sareum.

Yep, Bridges. We've all got bias though. I heard what you heard. The pessimists amongst us hear something different.

Basser1 I'm of the opinion that an offers or offers are already on the table but they haven't met the expectation of Tim, the board and shareholders. We could license 1801 pre-clinical and there wouldn't be any shortages of companies wanting it but at what discount? If we want maximum value for shareholders we have to be willing to put 1801 into P1 trials ourselves. The cost to licence goes up with every milestone we pass. This RNS is Sareum raising the bet, its all a game of poker. No blinking until 20p, Tim!

Yes, only looks to have slipped a few weeks though, Fadec. The higher doses and MTD can only be good news and should mean a risk free P1.

In SAR's case, how would a cvr work? would SAR shares still be tradable? Say SAR were acquired by Gilead the SAR shares would effectively cease to exist. Presumably, we'd get a one off up front payment. Then we'd have to wait a few years for the royalties to roll in or for the failure. Could you trade your percentage of the cvr or would you be stuck with it? The upfront would have to be meaty for the shareholders to vote it or why go for it?

Sorry, it was Cobalt who I agree with, not Maf. The horror of it :-)

Sorry, it was Cobalt who I agree with, not Maf. The horror of it :-)

Yep, agree with maf re the AGM. I did think if there is news to release this year that they may get it out before AGM. It would have given them an easy ride. Unlikely now though. We still have plenty to look forward to and soon!

In most cases, I agree, Steve but we have news due on several fronts. Going by the mood on this board, the AGM could be frosty at least virtually. If they do have news to release in the next 3 weeks. I reckon they will Aim to do it before the AGM. We can all settle down into Christmas then.

It does my head in this PR thing. Brighty and a few others are obsessed with f**king PR. It won't have anything to do with Citigate, they won't be able to put anything out without approval from Strand Hanson Limited who are our NOMAD. By the time Fergus F**king Walsh puts any news out there for any listed company, there will have to be an RNS, or they will be in a closed period which will mean no imminent news due. The herd will come with news, simple as that.

I would think that if SAR is going to meet the end of the year for 1801 preclinical they will know by now and will probably want to get the news out before the AGM. They will get an easy ride into Christmas and next year if they do. I can't see anything happening with 737 until 2021 and isn't Aurora 2021, technically? I still have a nagging thought that it's Sareum that is holding things up with Aurora flt3 and TYK2 as it is our endgame that is being worked and 737 is a Brucie bonus for the winner.

CB - Maybe you have. There is a risk we will lose everything here. I'm prepared to lose the lot in pursuit of the biggest payday I've ever had. You seem to have taken issue with Stach posting on the VAL board and decided to come here to stir things up just because of that. You are free to post what you want but you haven't added any value to the board all weekend. The only upside is you wasted much of your own time trying to discredit other posters here and for what? Nothing has changed. VAL are still a dud. That's got to be worth a laugh. :-)

CB - Maybe you have. There is a risk we will lose everything here. I'm prepared to lose the lot in pursuit of the biggest payday I've ever had. You seem to have taken issue with Stach posting on the VAL board and decided to come here to stir things up just because of that. You are free to post what you want but you haven't added any value to the board all weekend. The only upside is you wasted much of your own time trying to discredit other posters here and for what? Nothing has changed. VAL are still a dud. That's got to be worth a laugh. :-)

Well, well, well, aren't we a happy bunch! CB is obviously frustrated because he keeps picking duds for his portfolio. The more this board sinks into despair the less the knowledgeable posters will share their research with us. The long term holders are here for one thing and that's the big payday. it doesn't matter to us whether the intraday price is 1p or 3p. We are here for 10 x todays price at least. SAR is one of the very few AIM companies that really does have the potential to 10 bag but it's not going to be an easy ride. No one is forcing us to hold, the sell button is right there, if you don't like how the company is run, push it and chase another rainbow.

Good post, Stoney. Complete agreement. SAR were always going to behind the surge. Our compound, although promising, is still pre clinical. Other companies in the Covid casino. We're P2/p3 or already on the market. Having said that, we should still see if 1801 is as good as we hope it is. Any efficacy adds to the value of the compound.

IMO the Covid Grant, great as it is, is now priced in. Don't think we'll get anything in the way of updates until the work is done and the timescale for this work is 6 months. So we could be looking at May 2021 before anything tangible comes our way. That's not to say they can't say preliminary findings with prospective partners though. I'll say this again. At the very least this fast-tracks the compound for other indications. Any prospective partner sniffing around will know this and will know the buyout price jumps massively on good data from the Covid POC. All we need for a great Christmas is news on SRA737 and or FLT3

Lol, it would be like sacking a football manager whose team 7th in the Premier league but they have games in hand and could get to Europe. Mixing my metaphors here but why would you knobble your own horse so close to the finish? If we don't have anything by April 2021, do your worst but I won't vote for anything before that.

An you check your crystal ball for SAR please. #muppet.