Member Info for potnak

Simple really, Cobalt. Nothing is certain and the only sure fire way to not lose money on AIM is to not be invested in the first place. Loads will pile in when they see it moving.

Yes, the NEDS and the sheer numbers of shares in retail investor hands mean we should get a fair deal. Not having institutions on board may actually be a blessing for us.

I'd like to know this too. The only takeover I've ever had stock in was, weirdly the one I talked about below. I had share save options and some in my trading account too. The company was bought by an American equity company. We got an announcement out of the blue. The shares were suspended and all we got the average mid-price from the previous days trading or something like that. It was a sh*t deal for the retail shareholders But the CEO had options worth £18 million so he was laughing all the way to the bank. It also took weeks if not months before we could get at our cash.

Yes, Thoth. That happened to me once. Not options but a share save scheme. I didn't lose the shares but I did lose the opportunity to sell them at a higher prices. Took months for my shares to convert into cash too. The sale price had been agreed as part of the TO.

My missus is a teacher. One of her colleagues tested positive a couple of weeks. She was vaccinated 8 weeks beforehand. It was a mild case and she would have gone into work had it not been for the compulsory testing they have to do twice a week. I still think we have all got to catch this but the vaccine should mean most have little or no symptoms. Some, unfortunately will have symptoms and that's where SAR come in (hopefully).

Hi Stoney. This has been the UK approach right from the beginning. The idea has always been to trickle patients into hospitals but not let them overflow. The independent inquiry announced yesterday will find this to be true but who's to say it was the wrong or right way? You home and Australia did very well in keeping the virus out but you have to open back up to world travel at some point. India took their eye off the ball and even announced victory over the virus before this latest wave and it hit them hard. I reckon, in the UK, we have had our last lockdown. Boris and the cabinet are well aware there could be a 3 wave coming but are choosing to follow the same strategy we have done from the start except, we will now manage the flow of infections with testing and treatments. If 1801 does actually work then we are in the right place at the right time.

I'm thinking this is a distinct possibility. SDC1803. Makes it easier licence all three.

Yeah, I think my Conservative 10p is realistic with no intervention in the shape of a TO or major licensing deals. But we could also do a 40 bagger like SNG.

They sometimes don't appear for a bit. I get my RNS from the stock exchange and even that email was delivered after Krone posted this.

This consultant might be a millionaire in a couple of months.

Do you not think we'll get a relatively low ball offer, Thoth? I just don't think we'll be allowed to go as far as a pound. I know RMM said he'd wait until June to get his calculator out but I think a TO is coming but at what price?

If you use the same percentage gain that's a 40 bagger. What are people's thoughts on potential deals? I think that 1801 for covid will have made making a deal much more complicated. As I understand it. We wouldn't be able to on license 1801 Covid without the Licensor getting 1801 immune as well. That is unless the secret patent is for covid and we will have a new compound, 1803 for respiratory diseases? With this in mind, I still think we may get a TO offer come in. We are in the risk-reward sweet spot for both parties.

It will have tinib at the as it's a Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor.

I'd say at this stage in SAR history, this is the epitome of a closed period. In talks with potential partners, about to apply for 2 CTA's and possibly a third by the end of the year.

Bit of a risk still, I'd say. The science isn't decided on the antibody treatments yet. The P3 trial will get to the bottom of it. As I said it's a good exercise to follow these companies when not invested. It's a good way to set your own expectations and exit strategies.

The comparison is the market cap. They have a Covid treatment in P3 and the AIM market has valued them between 200 and 300 pounds. We can give all the valuations we think we should be at but without anything tangible such as orders, the market will decide what the actual value is.

Yes, not competition. More a comparison of what the market might value SAR at. We will also see what happens if it goes awry for them. Carnage, presumably but it's good to follow these things from afar as it were. Are you a holder of SNG Krusty?

By the time we go into P2 with 1801 for Covid, we'll have done the CTA for 1801 in Immune and SRA737 might be moving again so really difficult to work out but realistically we should be around 10p going into Q4.

I've been looking around to try and find a similar company already in P3 with a Covid treatment to try and work out what AIM investors might value SAR at. The most likely candidate is Synairgen. Currently in P3 and the market cap has seen highs of £300 million but currently sitting at £200 million. A similar valuation for SAR in P2/P3 should see us between 6p and 9p. Possibly a 10 bagger from there on approval. I think on our standard indications for 1801 and 1802 we should be at 2.5p. I'm not sure SRA737 is even factored in at this stage so we should see 4p going into P1. All guesswork really. The market is fickle and unpredictable. It could go either way but for my own plans that is what I'm going with for now.

Thanks Gekgo. Yes interesting. It could be a tense H2 for all of us! They won't need a P3 if they can show efficacy in P2 or P2a. P3 will be done on the population at large just like the vaccine.

Question for any if our biotec experts. Realistically. Assuming we can get some healthy humans for the trial. What is the shortest amount of time a P1 can run for? Are there any long term side effects for established TYK2 we'd need to wait for? Even if fast tracked.