Member Info for potnak

My favourite podcast. They've done immune system, cancer and virus' in other shows. Funny and informative.

The best prediction I can make, for realism. It'll between 0 and 50p in the next 12 months. Place your bets. Think of it this way, Its a 50/1 horse. Do you like a flutter?

I wish Lazarus had put the magic 28p in there, just for fun. :-)

In terms of rerates and valuations. It is probably a good time to start thinking in terms of MC rather than SP. Lazzerus kindly put this handy list together.

Current sp = £86.88m market cap
8p = £261.68m market cap
10p = £327.1m market cap
20p = £654.2m market cap
25p = £817.75m market cap
30p = £981.3m market cap.

We know the size of other TYK2 deals and some of the high-end ones were for 800 million (inc milestones) and we have 2, possibly 3 of them to licence. That's a potential 2.4 billion if they get to market. We have at least £70 million in milestones to come from SRA737. So assuming all compounds get into P1\P2 the numbers above don't look as big as they once did.

Just on Bassers point. Depending on where (if) Covid fails. The data collected will still help fasttrack 1801 and 1802. Even better. The government will pay for the research.

That's 425 million plus royalties. Nice! Add another billion for our other assets and it a deal.

I do follow you Fadec. Dont want to give my name as I'm easily identified on twitter so I just lurk I the shadows.

There is one major thing I keep forgetting to put in my post. An accelerated Covid trial. Validate the safety of 1801 autoimmune and 1802 cancer to the point where the P1 trials for those will already have a lot of data. This is unimaginable luck for us and IT means any planned P1 trials can be designed around what we already know. 1801 and 1802 will sail through P1 because if this. Another massive reason to delay the CTA, IMO.

That's great Lazarus. Like you said easy to work out but handy for some here. My 8p was based on SNG's MC just about to enter P3 with their interferon treatment. That's where we should be once in trials. We also know the value of past licensing deals, Ahfam will probably be able to furnish the board with them. As I see it we now have TYK2 x 3 + SRA737. If all were licensed we should be around the 20p mark in P1. RMM is much better at this sort of thing though.

I am but don't tweet much. Think I follow you Fadec.

Yes, Fadec. I contradicting my own posts but we've hit this sweet spot where the big pharma really don't have anything to lose. Their MC would rise by at least the same amount they would have to pay for us and it it did work in humans, they win big time.

Yes, krusty. My initial 18k is probably more like 8k now. My current retirement plans don't feature Sareum so that would be a big bonus if it happened.

Apart from 737. Everything else is preclinical. Do you know what the chances of failure are? Huge. I've been happy to risk approx 18k on this long shot for a long time. I have several exit strategies but If another option is offered to us. I'd take it.

I'm with Utar but I guess it depends on personal circumstances. At 51, I'm ready to make some changes in my life. so a TO would bring the opportunity to do that. I don't know what fair value is. but 8p should be possible going into P1 and probably 10 x that if approved for Covid. Could well be over a pound when you put all compounds together but what discount would a pharma put on that the take us out? Don't forget that Mike Owens managed to get £1.5 billion for Kymab not that long ago so he isn't new to the big numbers.

On the subject of a TO. I Have to agree with Leggster here. We are in the sweet spot for all three parties. The company has no plans to develop new compounds, the shareholders are getting a bit jaded with it all but we are seeing progress and added value, finally and whoever wins the auction could be getting something of very high value with the added bonus that the Covid element will instantly add value to their own MC. It's win, win, win. I've no idea what fair value is and I'm not saying it will happen but the stars have aligned. I guess it all depends on what the price is.

Yes, but, Aber. They had to tell us of delays to 1801 CTA. What better way than to do it in a trading statement where they can make a good **** sandwich. 1801 Covid good - 1801 CTA delay bad - promising movements in Sierra good. It makes perfect sense and much better than an RNS to say we are late again. It's how I deliver bad IT news to clients. :-)

Roll on the end of the study. Also keen to see what RMM's notepad looks like on completion of the study. :-)

also on TO talk. There is a danger that the SP will run away with itself and fly past any informal offers that may have been mooted. Which, as others have said, might force an auction this summer. If we see a rerate on P1 news. Then bidding might start at £1 billion, not end there. We've just got to hope that the confidence shown in the RNS is warranted, then its breaks off.

Hi WIP. It is my understanding that this is one of the Regulatory reasons as to why we have the NEDS on board. An offer would be made but Tim and John, with large shareholding, are in no position to advise the shareholders to accept or reject the offer so that duty would fall to NEDS. From experience, it goes like this. Offer made, the company alerts the shareholders, the NEDS review and advise what we the shareholders should do. We don't have to take that advice though. It keeps everything above board. We'd probably be suspended too.

Quite bobber, I wish all my past holdings had an 'idiot' in charge. Tim is responsible for a £60k tax free profit in my account too, the dimwit.