Member Info for potnak

That's what u think Ahfam. Covid is kind of a loss leader. The big prize is autoimmune but in the Covid casino. Any company that licences it off us will probably increase in value because of it.

There are two things here. The Covid play, which if we were just one year more advanced (or even on time) it would be in clinics now. The other is our two flagship TYK2 compounds. I said this yesterday, a failure or even a result that's just a bit meh could damage the potential of the compound. We can't rely on the government to do the right thing as they've pinned all hope on the vaccines, dexamethasone and an acceptable level of death and disruption. Tim and the board will only put 1801 into trials if 1801 immune is protected from any negative trial results. Sareum are a drug discovery company, the business model is to discover compounds and create value for the shareholders by on licensing them. IMO, we shouldn't stray too far from that model. I actually believe that is still the plan. Licence 1801 and let the pharma decide if the covid play is worth it. If it works we win anyway. Whatever happens. Tim thinks it is happening this year because they kicked 1801 immune into next year. There is no reason to do this unless A, we are going to trial 1801 for Covid this year or B, it won't be our compound for much longer.

No conspiracy, lowest bidder who can supply numbers needed and plenty of back handers for the ones doing the deals. All done in plain sight and if there was an election tomorrow, they'd still win. We are in the age of the libertarian.

Cheers HBD, she has been seeing a gut health guy but I will mention it.

Jeez Thoth. I haven't so much had a sniffle since 2019. Unless I've been asymptomatic? Got to be third time lucky for you :-) On a unrelated point. A good friend of mine who suffers from Fybromyalgia and Chronic Fatigue Syndrome has temporarily cured after having the pfizer jab. Both conditions now thought to be rooted in autoimmune. She is literally a new woman. SAR may come the rescue there as well.

Mafuta, its speculation but, yes I believe the same logic. The fact is a failure in a badly designed trial for 1801 Covid could finish 1801 off before its even got started. I'm sure this is keeping Tim and John awake at night. Where as a privately run trial by a big pharma could be designed free of government interference. IMO, the autoimmune indications have to be protected. That's what I/we, invested in.

SOG. Personally, I think agile will limit what we can do. 1801 is much more than a Covid play and unless Sareum intend to go it alone into trials, I think whoever licences 1801 will want to control the trials so the data can be used to back up the immune side of things. There is a downside to this though. Will they still get fast track status? I'm still of the opinion that we will on license 1801,small up front with big backend Covid milestones and more milestones when autoimmune trials get going. I don't think some here grasp that this 3rd wave will be done and dusted before we will be anywhere near handing out tablets.

Aye, Ahfam, IMO, Dr Owen will be pivotal in what happens next. TM's statement of 'exploring other funding options' might mean having a looks at Owen little black book. I think this is where out HNWi has come from. I think an on licence of 1801 this year then 1802 next year then full TO.

Absolutely agree, no politics in here but whatever you ideology is. Boris is a liability and unfit to run the country. Saying the other side would be worse is just letting the government off the hook. Maybe I'm more altruistic than most here but I hope Boris' plan works and we don't need Sareums potential treatment. The leftist in me would rather everyone be ok than a select few be rich from the ensuing misery for the rest. I'm off out for the day. Have fun all.

If you want an insight into Boris world. Have a read of Dominic Cummings Twitter and blog. There is very rarely a plan A let alone a Plan B. He calls Boris the shopping trolley.

Yes, pirate. I don't see the fact Boris probably doesn't know about Sareum as a bad thing and as Thoth's says. If this goes wrong, we will hit peak panic towards the end of Aug to Mid September. Lockdown will be back and we will need other options.

I'd bet good money that the homework is vaccines, Dexamethasone and collateral damage. I wonder what the acceptable level of death is? I would also bet that Boris and his political advisors have never heard of Sareum. Van Tam and Whitty will probably be aware of Sareum though.

Boris is taking a massive gamble and he knows it. He's got a big chunk of the population onside though. 52% for opening up 48% think it's a bad idea. Same as Brexit. Opening up is a vote winner because it is being billed as Freedom. His rich mates also get to make some money again. If the gamble pays off, he's a hero, if it doesn't his fans will say at least he tried. I just think he's a phukwit. As Thoths keeps saying, keep you and yours safe, that's all you can do.

L2 looking good too. MM's would probably make more taking it up now. Just need a little volume and FOMO.

We're going to be too late for this summer surge but the panic and the potential winter surge might help us on our way.

I'm in agreement RMM, not sure about the timescales though. News on 737 or Covid will see us go to 12p, IMO. If news on both we may push 20p. Rising as the Covid trials progress. That's is unless we licence 1801 then we will rerate according to the deal size and upfront. I don't mind the really big valuations, they could happen but no way will they happen in the short term. Patience and balls of steel are required for a seat on the train to poundland.

It does play on my mind a bit Trim but I console myself by firing up my spreadsheet, putting in the live price and seeing the potential 6 figure profit I still have. However, I don't count my chickens until they hatch so for now I have approx 5k invested here and that's it. If I lose, that's all I lose. End of.

HBD i think there may be a tenuous link to the Gates foundation but because my guess is the HNWI is someone who made a fair bit with Michael Owen on the Kymab deal. The Gates Foundation was an early investor in Kymab. Michael Owen may be the single most important person on the Sareum board in regards to what happens next.

Yes, and made even more inevitable by the last two RNS. I very rarely criticise Sareum and have trust in the board to deliver value to the shareholders. However, the last two RNS, read without rose coloured specs on reveal a story of delayed compound development. 1801 immune will be more than a year behind when it finally starts up in 2022 and the warrants email yesterday is a yellow flag. You can argue or believe what you want but warrants being exercised nearly always make a stock decrease in value, not least because there is a small dilution to the number of shares in issue. Investors often see them as a crutch for the company to lean on. Do we really need to lean on this crutch? Anyway, now to my criticism. Sareum and boards members teased the market with tweets and retweets prior to the POC end. We've had nothing since. They just released a non-comital RNS with no context that IMO, was deliberately ambiguous. I'm hoping all the above is because discussions are in progress. I'm a LTH holder here and I will hold because I believe what I have just written. T

Some interesting posts overnight and a couple of food for thought posts from Krone, SOG and Citizen.

So I'm going to make my weekly prediction of a Thurs 11am RNS. A broken clock is right twice a day.