Member Info for potnak

Agree Lazarus. Covid 1801 isn't nailed on just yet. Quite a few hoops to jump through that are largely out of our control so keeping one eye on the original indications is good. Especially if the covid play doesn't pan out. I do however, think we will be partnered up before the end of the summer though. The risk/reward thing is right in the sweet spot for both parties.

Thanks Num. I had not seen these yet. I like the answers. Nice and balanced against the bull in a China shop view on this board recently. Think we need a steady hand on the tiller. The science has to come first and we shouldn't lose sight of why 1801 and 1802 were developed in the first place.

4p by June and a 10 bagger from there as we run to the end of the trial by the end of the year. If it gets approved, who knows.

Yes, I feel the same. Not stressed as such but disillusioned with the 'rat race'. Work, eat, sleep and so on. I've grown out of wanting a big house and sports car. Gimme a decent camper van and ill be off to the mountains whenever I can. SAR can do this for me. If not I'll wait until 60.

Hot - no one really knows, least of all, the experts here. I say that with respect but you need a personal plan for what you might do. For me, unless it went to a pound in a straight line I'd find it difficult to hold after 30p which is way more than I ever hoped for. If we see 40p. I'm out of here like a flash. That's the figure I've put on me retiring with a good lifestyle. I'd be happy to watch you guys go on to a pound though. I have plans in place to retire at 60 without SAR (i'm 51). SAR could save me 9 years wait.

Saw a virologist on TED a few years ago. Way before Covid and she said nature can come up with way better virus' than we can. The example she gave was an infected bat feeding on the wrong pig that comes into contact with the wrong farmer which results in millions of people dead. Bill Gates has been warning governments for years that they should prepare for this scenario. Conspiracy theorists generally can't take the facts that we are largely not in control of our destiny as humans so we make up a more logical answer. The human race is going to have to work hard to survive the next couple of hundred years.

Lol, I'm not thinking in the figures Thoth is (but I like them) I'm thinking that it may force the hand of any interested pharma to get in with a fair but early offer. It could be too late by the end of the year.

Your theory would also explain the reduction of milestones. The can easily pay 5 million from this 50 but 20 million would have been a big chunk.

Thoth, I was going to say P2b in my post. This will also save them triggering more milestone payments as still p2. IMO, the trial costs could be met but milestones payments will stack up as they progress through the process. The milestones alone are £290 million! At least it will be moving again, if this is the plan.

Still don't think that is enough. Maybe enough for a small combo trial but certainly not enough to go through p3.

It's 50 million dollars worth.

On May 7, 2021, the Company filed a prospectus supplement (the “May Prospectus Supplement”) with the SEC in connection with the offer and sale of an additional $50 million of Shares pursuant to the Sale Agreement.

Thoth, yes and I think Parkers tweet was a hint of confidence that 1801 will be going into P1/2. If that happens, the sp could quickly surpass any offers we may have already had. I honestly think we are in a high stakes poker game. Where the timing and content of an official offer will be key.

Sad - Yes, I agree. I think they will on license or give it back whilst retaining some royalties for their trouble.

Yes, the data looks to be good and has been validated by some eminent scientists but IMO that isn't the issue. As yet, it hasn't been trialed in combo and it is going to cost a lot to do that with no guarantee of success. Just a guess, but say Dilly needs to find 500 million dollars to run trials and pay milestones just to prove efficacy, then they have to show enough of an improvement to push it for approval and pay more milestones. It's a big gamble and IMO the main reason they haven't done anything yet. This is what Dilly means when he says giving it deep thoughts. I reckon he was hoping for a big lift on the back of Momo so he could raise for 737 and it hasn't happened.

Yes, I think there is some truth in that. I believe we will have had offers but they probably didn't come near to what Tim and the board think the fair value is. Covid might blow the doors off 1801 and then they will have to pay it. 737 might be a little insurance policy in case TYK2 goes awry. As I said, I'm excited.

Baton - well she is the expert but I did say combo looks good so I agree with her. All I'm saying is, if SRA737 was a nailed on blockbuster, we wouldn't be having this conversation. Sierra are in a situation where they have to stump up a lot of money to see if it is a blockbuster if it isn't, it will finish them off regardless of if momo is going anywhere or not. I'm bullish for SAR and excited for what the next few months will bring but as Utar always points out. If our compounds were that good, we'd already have deals for them.

Pronai, now Sierra did do a good job on pushing 737 through trials but some LTH here seem to forget that as trials progressed and data was collected it was shown it wasn't great as a mono therapy. The indications that Sierra aimed to target were reduced until we are where we are. What I'm saying is the compound isn't what Sierra first took on and all the anticipated developments and ways to fundraise had to be re examined. We shouldn't look at the compound through rose coloured specs. Sierra will have to find hundreds of millions of dollars to fund something that, If it failed would finish them off. With that said, The data for combo looks like it could be good so who knows. Not sticking up for Sierra but a bigger company might have already pulled the plug on it.

On the valuations. I don't think we'll get the chance to decide. We are at the point where the risk is worth a billion or 2 of any Pharmas money and Covid could tip the balance this year.

The simple answer is to provide vaccines and treatment at near cost to developing countries but full price to the ones that can afford it. India is a no brainer. They manufacture most of it anyway.

I wonder if a potential partner has asked for this change? After they have done due diligence? Generally, in pharma. It's easier to officially target a small amount of indications but if a potential pharma has a hole in their pipeline. They'd want it plugging and protected.