Member Info for potnak

Aye, well. No conspiracy needed. Based on past performance of AIM companies. There is a much bigger chance that the shareholders will lose all their money rather than make money. Not de ramping. Just facts and past experience. Think some here need to play that particular scenario out in thier head. It won't be Tim's fault when that happens. It'll be yours.

Well, you can bet Tim won't be sharing news/reports again. Not if it spooks people this easy. If I could post a picture of Tim, there would be a speech bubble saying WTF!!! Above his head.

Not one person here would be moaning if we had risen 10% on the news. In fact if they hadn't posted it, some would be moaning that we never follow up on stuff. It's a good report, nothing bad in there. The cash runway isn't over stated and the drop this morning was manufactured, feeding off the anxiety here. The threat of a raise is just us staking the board in this game of poker.

I'm bemused at todays posts. Anyone would think you are new to this game! And you've summoned charlie back with your projected anxiety. You asked for PR, you got PR, delivered right into the group that has been moaning about the lack of PR. Raise or not. We have a maximum of 8 weeks before news of us going into P1 for Covid, fully funded, I may add and also with documented proof that other companies have seen massive re rates when doing similar. It doesn't even have to work. I'll take a 32000% increase on the sp by p3. Think I will sign off for the day.

A raise now is purely a negotiating tool. If they raise enough for a years worth of cash, including a 1801 P1. It takes the pressure off and any pharma looking to deal will have to pay the fair value now or the super inflated value if the Covid thing takes off. At this stage, Its a game of poker.

Over all. The report is more bearish than bull. That is Sareum's way though. Its a good report for newbies to read if they don't know what/who SAR are. The Covid work could blow the doors off this but that all depends on how the Covid landscape is looking when the news drops. The cash runway isn't overly stated which makes me think that some sort of funding is inbound with either a licence or VC investment. We'll have to wait and see. There could be a raise when 1801 goes into humans for Covid.

Their pipeline looks very much like SAR in terms of maturity of compounds. So why aren't SAR sitting over a billion?

Their pipeline looks very much like SAR in terms of maturity of compounds. So why aren't SAR sitting over a billion?

Just to add to my own comments. I'm starting to think that renegotiating the milestones was just another delay tactic. In the grand scheme of things, the amount saved is peanuts.

The fact is. Sierra hasn't got enough cash to push SRA737 any further. Not without borrowing from their Momo pot, which they aren't going to do. There are £290 million just in milestones, which will ramp up very quickly once the trials start up again. That's without the trial costs. I think they will need to risk £500 million just to take it to the end of p3 and on to the market. As you say, it's much cheaper and less risky, not to bother. The compound has been validated in combos though. So you can see their dilemma. If it works they will make 100 times that in sales over the length of the patent. We have to hope they get a partner with deep pockets or they unconditionally give it back.

I never know if you are trolling or not, WH? Sareum didn't have any say in the deal. There wasn't anything they could agree to. The subject has been answered here so, so many times!

If there is any way to speed up the process up they will be looking at it. India hasn't reached the peak yet, Turkey has had a surge in cases and others will follow. Time is of the essence. We could well hear something in the next couple of weeks. We are going to have to partner with someone to run a trial. The question is will it be for Covid only? Or will it include 1801 autoimmune candidates too? If the Covid play is successful, I don't think we'll be here by the end of the year.

Not sure what your point is, steady?

Couldn't join the meeting but just looking at the slides now. It looks like Severe Respiratory Diseases could well be a third TYK2 Programme? SDC1803? or SDC1801a? It would make sense as they would be able to licence them all separately. It also strengthens the secret patent theory.

IMO the sp is irrelevant at this stage. The SP will rerate directly in line with Sales when/if it goes into patients. Let the mms do what they want.

I now can't join the call. Got a work call to do. Fanni will be proud of me. I'm not expecting anything out of the ordinary. Just a bit of context around what we already know. Maybe see if Parker seems confident, if he speaks. I think he will.

Fadec, they never artificially raised the price before. I have no reason to think they'd do it now. They may well raise and i would be ok with it. I think it's confidence of getting over the first big hurdle.

Fannibaws. I'm not one for ramping and I do have a day job. But it was Parkers tweet that piqued my interest. The bullish tone to it and the fact he was retweeting the PM says to me, he is confident we will go into P1 with 1801 in Covid by the summer. By the end of the year we might be seeking approval. It doesn't matter how many different ways you look at it. The projected sales figures are huge. Not everyone will catch cancer or get an immune disease but literally everyone on the planet can catch Covid. I think I can take some time out of my working day to get excited about the prospect that Sareum could treat anyone that gets ill. . :-) right place, right time.

Even if we on license are are bottom of the food chain. Based on the projected figures, we could be looking at 20p a share in divi's.

Project market size is 88 billion for 2021. Just a 10% share of that is 8.8 billion and a 10% royalty is 880 million pa while ever Covid is around. The SP would easily be over a pound just based on Covid. Yes there is only a small chance we get there but if we do!