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All we know for sure is the potential, if and it's a big IF, the drugs work then the potential value is huge.

We don't know that the secret patent is anything to do with Covid and I know Ahfam will come back and say it has to be because of the timing it was lodged but we don't know really. The comment by JR saying "the world will find out" again, might just be a turn of phrase. He was asked a question and answered, the guys here took on board his comments and ran with it. We all speculate, we all dream and we all have our own strategy. Mine is to keep a level head and read all the research with a critical eye and not get bogged down in the echo chamber.

Having said the above, it's worth noting that I'm a LTH with a sizable holding at today's prices and I'm happy to risk my paper profit until all compounds are in P2 at least. I agree with Utar here, that the bottom is the last subscription price. I'd even go as far as saying the options at 10.25 should be nailed on. Lots of price sensitive news to come this year, even if it isn't the big one just yet.

Yes, it is concerning unless the next gen TYK2 compounds are better.

Still unclear for Sareum’s TYK2 though. The FDA, in this case see TYK2 as the 4th JAK. I personally would like to see SAR reference this decision with some positive spin.

Echo what everyone else has said, Notalot. Keep your chin up and take each day as it comes. Hopefully, SAR will put a smile on your face (financially at least).

Do any of our resident expert know if these concerns are just present in the 1st gen JAK compounds?

https://endpts.com/fda-warns-of-heart-related-events-cancer-blood-clots-and-death-for-jak-inhibitors/

I mean, if out next gen compound doesn't have the same safety concerns then the price for our TYK2 just went up.

The trouble with p/e and income valuations is we have no income and probably won't have for a few years, or ever. I think we'll be taken out before income starts to roll in. My target is 16p to 96p as Per RMM's valuation. I'd be happy anywhere in that range. Every chance we will see 16p this year.

Ahfam, I honestly hope you are correct and my personal targets are wrong. :-)

When talking about SP and valuations. Most numbers are plucked out of the air. add to that the fact that most don't give a timescale with their valuations and it is a minefield. You might have done this already but have a read through some older RNS. They mention comparable deal sizes that have been done by other companies. They also mention the stage the compound was at when it was sold. P1, P2, and P3. It makes a huge difference to the value of a compound. Our CHK1 compound is at the p2/p3 stage. It isn't great on its own but could be very good in combo with another compound. This is the news we are waiting on, who will we combo with? News of a P3 combo could double the SP on its own. The TYK2 1801 and 1802 are still preclinical. They have a good safety profile but need trialing in P1, in healthy humans to be sure. It's a risk against the potential here. Will a pharma risk big bucks to get hold of the compound or will they wait until we know it is safe for humans. I have no idea but if we take TYK2 into P1 trials and get good tox results, it will put another 10p on the SP and a TO will have to be at a premium of that MC. Then we have Covid, completely unknown. I personally believe that Immune has been prioritized over Covid and I think we will develop 1801 as a respiratory indication, possibly with its own patent and if this Covid side play is successful, it could blow the doors off. However, at the current time, we have no idea how the pandemic will pan out, what governments around the world will deem as acceptable deaths, etc. I said it yesterday but my go-to valuations are what RMM came up with. The one before the covid amendment. :-). Check it out, if you can find it on here. The Sp will bounce around until tangible news but other than the intraday movement worries. There is little risk in the near future.

SOG and MAF - I think Tim and the board have prioritised 1801 Immune and Covid will be developed as another indications. They said as much by saying developed in parallel. The 1801 compound needs be protected and trials need to be designed in the best interests of the compound, the company and the shareholders. A rushed Covid trial with the government interfering in timescales and pricing could be devastating to the compound if it failed to meet the endpoint. The HNWI subscriptions gives SAR a cash runway to take 1801 into P1 ourselves then on licence. So with no immediate funding worries the board can sit at the negotiating table with some control and the option to walk away if needed. If this is the case then they have played a blinder by getting them onboard at the amounts subscribed and they haven't even given away too many voting rights.

I think we can all agree that the near future is rosy. No need for unrealistic valuations. It's a multi-bagger from here and if no tox issues, it's relatively risk-free until the end of P1 on all compounds or a failure for 737 in P3 whichever comes first.

Unite, yes and the beauty is we can all cash out as and when we reach our personal risk\reward SP. Mine is 40p. If we get a sniff of 40p i'll be selling but I'd be more than happy for the rest of you to go on to a pound. In fact, I'd be rooting for it to happen for you all. There is a distinct chance that with 737, patent news and CTA's filed. We could easily be at 20p this year.

SOG, yes, I personally do believe we have been talking to potential buyers. No official offers have been made though, they would have to notify shareholders if any offer was made. I think we will get an offer at some point in the next year but if we do, it won't be anything like £15 billion. Honestly, the best valuation summary with the most realistic chances of being correct I've seen is RMM's pre covid valuations. Which depending on what stage of development we are at was 16p to 96p if my memory is correct. I'm not saying we won't be worth more than that in the coming years but no one clarified the timescales of a TO so it's hard to give a valuation.

No way will we get 15 billion on TO. No pharma is going to pay market value for Sareum, mainly because we aren't anywhere near getting market with any of the compounds. If we wait and go it alone we might get to a 15 billion valuation in 5 or 10 years but it is a big IF.

Taking comparable deals for TYK2 and CHK1 then the potential is around £800 million for each TYK2 and maybe 1 billion for a P3 CHK1 (we only hold 27% of that though) so: 800 + 800 + 250 . Covid, who knows? we'll be very lucky if 1801 for Covid is ready for sick patients by next summer and we won't know how big that market is until we get there. Then we have the SKIL platform, how much is that worth?

IMO the most we would be offered in a TO would be 2 billion.
£800 million x 2, something for Covid and £250 million. All this is based on a TO in the current stage of development. If you really want the big bucks, you'd have to take on the risk and wait until the drugs get to market or at least into P3.

It’s nice to dream but if big pharma thought we’d be worth £15 billion one day. They’d be offering £2billion right now and I’m pretty sure our NEDS would be recommending we accept the offer.

Utar. I was born and still live in Sheffield, coincidentally, I live in Hillsborough approx 5 minutes walking from the ground so I hope I get an invite. Sheffield changed a lot since the 90's and it took a long time to recover from the Thatcher years. Now, the pandemic has hit the city hard too. Loads of closed shops etc and it feels like the early 90's again But I wouldn't live anywhere else. Where I live I'm 20 minutes from the town centre and 20 minutes from the Peak District.

Thoth isn't well. Lasting damage from Covid. Think he needs a transplant but I'll let him answer this question.

Absolutely, Krone. No Investor Meet, no Proactive Investor interviews. It's not like Tim hasn't got anything to shout about. Maybe he can't shout because he has been gagged?

I dont know, Ahfam. I have on occasion typed in SAA rather than SAR and nearly soiled myself when seeing the SP :-)

amongst all those. I think we will get Completion of pre clinical tox studies, and priority indications e.g which illness do we want to trial it in. This will be quickly followed by a CTA (or 2). If they really want to commence trials in early 2022 then the CTA will need to be filed by end of Sept. It usually takes 30 days for an initial response but can take 90 I believe. Then we have to find some healthy humans to test it on. There is a lot to do this year to make the deadline of early 2022 and all of it should add value to the SP as the FOMO builds. Add your list, Mafuta and we could be in for a roller coaster ride.

Yes, and probably the catalyst for proper talks to begin.

Yes, I'd say so. Maybe 3 separate RNS. End of pre clinical. Choice of indication (if not Covid) and CTA or maybe 2 x CTA one for immune and one for Covid. Covid could be funded externally and we might fund P1 immune ourselves (like we did with 737). Lot of news due and I think they will separate it all to keep the forward momentum.